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Torrey Smith, James Jones, and the Josh Huff Comparables
dailyemerald.com
dailyemerald.com

Currently projected as a 3rd-4th round pick, Josh Huff finds himself in an interesting part of the draft: well after the big name WRs, but well ahead of the UDFA types, in the “mixed bag” section of prospects. While there have been some good players of his size taken in that part of the draft, there’ve been a lot more busts. Just what kind of prospect is Huff?

The Comparables

NAME MAXYR DP  MAXAGE WT  FORTY  YPG  TDPG  GMSDOM  DR
JOSH HUFF 2013 75        22.23 206     4.51      87.69    0.92              9.0    0.34
NAME MAXYR DP  MAXAGE WT  FORTY  YPG  TDPG  GMSDOM  DR
TORREY SMITH 2010 58        21.94 204     4.41      81.15    0.92              9.0    0.34
DOUG GABRIEL 2002 167        22.27 213     4.52    103.08    0.92            10.0    0.33
JAMES JONES 2006 78        22.75 207     4.54      74.42    0.83              7.0    0.38
MARKUS WHEATON 2012 79        21.91 189     4.45      95.69    0.85            10.0    0.35
DWAYNE BOWE 2006 23        22.30 221     4.51      76.15    0.92            16.0    0.32
CHRIS GIVENS 2011 96        22.08 198     4.41    102.31    0.69            11.0    0.36
JUSTIN MCCAREINS 2000 124        21.98 209     4.51    106.18    0.91              8.0    0.48
MIKE WALKER 2006 79        22.02 209     4.35      98.17    0.58            11.0    0.35
ROBERT MEACHEM 2006 27        22.27 214     4.39      99.85    0.85            11.0    0.38
DAMIAN WILLIAMS 2009 77        21.60 197     4.52      84.17    0.50            12.0    0.36
Average 80.8        22.11 206.1     4.46      92.12    0.80            10.5    0.36

 

Just like Huff’s draft projection, his comparable players are a mixed bag. My first observation would be that this is a pretty hopeful set of comps for a potential 4th round pick. Except for Markus Wheaton, who is expected to get a big opportunity this year, every comparable player has been a useful NFL receiver for some length of time.

Next, I’d look at his TD/G rate, which is very solid. As Jacob Myers noted, that’s an important attribute for any smaller receiver to have, if they’re going to succeed in the NFL. It’s also worth noting that Huff’s Phenom Index score is not only above average, it’s very similar to Dwayne Bowe‘s (1.275 v 1.277), and it’s better than the similarly sized but more hyped Marqise Lee.

The only mild concern is the relatively low number of Games Dominated, but at the ADP he’ll likely be available at in your rookie drafts, I’d be willing to overlook that. In March dynasty startups, Torrey Smith is going at pick 48, Marqise Lee at pick 75, Markus Wheaton at pick 100… and Josh Huff at pick 218. At that price, the potential production suggested by his comps represents crazy value, with minimal risk.

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