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My Favorite Dynasty Buy Low – Stefon Diggs

This post is part of a series of articles where various RotoViz writers name their favorite buy low for dynasty fantasy football, with a look at the 2016 NFL season and beyond. At the conclusion of the series, the authors will get together to rank the various nominations in one final post. In this installment, Shawn Siegele discusses his pick, Stefon Diggs.

Stefon Diggs doesn’t get the respect he deserves due to his size, timed speed, raw college stats, college injuries, and the nature of the Minnesota offense in which he played as a rookie.

After not playing the first three weeks, Diggs exploded for four consecutive games with at least 80 yards, scoring 2 touchdowns in the process. He then began to receive the kind of defensive attention you would normally associate with superstars, and he struggled, never again cresting 70 yards and only scoring two more touchdowns.

This extended dry spell to finish the season provides a buy low window. He’s currently going off the board as WR33, a big discount to his true value in the WR15-20 range.

As he did with DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson, draft savant and WR guru Jon Moore called his shot on Diggs and hit it out of the park.

Closest thing to Michelle Pfeiffer that you’ve ever seen

  • Did you know that Diggs averaged the same number of yards per team attempt as an 18-year-old freshman that Kevin White did as a 22-year-old senior? And did you know he did it while also rushing 20 times and returning 47 kicks, including two for touchdowns?
  • Did you know that Diggs earned a higher draft agnostic Playmaker Score from Football Outsiders than 2014 star prospects Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Allen Robinson?
  • Did you know that Diggs posted a career 0.40 market share of receiving yards, a number that puts him in rare company?1

Diggs elite HMTo help place that in context, here’s Diggs versus the non-Cooper 2015 first rounders.Diggs vs losers

 

  • Did you know that when comparing their excellent rookie seasons, Diggs earned a higher target market share (23 to 22) than Cooper and was more efficient (0.39 reFPOEPT to 0.31)?
  • Did you know that Marques Colston is the only other rookie receiver to be drafted in the 5th round or later and lead his team in receiving going all the way back to 1986?2

Final Thoughts

It’s possible you’ll have another buying opportunity after the 2016 season since Minnesota projects to be run-heavy behind Adrian Peterson for at least one more year. But even with head coach Mike Zimmer falling firmly into the conservative, run-the-ball-and-play-defense camp, the Vikings seem to understand that they must evolve and advance with their offense if they want to take the next step in joining the NFC elite. Considering the late season weather in Minnesota, it also can’t hurt that they’ll be moving into their new football palace for the 2016 campaign.

  1. Even stars struggled to get into this vicinity. A few disappointments like Earl Bennett, James Hardy, and Michael Jenkins reached the high 30s.  (back)
  2. At least I think this is the case based on some PFR searches.  (back)

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