Well, it was another forgettable week for the obscene number of lineups published for the Milly Maker. As I’ve mentioned in the past, the lineups are unique but are also highly correlated to the extent that they’re based on the projections that power the DFS apps. For two weeks in a row we’ve whiffed pretty badly on some of the key components of those lineups (which means that lots of the lineups will suffer). Last week Andre Johnson, Rueben Randle, and Mike Wallace were the primary whiffs. It would be easy to say that they were all close to being right, except they weren’t. Sure, DeAndre Hopkins was actually in the winning Milly Maker lineup, so Andre Johnson couldn’t have been a terrible play. And sure, the Dolphins absolutely handed it to the Chargers and scored a bunch of points that should have benefitted Mike Wallace. But close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, darts, golf.. actually there are a lot of things that close counts in. But it doesn’t count in fantasy football. Also, Rueben Randle was perhaps a terrible component to the lineups.
In any case, here’s the distribution of our lineups versus the field. The black line is the distribution of the field’s lineups. The red line is the distribution of our lineups. The black dotted line was our top projected lineup which had all of the “shit takers” listed above along with Andrew Luck, Andre Ellington, Ronnie Hillman, Jason Witten, and Keenan Allen. This is also the first week that none of the lineups would have placed in the top 50. Pretty gross.
Hopefully a rebound is on the way in Week 10. I’m actually not going to publish the unique lineups anymore for a couple of reasons. First, they really aren’t very well geared toward winning the Million. There’s not enough variance in them. Second, the Milly Maker is changing its format and increasing the buy in, while also making it more of a top heavy format. If you want a bunch of lineups you can always manually use the DFS apps and just blacklist players.