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An Obsession With Game Flow and Fantasy Scoring: Tight End Target Market Shares



Outside of heavy, lengthy receivers, my main passion when it comes to football is gathering an understanding of game script and its impact for fantasy purposes. Quickly, I’m going to tell you why I’m fixated on it and why I believe it’s important to understand it for projecting players in regards to their future use.

If you’ve followed my work previously, you already know that I’m not really big on cumulative data. I’ve written about consistency for each position and reinforcing the reason of why you shouldn’t even select a mid-round quarterback anymore despite the brand names still on the board.

One thing I really don’t care for when it comes to the offseason is the heavy promotion of cumulative data. Too often we’re looking forward at the upcoming season and looking back on seasons past as a big picture event when the fantasy season is a fragmented affair. There are 13 weekly fantasy seasons for you get through, and hopefully a few more if you played your hand correctly.

One statement that really drives me nuts is when someone says the words “well, he was WR15 last year” or “he was QB3 overall”. Those facts are pretty hollow now, and they were at the time you were setting your weekly lineups. Cam Newton sure looks like a peach when looking back at 2013, but ask the owner who started him every week and see how he feels when he collected all of the six top 12 weekly finishes that Cam had. Overall points definitely matter, but it’s more about how you’re getting them.

Back to game script. When I’m looking at the prior season(s), I want to scale it down to find the most predictable data that is likely to repeat itself and start from there. Rarely do I see projections based on expected snap counts and percentage of expected usage on either a micro or macro level. They exist, but they are scarce.

Getting a general sense of what players were constantly placed in favorable and unfavorable game situations is where I like to begin, mostly looking at how a player was used when his team was in neutral game situations. If a player is highly involved when the offense is in lock step with the scoreboard, he’s a guy the coaches are trying to use to establish a lead. I want those guys.

What I don’t want is to necessarily chase guys tacking on junk stats at the end of games. I enjoy them in the moment and I’ll gladly take them, but those aren’t points that you want to set out and aim for. I want guys on pass heavy clubs that I expect to have to throw a lot, but you’re leaving yourself vulnerable chasing “garbage time”.

You know what good teams end up doing? Running the football. A lot.  Not just good teams from a season perspective, but generally favorites in a given week as well. This is why combo backs are important, even if they are on bad teams. Tying yourself to a back that is one dimensional in either direction exposes you to losing him when the game goes off the rails.

I can go on further about this, but I’ve already given some examples, and you can go and use some of the mighty sim apps here at House Rotoviz. I broke down target distribution for receivers and their use in the WR Sim App, and running back targets and rushing attempts for the RB Sim App. Today is all about the tight ends. You can find the TE Sim Score App here, and here’s some fun you can have with it.


As a refresher, here is the league wide play calling splits per situation with all QB rushing attempts treated as runs.


Pass %

Run %

Ahead 4Q



Ahead 10+












Behind 10+



Behind 4Q



Now that we’re all caught up, let’s look at the results.

Situation Sensitive Target Influence by Player

PlayerTeamTargetsTgt W/Lead%Tgt Tied%Tgt Trail%Tgt Down 10+%Tgt 4Q 10+%
Jimmy GrahamNO1426344.4%2316.2%5639.4%1611.3%53.5%
Tony GonzalezATL1212218.2%2419.8%7562.0%3528.9%1714.0%
Jordan CameronCLE1183731.4%1512.7%6655.9%3832.2%2420.3%
Antonio GatesSD1132320.4%3732.7%5447.8%2320.4%98.0%
Greg OlsenCAR1114540.5%2724.3%3935.1%119.9%21.8%
Jason WittenDAL1114338.7%1917.1%4944.1%1311.7%00.0%
Charles ClayMIA1022322.5%2827.5%5150.0%1918.6%109.8%
Martellus BennettCHI942324.5%2021.3%5154.3%3133.0%1010.6%
Julius ThomasDEN904853.3%1314.4%2932.2%910.0%00.0%
Garrett GrahamHOU891415.7%1213.5%6370.8%2123.6%33.4%
Coby FleenerIND872326.4%55.7%5967.8%3135.6%89.2%
Delanie WalkerTEN861011.6%1112.8%6575.6%1820.9%1214.0%
Jared CookSTL851618.8%89.4%6171.8%3338.8%1821.2%
Vernon DavisSF845160.7%2226.2%1113.1%11.2%11.2%
Scott ChandlerBUF812125.9%1518.5%4555.6%2024.7%1214.8%
Heath MillerPIT782329.5%1417.9%4253.8%1924.4%67.7%
Brandon MyersNYG761519.7%1114.5%5065.8%3242.1%2127.6%
Tim WrightTB761317.1%1317.1%5065.8%2634.2%1418.4%
Jermaine GreshamCIN682435.3%2435.3%2029.4%811.8%22.9%
Rob GronkowskiNE661319.7%1522.7%3857.6%1421.2%00.0%
Brandon PettigrewDET631422.2%1523.8%3454.0%914.3%46.3%
Tyler EifertCIN602033.3%1931.7%2135.0%1118.3%46.7%
Mychal RiveraOAK601728.3%915.0%3456.7%2440.0%1626.7%
Jordan ReedWAS5923.4%1118.6%4678.0%2033.9%1220.3%
Rob HouslerARI57915.8%1424.6%3459.6%1831.6%1322.8%
Zach ErtzPHI562239.3%814.3%2748.2%1526.8%916.1%
Zach MillerSEA563460.7%1119.6%1119.6%35.4%00.0%
Andrew QuarlessGB53713.2%713.2%3973.6%1120.8%35.7%
Dallas ClarkBAL521019.2%1223.1%3057.7%1223.1%35.8%
Brent CelekPHI512141.2%917.6%2141.2%1325.5%611.8%
Logan PaulsenWAS5048.0%918.0%3774.0%2040.0%1428.0%
John CarlsonMIN48612.5%612.5%3675.0%1429.2%816.7%
Marcedes LewisJAX471327.7%714.9%2757.4%1531.9%714.9%
Kellen WinslowNYJ47919.1%48.5%3472.3%2144.7%1123.4%
Kyle RudolphMIN46613.0%919.6%3167.4%1839.1%1328.3%
Lance KendricksSTL46919.6%817.4%2963.0%1430.4%919.6%
Ed DicksonBAL431432.6%920.9%2046.5%818.6%37.0%
Owen DanielsHOU41922.0%1331.7%1946.3%1229.3%37.3%
Sean McGrathKC401742.5%1025.0%1332.5%12.5%00.0%
Jeff CumberlandNYJ40922.5%1025.0%2152.5%1640.0%717.5%
Clay HarborJAX35411.4%617.1%2571.4%1748.6%925.7%
Jermichael FinleyGB342058.8%720.6%720.6%12.9%00.0%
Dennis PittaBAL33824.2%13.0%2472.7%1648.5%721.2%
Anthony FasanoKC331339.4%618.2%1442.4%618.2%515.2%
Jim DrayARI32721.9%1031.3%1546.9%412.5%26.3%
Joseph FauriaDET30723.3%1136.7%1240.0%00.0%00.0%
Benjamin WatsonNO301136.7%413.3%1550.0%516.7%13.3%
Ladarius GreenSD29517.2%827.6%1758.6%26.9%00.0%
Ryan GriffinHOU28414.3%13.6%2382.1%1553.6%725.0%
Luke WillsonSEA281450.0%828.6%621.4%00.0%00.0%
Jacob TammeDEN251664.0%312.0%624.0%28.0%14.0%
Bear PascoeNYG20420.0%525.0%1155.0%630.0%15.0%
Michael HoomanawanuiNE191052.6%526.3%421.1%00.0%00.0%
Vance McDonaldSF19736.8%315.8%947.4%315.8%210.5%
Gary BarnidgeCLE18633.3%316.7%950.0%422.2%211.1%
Cory HarkeySTL18844.4%211.1%844.4%211.1%15.6%
Fred DavisWAS18211.1%211.1%1477.8%1055.6%211.1%
Chase FordMIN16425.0%531.3%743.8%318.8%16.3%
Levine ToiloloATL15320.0%00.0%1280.0%853.3%426.7%
Gavin EscobarDAL15746.7%426.7%426.7%213.3%16.7%
James HannaDAL15640.0%426.7%533.3%213.3%00.0%
Brandon BostickGB1400.0%17.1%1392.9%642.9%214.3%
Jeron MastrudOAK13323.1%538.5%538.5%430.8%215.4%
Virgil GreenDEN12975.0%18.3%216.7%216.7%00.0%
Tony SchefflerDET1218.3%18.3%1083.3%433.3%433.3%
Weslye SaundersIND11436.4%00.0%763.6%545.5%19.1%
Michael EgnewMIA11218.2%19.1%872.7%327.3%218.2%
Dion SimsMIA10330.0%440.0%330.0%110.0%110.0%
Josh HillNO10660.0%110.0%330.0%110.0%00.0%
Zach SudfeldNYJ10330.0%00.0%770.0%220.0%110.0%
David PaulsonPIT10220.0%00.0%880.0%440.0%440.0%
Jake BallardARI900.0%444.4%555.6%111.1%00.0%
Lee SmithBUF9666.7%111.1%222.2%111.1%00.0%
Joel DreessenDEN9666.7%00.0%333.3%00.0%00.0%
Ryan TaylorGB9222.2%111.1%666.7%333.3%00.0%
Allen ReisnerJAX900.0%00.0%9100.0%888.9%555.6%
Niles PaulWAS800.0%225.0%675.0%337.5%112.5%
Chris GraggBUF700.0%114.3%685.7%571.4%457.1%
Jack DoyleIND7571.4%00.0%228.6%00.0%00.0%
Tom CrabtreeTB7114.3%114.3%571.4%114.3%114.3%
Taylor ThompsonTEN7114.3%114.3%571.4%114.3%00.0%
Alex SmithCIN6116.7%116.7%116.7%116.7%00.0%
Kevin BrockKC6233.3%350.0%116.7%00.0%00.0%
Larry DonnellNYG6116.7%116.7%466.7%350.0%350.0%
James CaseyPHI6350.0%00.0%350.0%00.0%00.0%
John PhillipsSD6233.3%233.3%233.3%116.7%00.0%
Craig StevensTEN6116.7%116.7%466.7%116.7%00.0%
Nick KasaOAK500.0%00.0%5100.0%480.0%480.0%
Dante RosarioCHI400.0%125.0%375.0%125.0%00.0%
Kellen DavisSEA4375.0%00.0%125.0%00.0%00.0%
Garrett CelekSF4250.0%00.0%250.0%125.0%125.0%
DJ WilliamsJAX3266.7%00.0%133.3%133.3%133.3%
Danny NobleJAX300.0%133.3%266.7%266.7%266.7%
Dominique JonesKC3133.3%266.7%00.0%00.0%00.0%
Matthew MulliganNE300.0%00.0%3100.0%133.3%00.0%
Konrad ReulandNYJ300.0%00.0%3100.0%266.7%133.3%
Nate ByhamTB3133.3%00.0%266.7%133.3%00.0%
Chase CoffmanATL200.0%00.0%2100.0%150.0%00.0%
Billy BajemaBAL200.0%00.0%2100.0%00.0%00.0%
Steve ManeriCHI2150.0%150.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%
Dwayne AllenIND22100.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%
Matt SpaethPIT2150.0%00.0%150.0%00.0%00.0%
Visanthe ShiancoeTEN2150.0%150.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%
Kory SperryARI100.0%1100.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%
Justice CunninghamIND100.0%00.0%1100.0%00.0%00.0%
Michael PalmerPIT100.0%00.0%1100.0%00.0%00.0%
Mike McNeillSTL100.0%00.0%1100.0%1100.0%00.0%
  • I’m starting with individual targets first because once again, Mike Clay from Pro Football Focus wrote another timely article that ties into what is going to be here. In that piece he wrote about depth and adjusted catch rates. Go over there and take a look at the list of guys who exceeded their expected catch rates. The list is littered with tight ends, and more importantly, tight ends who lead in the last two columns above. Completions are easier to come by when facing accommodating coverage because defenses are giving up space in the middle of the field as a tradeoff for clock. Jordan Cameron, Tim Wright and Tony Gonzalez  all took advantage of those situations.
  • Cameron had 29 catches for 268 yards down by two scores or more, roughly a third of his entire output in both areas. Cleveland attempted 198 passes down double digits, sixth most in the league. For perspective, Seattle threw just 21 times all season in similar spots. The good news is he only had one touchdown in those situations, and Josh Gordon has yet to thrive in the red zone through two seasons. He’s still the Browns primary option for touchdown success near the paint.
  • Coby Fleener accumulated 68 percent of his targets with the Colts playing catch up and 36 percent down two scores. The app likes his body of work, painting his high end projection as a low TE1. With the return of Dwayne Allen, Reggie Wayne and the acquisition of Hakeem Nicks, combined with his increased usage in negative game flow, it’s easy to push him off of your radar this summer.

Situation Sensitive Market Share of Targets

PlayerTeamTeam Att. W/Lead% of TgtsTeam Att. Tied% of TgtsTeam Att. Trailing% of TgtsTeam Att. Down 10+% of TgtsNuet Tgt %Neg. Change
Greg OlsenCAR19922.6%10725.2%16723.4%3928.2%23.5%-0.2%
Jimmy GrahamNO27323.1%10222.5%27620.3%10315.5%22.9%-2.6%
Vernon DavisSF22223.0%10521.0%9012.2%254.0%22.3%-10.1%
Antonio GatesSD12718.1%16023.1%25721.0%9025.6%20.9%0.1%
Tony GonzalezATL13716.1%11620.7%40618.5%18019.4%18.2%0.3%
Charles ClayMIA14416.0%13820.3%31216.3%12115.7%18.1%-1.7%
Martellus BennettCHI11919.3%12915.5%33115.4%16119.3%17.3%-1.9%
Jason WittenDAL25017.2%11017.3%22621.7%5822.4%17.2%4.5%
Jordan CameronCLE19618.9%11013.6%37517.6%19819.2%17.0%0.6%
Scott ChandlerBUF14314.7%7919.0%30015.0%13814.5%16.2%-1.2%
Heath MillerPIT15514.8%8716.1%34412.2%18710.2%15.3%-3.1%
Zach MillerSEA21116.1%9212.0%1179.4%2114.3%14.9%-5.4%
Jared CookSTL11513.9%6412.5%32718.7%21015.7%13.4%5.2%
Mychal RiveraOAK13412.7%6015.0%32510.5%22210.8%13.4%-2.9%
Julius ThomasDEN35713.4%9913.1%21913.2%7312.3%13.4%-0.1%
Garrett GrahamHOU10613.2%9412.8%43314.5%19910.6%13.0%1.5%
Delanie WalkerTEN8811.4%7614.5%36917.6%10617.0%12.8%4.8%
Jermaine GreshamCIN21411.2%16414.6%2099.6%948.5%12.7%-3.1%
Tim WrightTB1359.6%7218.1%30716.3%17714.7%12.6%3.7%
Brent CelekPHI17911.7%7112.7%2588.1%1399.4%12.0%-3.9%
Zach ErtzPHI17912.3%7111.3%25810.5%13910.8%12.0%-1.5%
Marcedes LewisJAX10712.1%6311.1%4226.4%3035.0%11.8%-5.4%
Coby FleenerIND18412.5%588.6%34017.4%18017.2%11.6%5.8%
Jeff CumberlandNYJ929.8%7912.7%3096.8%1739.2%11.1%-4.3%
Owen DanielsHOU1068.5%9413.8%4334.4%1996.0%11.0%-6.6%
Brandon MyersNYG13611.0%10410.6%32715.3%16219.8%10.8%4.5%
Tyler EifertCIN2149.3%16411.6%20910.0%9411.7%10.3%-0.3%
Jermichael FinleyGB16412.2%1046.7%3022.3%1160.9%10.1%-7.8%
Lance KendricksSTL1157.8%6412.5%3278.9%2106.7%9.5%-0.6%
Logan PaulsenWAS508.0%9010.0%4717.9%2298.7%9.3%-1.4%
Jordan ReedWAS504.0%9012.2%4719.8%2298.7%9.3%0.5%
Rob HouslerARI1287.0%12810.9%31810.7%12514.4%9.0%1.7%
Brandon PettigrewDET1559.0%1758.6%30411.2%5715.8%8.8%2.4%
Ed DicksonBAL1718.2%969.4%3525.7%1395.8%8.6%-2.9%
Rob GronkowskiNE2016.5%12611.9%30112.6%7817.9%8.6%4.1%
Dallas ClarkBAL1715.8%9612.5%3528.5%1398.6%8.2%0.3%
Kyle RudolphMIN1065.7%8410.7%3568.7%16211.1%7.9%0.8%
Sean McGrathKC2397.1%1148.8%1936.7%521.9%7.6%-0.9%
Kellen WinslowNYJ929.8%795.1%30911.0%17312.1%7.6%3.4%
Luke WillsonSEA2116.6%928.7%1175.1%210.0%7.3%-2.1%
Jim DrayARI1285.5%1287.8%3184.7%1253.2%6.6%-1.9%
John CarlsonMIN1065.7%847.1%35610.1%1628.6%6.3%3.8%
Clay HarborJAX1073.7%639.5%4225.9%3035.6%5.9%0.0%
Cory HarkeySTL1157.0%643.1%3272.4%2101.0%5.6%-3.1%
Joseph FauriaDET1554.5%1756.3%3043.9%570.0%5.5%-1.5%
Anthony FasanoKC2395.4%1145.3%1937.3%5211.5%5.4%1.9%
Andrew QuarlessGB1644.3%1046.7%30212.9%1169.5%5.2%7.7%
Chase FordMIN1063.8%846.0%3562.0%1621.9%4.7%-2.8%
Michael HoomanawanuiNE2015.0%1264.0%3011.3%780.0%4.6%-3.3%
Ladarius GreenSD1273.9%1605.0%2576.6%902.2%4.5%2.1%
Jacob TammeDEN3574.5%993.0%2192.7%732.7%4.2%-1.4%
Jeron MastrudOAK1342.2%608.3%3251.5%2221.8%4.1%-2.6%
Benjamin WatsonNO2734.0%1023.9%2765.4%1034.9%4.0%1.4%
Bear PascoeNYG1362.9%1044.8%3273.4%1623.7%3.8%-0.4%
Dennis PittaBAL1714.7%961.0%3526.8%13911.5%3.4%3.4%
Lee SmithBUF1434.2%791.3%3000.7%1380.7%3.2%-2.5%
Vance McDonaldSF2223.2%1052.9%9010.0%2512.0%3.1%6.9%
Gavin EscobarDAL2502.8%1103.6%2261.8%583.4%3.1%-1.3%
Gary BarnidgeCLE1963.1%1102.7%3752.4%1982.0%2.9%-0.5%
Fred DavisWAS504.0%902.2%4713.0%2294.4%2.9%0.1%
James HannaDAL2502.4%1103.6%2262.2%583.4%2.8%-0.6%
Ryan GriffinHOU1063.8%941.1%4335.3%1997.5%2.5%2.8%
Dion SimsMIA1442.1%1382.9%3121.0%1210.8%2.5%-1.5%
Virgil GreenDEN3572.5%991.0%2190.9%732.7%2.2%-1.3%
Jack DoyleIND1842.7%580.0%3400.6%1800.0%2.1%-1.5%
Josh HillNO2732.2%1021.0%2761.1%1031.0%1.9%-0.8%
Zach SudfeldNYJ923.3%790.0%3092.3%1731.2%1.8%0.5%
Weslye SaundersIND1842.2%580.0%3402.1%1802.8%1.7%0.4%
Jake BallardARI1280.0%1283.1%3181.6%1250.8%1.6%0.0%
Niles PaulWAS500.0%902.2%4711.3%2291.3%1.4%-0.2%
Kevin BrockKC2390.8%1142.6%1930.5%520.0%1.4%-0.9%
John PhillipsSD1271.6%1601.3%2570.8%901.1%1.4%-0.6%
Joel DreessenDEN3571.7%990.0%2191.4%730.0%1.3%0.1%
Visanthe ShiancoeTEN881.1%761.3%3690.0%1060.0%1.2%-1.2%
Craig StevensTEN881.1%761.3%3691.1%1060.9%1.2%-0.1%
Taylor ThompsonTEN881.1%761.3%3691.4%1060.9%1.2%0.1%
James CaseyPHI1791.7%710.0%2581.2%1390.0%1.2%0.0%
Levine ToiloloATL1372.2%1160.0%4063.0%1804.4%1.2%1.8%
DJ WilliamsJAX1071.9%630.0%4220.2%3030.3%1.2%-0.9%
Ryan TaylorGB1641.2%1041.0%3022.0%1162.6%1.1%0.9%
Michael EgnewMIA1441.4%1380.7%3122.6%1212.5%1.1%1.5%
Kellen DavisSEA2111.4%920.0%1170.9%210.0%1.0%-0.1%
Tom CrabtreeTB1350.7%721.4%3071.6%1770.6%1.0%0.7%
Dominique JonesKC2390.4%1141.8%1930.0%520.0%0.8%-0.8%
Larry DonnellNYG1360.7%1041.0%3271.2%1621.9%0.8%0.4%
David PaulsonPIT1551.3%870.0%3442.3%1872.1%0.8%1.5%
Dwayne AllenIND1841.1%580.0%3400.0%1800.0%0.8%-0.8%
Steve ManeriCHI1190.8%1290.8%3310.0%1610.0%0.8%-0.8%
Garrett CelekSF2220.9%1050.0%902.2%254.0%0.6%1.6%
Tony SchefflerDET1550.6%1750.6%3043.3%577.0%0.6%2.7%
Danny NobleJAX1070.0%631.6%4220.5%3030.7%0.6%-0.1%
Alex SmithCIN2140.5%1640.6%2090.5%941.1%0.5%-0.1%
Nate ByhamTB1350.7%720.0%3070.7%1770.6%0.5%0.2%
Chris GraggBUF1430.0%791.3%3002.0%1383.6%0.5%1.5%
Matt SpaethPIT1550.6%870.0%3440.3%1870.0%0.4%-0.1%
Dante RosarioCHI1190.0%1290.8%3310.9%1610.6%0.4%0.5%
Kory SperryARI1280.0%1280.8%3180.0%1250.0%0.4%-0.4%
Brandon BostickGB1640.0%1041.0%3024.3%1165.2%0.4%3.9%
Allen ReisnerJAX1070.0%630.0%4222.1%3032.6%0.0%2.1%
Chase CoffmanATL1370.0%1160.0%4060.5%1800.6%0.0%0.5%
Billy BajemaBAL1710.0%960.0%3520.6%1390.0%0.0%0.6%
Michael PalmerPIT1550.0%870.0%3440.3%1870.0%0.0%0.3%
Justice CunninghamIND1840.0%580.0%3400.3%1800.0%0.0%0.3%
Mike McNeillSTL1150.0%640.0%3270.3%2100.5%0.0%0.3%
Nick KasaOAK1340.0%600.0%3251.5%2221.8%0.0%1.5%
Konrad ReulandNYJ920.0%790.0%3091.0%1731.2%0.0%1.0%
Matthew MulliganNE2010.0%1260.0%3011.0%781.3%0.0%1.0%
  • Looking at Market Shares of the total team targets, you can see why 2014 will still need an injury to occur to Antonio Gates if you’re hoping that LaDarius Green can make a true impact. Gates was fourth in neutral target shares for all tight ends and his percentage hardly moves no matter what the scoreboard read. Green’s role may expand, but it’s a massive road block right now. Even if Green gets equal involvement like what he had weeks 10-12, the app only likes him as a low TE1.
  • I’ve found out this offseason that I’m one of the few Jordan Reed pessimists out there. His target market share in neutral spots was 30th out of tight ends. Now, he missed a chunk of time, but look who is right there tied with him, teammate Logan Paulsen. That shows you that the position was used the same way no matter who was in; it’s just that Reed was better with the targets. When you factor in that Washington threw 40 more times than any other team while trailing this past season, you can see where my doubt creeps in. The Shanaclan is out of town now, but tight end coach Sean McVay is staying on board to call plays and Jay Gruden has a sketchy history of using tight ends that were high draft picks.  Not only can we expect Washington to improve as a team (at least more than 2013), now he has target regression coming with the additions of DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts.
  • Heath Miller may not be the best tight end in football like Bruce Arians claims, but he should be a target if you’re forgoing an early round selection at tight end. Miller was plenty involved in the base offense when Pittsburgh could stay there and is now a full year recovered from his torn ACL. The Steelers still have a WR unit that stacked together couldn’t play center in the NBA, and Miller himself is the lone scoring option with a prior red zone pedigree. In 2012, he led the NFL in conversion rate inside the ten yard line, catching seven of 14 targets for touchdowns.
  • One last guy I really want to mention is Charles Clay. He has the sixth highest percentage of neutral shares at the position. This came on a team that threw on 67 percent of their offensive plays and 62 percent of the time while leading. Bill Lazor is coming in and has a history of being involved in balanced offenses. Clay stands to benefit the most if Miami becomes a consistent offense and is already their prime red zone option, converting four of nine targets inside the ten yard line for scores.

Mess around with the tables yourself and have fun with the apps. I will have more game situation based information to share as we roll into summer.

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