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10 Most Undervalued Players from the Projection Machine Rankings

deangelowilliams

I recently published projections for the Top 32 Quarterbacks, the Top 40 Running Backs, and the Top 40 Wide Receivers using the RotoViz Projection Machine. Of those 112 players, 10 stood out as being tremendous values relative to ADP. Here’s a final quick look at those guys as everyone prepares for the biggest fantasy draft weekend of the year.1 The ranking and ADP refer to the players rank at that position.

10. DeAngelo Williams: Projection Machine RB31 ADP RB40

I put Williams at No. 10 because while he’s a great bargain, I doubt he’ll be a league-winner for you. Of course, that might not really be the case. Over the last four years, he’s scored like a clear starting caliber RB in games Jonathan Stewart missed. Williams frequently falls outside the Top 10 rounds and solidifies your Zero RB lineup at very little cost. He’s also one of FD’s RB targets.

DeAngelo Game Split

9. Robert Griffin III 6/10

Griffin also comes in near the bottom due to atrocious play during the preseason. Concerns about his “deteriorating fundamentals” may be misleading, irrelevant, or both. RG3 is the perfect fantasy weapon in part because he doesn’t need to be elite to score points. In 2012 Griffin played in one fewer game but scored only 10 fewer points than Peyton Manning.

8. Greg Jennings 32/52

A week ago Fantasy Gumshoe took an exhaustive look at Patterson versus Jennings. It’s a really cool piece using the Projection Machine and several other RotoViz apps to look at this question from every angle possible. He also comes to the conclusion that Jennings is the Vikings receiver to own in 2014.

7. Darren McFadden 33/43

Darren McFadden and C.J. Spiller are the same age. McFadden was the better prospect. Both have had similar, if fleeting, NFL success. Spiller is playing behind an undervalued veteran who’s still at the top of his game. McFadden sits behind a back who appeared washed up last season.

Kevin Cole penned an excellent piece on why McFadden is the perfect Zero RB candidate. Check out his customized Sim Scores for McFadden versus Maurice Jones-Drew.

McFadden Custom Projection Summary Jones-Drew Custom Projection Summary
Standard Half PPR PPR Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 9.3 9.9 10.5 Low 3.8 4.4 5.5
Median 10.3 11.7 12.7 Median 7 7.9 10.1
High 13.6 15.4 17.3 High 10.4 11.6 12.5

6. Tony Romo 4/12

Scott Linehan may not have the desired effect, but Romo remains one of fantasy’s biggest bargains. It’s not just the Projection Machine that’s enthusiastic either. The Sim Scores like the him in relation to his ADP.

5. Fred Jackson 21/34

Jackson should receive the bulk of the goal line work and quite a few targets in the passing game. Even if the Bills struggle, their expected number of totals plays makes him a safe and automatic pick for Zero RB drafters.

Jackson also compares favorably to other veteran backs. Here’s a look at Fred Jackson, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson from the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List.

Fred Jackson Frank Gore Steven Jackson
Standard Half PPR PPR Standard Half PPR PPR Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 4.3 5.8 6.8 Low 5.1 5.4 6.1 Low 2.1 2.6 3.1
Median 7.6 8.7 10.3 Median 8.3 8.8 9.3 Median 6.6 6.9 7.2
High 11.5 12.8 13.4 High 9.8 10.3 11.4 High 10.1 10.8 11.4

4. Mike Wallace 22/30

The buzz has been negative again for Wallace this preseason, but that’s made him very cheap to draft. Almost all of his downside is priced in. Earlier this season, the Fantasy Douche did a quick thought experiment showing Wallace has clear Top 10 upside.

3. Jeremy Hill 33/47

I’ve been writing all summer about Hill and still believe he could be the No. 1 rookie. Justin Bailey updates you on his successful preseason. The release of BenJarvus Green-Ellis eliminates any lingering questions. Keep in mind that Hill has the explosiveness to earn an even split with Gio Bernard. (These highlight yards per opportunity numbers come from my original look at Hill before the draft.)

Player Carries Yards Yds/Carry Hlt/Carry Hlt/Opp Block Success Rate
Jeremy Hill 203 1401 6.9 3.1 6.8 45.3%
Carlos Hyde 208 1521 7.3 2.9 5.0 57.2%

2. Rueben Randle 28/42

Randle is my No. 2 breakout WR, but he doesn’t even have to join the elite ranks to have a ton of value at his current ADP. If you draft him right now, you get him at a discount to a relatively conservative projection and get almost the entire breakout value at no cost. Here’s an example of the info used to create the Breakout Wide Receiving Rankings.

Dominator Rating Games Dominated Freak Score Age
41 11 57 23.7

1. Shane Vereen 13/22

Last year Vereen finished 11th in ppr scoring on a per game basis. He’s looked like even more of a weapon this preseason, running routes on 24 of his 44 snaps. As Asher Molk recently pointed out, Vereen might also be the key for Tom Brady.

 

Good luck to everyone in drafts this weekend.

Top 12 Quarterbacks
Late Round Quarterbacks: 13-32
Top 20 Wide Receivers
WR 21-40: Finding the Next Alshon Jeffery
Top 20 Running Backs
Zero RB Targets: RB 21-40

  1. If you’ve already drafted, these guys should be among your preseason trade targets.  (back)

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