The original Star Wars trilogy created many characters that have remained popular since their release. Darth Vader, Yoda, Obi-Wan and others have been on just about any piece of merchandise that can be sold. One of the most popular characters that has actually gained popularity as time goes on is Admiral Ackbar. Ackbar is some fish-like species I suppose, who has like four or five lines total in Return of the Jedi. Despite his lack of lines, his “IT’S A TRAP!” has been quoted and turned into roughly 3,934,248 internet memes.
I’m kind of obsessed about game flow and the impact it has on our fantasy game. I’m not quite yet Kevin Spacey, seven deadly sins obsessed, but let’s just say I have some empty boxes laying around if it ever comes to that. I’ve looked at the effect that the scoreboard has on play calling and distribution of touches for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, but the most enlightening one from my end, was the quarterback game flow piece.
In that piece, there was a trend that was flashing like a neon sign. Quarterback performances followed suit with the scoreboard. For nearly every quarterback, their adjusted yards per attempt and touchdown to interception ratio plummeted when trailing. Something that is counter intuitive to what many believe when we’re pursuing fantasy points on a weekly level.
Let’s go back to week 14 of last year. Streamers and daily fantasy players were downright giddy over the prospects of starting Ryan Fitzpatrick versus the Broncos. Fitzpatrick was dirt cheap still, coming off of four consecutive weeks of scoring 15 or more fantasy points and was going to have to match the highest scoring offense in NFL history point for point. Even if they were getting dusted, the majority of the community was content having Fitzpatrick wing it around for two quarters plus. We got our wish, as the Titans lost 51-28, with Denver running a season high 98 offensive plays. Only Fitzpatrick proceeded to complete 13 of 24 passes for 172 yards and only one score. He finished with 9.3 fantasy points and was the 29th ranked quarterback that week.
RotoViz’s Dr Strangelove has created this pretty incredible fantasy tool known as the Game Splits App. It’s pretty much the Bat Belt of individual performance dissection. Of course, my first inclination was “how can I apply this to Game Flow?”
Quarterback streaming is relatively a common approach taken by many. Quarterback scoring is at an all-time high with more individual quarterbacks scoring usable points than ever before. One of the things the app allows you to do is adjust player performance by final outcome of the game by deficit and adjusting the point spreads. If you’re adopting the streaming approach, or looking for dirt cheap daily bargains at quarterbacks, can you set your lineup by anticipating a team having to throw a lot from behind or play the point spread in your favor?
I took every starting quarterback in the NFL and a few select backups and ran their career performances through some rigorous pre and post game determinations. Not one single quarterback was better on average in terms of fantasy production in losses than in wins. As the loss became worse, QB points fell further and further.
Based on pregame spreads, quarterbacks who were underdogs entering the week scored below their averages and as the spread grew, so did the fall off in production. There were six quarterbacks who bested their scoring average as underdogs, but the only one with a significant sample size is Philip Rivers. Below is every relevant quarterback coming into the season and their performance based on staggering point spreads and game outcomes for their careers. Use the search filter and sort the columns for fun; the results are actionable.
| QB | PPG | Pts in W | Positive Change | Pts in L | Neg. Change | Loss By 3+ | Loss By 7 + | Underdog | Change | Spread 3+ | Spread 7+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 21.5 | 30.1 | 8.6 | 12.8 | -8.7 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 20.7 | -0.8 | 16.9 | 20.9 |
| Matt Stafford | 22.3 | 27.8 | 5.5 | 18.7 | -3.6 | 18.6 | 16.0 | 18.1 | -4.2 | 17.5 | 14.3 |
| Robert Griffin | 23.2 | 26.7 | 3.5 | 20.5 | -2.7 | 20.5 | 18.6 | 21.5 | -1.7 | 20.9 | 22.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 24.5 | 26.4 | 1.9 | 20.9 | -3.6 | 21.1 | 16.9 | 20.3 | -4.2 | 18.8 | 9.4 |
| Cam Newton | 24.5 | 26.2 | 1.7 | 22.7 | -1.8 | 22.2 | 20.5 | 25.2 | 0.7 | 24.7 | 27.7 |
| Drew Brees | 22.3 | 25.3 | 3.0 | 17.9 | -4.4 | 17.1 | 15.7 | 18.4 | -3.9 | 17.7 | 24.5 |
| Peyton Manning | 23.3 | 24.6 | 1.3 | 19.8 | -3.5 | 20.0 | 18.3 | 19.3 | -4.0 | 18.6 | 10.9 |
| Geno Smith | 15.1 | 23.9 | 8.8 | 6.4 | -8.7 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 15 | -0.1 | 15.4 | 16.6 |
| Tom Brady | 21.4 | 23.3 | 1.9 | 15.4 | -6.0 | 14.4 | 12.8 | 19.9 | -1.5 | 18.8 | 11.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 21.2 | 23.2 | 2.0 | 14.9 | -6.3 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 18.9 | -2.3 | 19.2 | 5.1 |
| Andrew Luck | 22.0 | 22.8 | 0.8 | 20.2 | -1.8 | 20.2 | 18.8 | 24 | 2.0 | 24.1 | 24.7 |
| Andy Dalton | 19.9 | 22.3 | 2.4 | 15.9 | -4.0 | 15.7 | 16.0 | 18.9 | -1.0 | 19.5 | 15.4 |
| Tony Romo | 21.4 | 22.1 | 0.7 | 20.3 | -1.1 | 20.1 | 16.9 | 19.8 | -1.6 | 19.6 | 21.3 |
| Jay Cutler | 18.2 | 21.6 | 3.4 | 14.3 | -3.9 | 14.3 | 14.3 | 16.9 | -1.3 | 16.9 | 16.4 |
| Mike Vick | 18.4 | 20.9 | 2.5 | 15.3 | -3.1 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 17 | -1.4 | 18.0 | 14.8 |
| Matt Ryan | 19.9 | 20.9 | 1.0 | 18.2 | -1.7 | 17.8 | 16.0 | 18.7 | -1.2 | 18.4 | 13.8 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 18.4 | 20.8 | 2.4 | 11.1 | -7.3 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 16.5 | -1.9 | 16.1 | 0.0 |
| E.J. Manuel | 16.6 | 20 | 3.4 | 14.3 | -2.3 | 13.2 | 11.1 | 14.6 | -2.0 | 13.9 | 19.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 16.9 | 19.9 | 3.0 | 14.2 | -2.7 | 13.7 | 11.2 | 16.8 | -0.1 | 16.7 | 11.9 |
| Philip Rivers | 19.4 | 19.8 | 0.4 | 18.8 | -0.6 | 18.9 | 18.9 | 20.9 | 1.5 | 21.1 | 23.8 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19.2 | 19.5 | 0.3 | 18.4 | -0.8 | 18.2 | 15.9 | 17.5 | -1.7 | 17.1 | 13.8 |
| Matt Schaub | 16.3 | 19.2 | 2.9 | 13.6 | -2.7 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 14.9 | -1.4 | 15.5 | 15.8 |
| Eli Manning | 17.3 | 18.9 | 1.6 | 15.3 | -2.0 | 15.3 | 14.2 | 17.1 | -0.2 | 17.3 | 13.3 |
| Carson Palmer | 18.3 | 18.8 | 0.5 | 17.8 | -0.5 | 17.7 | 15.9 | 17.1 | -1.2 | 16.7 | 14.8 |
| Sam Bradford | 16.4 | 18.7 | 2.3 | 15 | -1.4 | 14.9 | 14.6 | 16.3 | -0.1 | 16.2 | 14.4 |
| Joe Flacco | 16.9 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 14.7 | -2.2 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 16 | -0.9 | 15.1 | 16.0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16.5 | 17.7 | 1.2 | 15.8 | -0.7 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 16.4 | -0.1 | 15.8 | 14.6 |
| Alex Smith | 14.8 | 17.4 | 2.6 | 11.9 | -2.9 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 12.2 | -2.6 | 12.3 | 10.9 |
| Jake Locker | 15.3 | 17.2 | 1.9 | 14.2 | -1.1 | 15.2 | 12.2 | 17.5 | 2.2 | 17.5 | 11.1 |
| Josh McCown | 12.4 | 17.1 | 4.7 | 10.3 | -2.1 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 12.1 | -0.3 | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| Mike Glennon | 16.2 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 16.2 | 16.6 | 16.8 | 0.6 | 16.7 | 18.3 |
| Matt Cassel | 14.4 | 15.1 | 0.7 | 13.7 | -0.7 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 14 | -0.4 | 13.2 | 12.7 |
| Chad Henne | 13.9 | 14.6 | 0.7 | 13.6 | -0.3 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 13.8 | -0.1 | 13.4 | 14.6 |
| Brian Hoyer | 5.9 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 4.3 | -1.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 9.7 |
This all would seem like common knowledge. Theoretically if you aren’t scoring enough real points to win actual football games, you likely aren’t going to produce enough counting statistics to make an impact in fantasy. Yet, we still pursue these types of QBs weekly. This also ties into the recent conclusion that Jonathan Bales has come to, that the top quarterbacks come with the highest probability of hitting their expected weekly output, which is value in itself. If you look at the most consistent quarterbacks from last season, the players who led in usable starts came from teams that won a lot of games.
Anecdotal Evidence From 2013
The probability above is heavy handed in favor of basing your quarterback selection on players whose team will likely be securing a favorable outcome. That’s not to say that a quarterback can’t post a usable week if his team loses, it just doesn’t come attached with good odds. Players such as Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson are sometimes neutered by their teams’ overall success. Tony Romo still notched the third best quarterback performance of the season last year in a loss to Denver.1 Those weeks are more sporadic than worth chasing though. Here’s a look at top 12 weekly finishes from 2013 based on game outcome.
*Outcomes based on Standard Scoring (25 PaYards = 1 Pt., 4 Pt Pass TD)
Scrapping week 17 since the majority of leagues don’t use it, leaves us with 192 weekly performances to look at. 126 of those came from quarterbacks who won the game, nearly eight per week. Since these are top 12 weeks, everyone here is scoring points, but again, you can spot the gap that stems from an offense being on script. As far as really elite weekly production, on average only 1.5 quarterbacks per week in the top six scorers were teams who failed to cash in a victory.
As usual, I love to share the fragmented data, so here you can find every top 12 finish from weeks one through 16 for you to sort and search through.
| Player | Team | Week | Finish | Pts. | OPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 1 | 1 | 46.28 | BAL | W |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 9 | 1 | 45.64 | OAK | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 5 | 1 | 40.94 | DEN | L |
| Josh McCown | CHI | 14 | 1 | 39.52 | DAL | W |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 2 | 1 | 34.9 | WAS | W |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 15 | 1 | 33.22 | MIN | L |
| Drew Brees | NO | 8 | 1 | 33.18 | BUF | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 4 | 1 | 32.72 | MIA | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 16 | 1 | 32 | HOU | W |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 11 | 1 | 31.88 | DET | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 13 | 1 | 31.82 | KC | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 3 | 1 | 31.78 | ARI | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 10 | 1 | 31.68 | DAL | W |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 6 | 1 | 30.68 | MIN | W |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 7 | 1 | 30.02 | DEN | W |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 12 | 1 | 27.78 | KC | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 5 | 2 | 35.76 | DAL | W |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 2 | 2 | 33.42 | SD | L |
| Tom Brady | NE | 9 | 2 | 33.18 | PIT | W |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 14 | 2 | 32.24 | CIN | L |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 16 | 2 | 31.64 | MIN | W |
| Alex Smith | KC | 15 | 2 | 31.18 | OAK | W |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 8 | 2 | 31 | NYJ | W |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 1 | 2 | 30.68 | GB | W |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 6 | 2 | 30.04 | TB | W |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 3 | 2 | 29.42 | NYG | W |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 13 | 2 | 29.1 | NO | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 4 | 2 | 29.08 | PHI | W |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 10 | 2 | 27.64 | MIN | W |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 7 | 2 | 27.48 | DET | W |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 11 | 2 | 26.56 | NE | W |
| Tom Brady | NE | 12 | 2 | 23.76 | DEN | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 14 | 3 | 31.78 | TEN | W |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 15 | 3 | 30.28 | ARI | L |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 2 | 3 | 29.86 | PHI | W |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 1 | 3 | 28.8 | DAL | L |
| Jake Locker | TEN | 3 | 3 | 28.76 | SD | W |
| Case Keenum | HOU | 9 | 3 | 28.6 | IND | L |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 8 | 3 | 27.96 | JAC | W |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 16 | 3 | 27.36 | CLE | W |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 13 | 3 | 27.32 | TB | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 10 | 3 | 27.1 | SD | W |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 7 | 3 | 26.32 | CHI | W |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 4 | 3 | 26.04 | DAL | W |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 6 | 3 | 25.18 | BUF | W |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | 11 | 3 | 24.46 | JAC | W |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 12 | 3 | 23.4 | OAK | W |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 5 | 3 | 23.02 | NO | L |
| Jason Campbell | CLE | 14 | 4 | 30.34 | NE | L |
| Matt Cassel | MIN | 15 | 4 | 29.18 | PHI | W |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 8 | 4 | 27.84 | TB | W |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 2 | 4 | 26.58 | ATL | L |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 7 | 4 | 26.28 | CIN | L |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 9 | 4 | 25.9 | NE | L |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 1 | 4 | 25.52 | WAS | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 3 | 4 | 24.76 | OAK | W |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 6 | 4 | 24.52 | CLE | W |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 10 | 4 | 23.86 | JAC | L |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 13 | 4 | 23.68 | ARI | W |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 12 | 4 | 23.4 | WAS | W |
| Alex Smith | KC | 4 | 4 | 23.22 | NYG | W |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 16 | 4 | 22.98 | ATL | W |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 11 | 4 | 22.96 | PHI | L |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 5 | 4 | 22.6 | IND | L |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 14 | 5 | 30.1 | IND | W |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 8 | 5 | 26.72 | DAL | W |
| Matt Flynn | GB | 15 | 5 | 25.66 | DAL | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 7 | 5 | 25.34 | IND | L |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 1 | 5 | 24.92 | OAK | W |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 9 | 5 | 24.84 | HOU | W |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 3 | 5 | 24.64 | BUF | W |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 2 | 5 | 22.96 | STL | W |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 10 | 5 | 22.92 | GB | W |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 11 | 5 | 22.88 | PIT | L |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 4 | 5 | 22.84 | NE | L |
| Thaddeus Lewis | BUF | 6 | 5 | 22.34 | CIN | L |
| Alex Smith | KC | 13 | 5 | 22.32 | DEN | L |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 5 | 5 | 22.06 | ATL | W |
| Alex Smith | KC | 12 | 5 | 21.46 | SD | L |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 16 | 5 | 19.98 | GB | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 14 | 6 | 28.82 | CAR | W |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 1 | 6 | 24.62 | SF | L |
| Jason Campbell | CLE | 9 | 6 | 24.48 | BAL | W |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 15 | 6 | 24.38 | NE | W |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 7 | 6 | 23.6 | CLE | W |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 2 | 6 | 22.9 | GB | L |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 11 | 6 | 22.62 | WAS | W |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 8 | 6 | 22.5 | MIN | W |
| Josh McCown | CHI | 13 | 6 | 22.2 | MIN | W |
| Christian Ponder | MIN | 3 | 6 | 21.72 | CLE | L |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 10 | 6 | 21.48 | ATL | W |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 5 | 6 | 21.28 | JAC | W |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | 12 | 6 | 20.56 | IND | W |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 6 | 6 | 20.48 | NYG | W |
| Tom Brady | NE | 4 | 6 | 20.44 | ATL | W |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 16 | 6 | 18.9 | CHI | W |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 14 | 7 | 24.76 | MIA | L |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 1 | 7 | 23.84 | SD | W |
| Alex Smith | KC | 2 | 7 | 22.62 | DAL | W |
| Alex Smith | KC | 11 | 7 | 22.4 | DEN | L |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 9 | 7 | 22.28 | TB | W |
| Jake Locker | TEN | 7 | 7 | 21.94 | SF | L |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 8 | 7 | 21.86 | WAS | W |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 3 | 7 | 21.6 | WAS | W |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 13 | 7 | 21.44 | NYJ | W |
| EJ Manuel | BUF | 15 | 7 | 21.42 | JAC | W |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 5 | 7 | 20.88 | KC | L |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 6 | 7 | 20.28 | GB | L |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 12 | 7 | 20.06 | MIA | W |
| Jake Locker | TEN | 4 | 7 | 19.66 | NYJ | W |
| Case Keenum | HOU | 10 | 7 | 19.34 | ARI | L |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 16 | 7 | 17.92 | SF | L |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 14 | 8 | 23.6 | PIT | W |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 1 | 8 | 23.6 | HOU | L |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 7 | 8 | 21.72 | TB | W |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 3 | 8 | 21.48 | JAC | W |
| Jason Campbell | CLE | 8 | 8 | 21.42 | KC | L |
| Brandon Weeden | CLE | 13 | 8 | 21.3 | JAC | L |
| Kirk Cousins | WAS | 15 | 8 | 21.24 | ATL | L |
| Josh McCown | CHI | 9 | 8 | 20.88 | GB | W |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 2 | 8 | 19.98 | NYG | W |
| Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 5 | 8 | 19.94 | SD | W |
| Matt McGloin | OAK | 11 | 8 | 19.58 | HOU | W |
| Brian Hoyer | CLE | 4 | 8 | 19.46 | CIN | W |
| Mike Glennon | TB | 6 | 8 | 18.92 | PHI | L |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 10 | 8 | 18.66 | CHI | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 12 | 8 | 18.52 | ATL | W |
| Chad Henne | JAX | 16 | 8 | 15.58 | TEN | L |
| Tom Brady | NE | 14 | 9 | 22.82 | CLE | W |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 13 | 9 | 21.08 | NYG | L |
| Alex Smith | KC | 8 | 9 | 21 | CLE | W |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 7 | 9 | 20.76 | TEN | W |
| Tom Brady | NE | 15 | 9 | 20.56 | MIA | L |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 9 | 9 | 20.5 | CLE | L |
| Drew Brees | NO | 1 | 9 | 20.48 | ATL | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 3 | 9 | 20.4 | STL | W |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 2 | 9 | 19.92 | TEN | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 4 | 9 | 19.34 | SD | L |
| Drew Brees | NO | 5 | 9 | 19.32 | CHI | W |
| EJ Manuel | BUF | 11 | 9 | 18.7 | NYJ | W |
| Josh McCown | CHI | 12 | 9 | 18.48 | STL | L |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 6 | 9 | 17.08 | HOU | W |
| Kellen Clemens | STL | 10 | 9 | 16.08 | IND | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 16 | 9 | 14.94 | WAS | W |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 14 | 10 | 21.76 | OAK | W |
| Tom Brady | NE | 13 | 10 | 20.84 | HOU | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 8 | 10 | 20.84 | DET | L |
| Drew Brees | NO | 15 | 10 | 20.52 | STL | L |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 7 | 10 | 20.52 | NE | L |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 1 | 10 | 20.48 | MIN | W |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 9 | 10 | 20.28 | MIN | W |
| EJ Manuel | BUF | 3 | 10 | 19.72 | NYJ | L |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 4 | 10 | 18.88 | JAC | W |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 5 | 10 | 18.76 | NYJ | L |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 2 | 10 | 18.64 | MIA | L |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 11 | 10 | 18.6 | MIN | W |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 12 | 10 | 18 | CAR | L |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 6 | 10 | 16.7 | BAL | W |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 10 | 10 | 15.36 | TB | L |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 16 | 10 | 14.38 | PHI | L |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 7 | 11 | 20.3 | ARI | W |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 1 | 11 | 20.06 | ARI | W |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 15 | 11 | 20.02 | TB | W |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 14 | 11 | 20 | MIN | W |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 13 | 11 | 20 | GB | W |
| Drew Brees | NO | 9 | 11 | 19.18 | NYJ | L |
| Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 3 | 11 | 18.84 | DEN | L |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 4 | 11 | 18.7 | SEA | L |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 2 | 11 | 18.5 | MIN | W |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 5 | 11 | 18.44 | OAK | W |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 11 | 11 | 18.38 | TEN | W |
| Brandon Weeden | CLE | 6 | 11 | 16.68 | DET | L |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 12 | 11 | 16.48 | TB | L |
| Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 8 | 11 | 16.12 | PIT | W |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 10 | 11 | 15.16 | BAL | L |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 16 | 11 | 14.14 | KC | W |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 14 | 12 | 19.96 | NYG | W |
| Terrelle Pryor | OAK | 1 | 12 | 19.88 | IND | L |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 15 | 12 | 19.7 | CLE | W |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 13 | 12 | 19.38 | BAL | L |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 9 | 12 | 19.04 | WAS | L |
| Brian Hoyer | CLE | 3 | 12 | 18.64 | MIN | W |
| Matt Cassel | MIN | 4 | 12 | 18.42 | PIT | W |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 5 | 12 | 18.06 | SEA | W |
| Mike Glennon | TB | 11 | 12 | 17.64 | ATL | W |
| Mike Glennon | TB | 7 | 12 | 17.54 | ATL | L |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 2 | 12 | 17.22 | ARI | L |
| Drew Brees | NO | 6 | 12 | 16.54 | NE | L |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 12 | 12 | 16.38 | CLE | W |
| Christian Ponder | MIN | 8 | 12 | 15.6 | GB | L |
| Christian Ponder | MIN | 10 | 12 | 14.26 | WAS | L |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 16 | 12 | 12.4 | NE | L |
There’s something to be said for offensive flexibility. When the offense has the entirety of their playbook open, defenses can be exposed because they are their heels. When the offense is so far off script and play calling shrinks down, it’s harder to effectively move the football, and in turn score fantasy points. Even when a defense has become accommodating in terms of trading yardage for clock, quarterbacks suffer a severe drop off in production. Even Peyton Manning only notched one top 12 week in a loss last year.
When you’re setting your weekly lineups and combing through waivers, the actionable thing to take from here is targeting guys who will be in favorable real game situations. If you’re planning on chasing points that stem from off script offense and an alluring point spread that will create those situations, remember the immortal words of Admiral Ackbar….
- Who was giving Dallas nine points. (back)
