Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker said his age probably cost him some money on the contract extension he agreed to on Friday. But he also admitted that because he has been a late bloomer as a pass receiver, there isn’t as much tread off his tires as there might be for a typical NFL player his age. Walker will turn 32 in August, and agreed to a reported $14.7 million extension over two years to stay with the Titans. He first signed with the Titans in 2013 after spending seven years with the 49ers, mostly as a second tight end to Vernon Davis.
Walker’s dynasty value is actually fairly high at this point. This is just one trade, but I saw Walker and a throw-in traded for the 1.10 rookie pick in a league I’m in. Even if Walker’s value isn’t that high in most leagues, he probably still commands a pretty hefty premium given the circumstances he’s in. Let’s think about why Walker’s value is likely to fall going forward.
He’s older, as the article above mentions. The Titans have also been consistent about their desire to run the ball. They also signed Rishard Matthews in the offseason, and Dorial Green-Beckham is one year more experienced. The perfect storm that allowed Walker to see 133 targets in 2015 will likely not materialize again.
You can see how important Walker’s 2015 production was to his dynasty value. Despite being a year older Walker is going about 50 spots earlier in startup drafts.
If Walker just drops down to his 2014 usage, which was 106 targets, at the end of 2016 his owners will have a player who will soon be 33 and who is seeing usage more in line with TE7-10. Old TEs with replaceable production tend not to generate great returns in dynasty trades.
For what it’s worth, in 2014 Jason Witten was coming off a TE5 finish and was going about where Walker is now. Here’s Witten’s graph from the Dynasty App:
Witten averaged 97 targets/season over the two years since his TE5 finish and yet his value is creeping closer to zero.
For more reading on the Titans offense see the following articles:
- Kyle Pollock said that Rishard Matthews was this year’s best free agent
- Anthony Amico said that Derrick Henry is going to be awesome
- Ben Gretch said that DeMarco Murray faces underrated challenges in the Titans offense