Be mindful of some very different average draft positions on ESPN and Yahoo, after a summer of being a degenerate immersed in fantasy football.
Earlier this week, we looked at the most underpriced players on both ESPN and Yahoo.
Now it’s time to look at the players that are the most expensive on those platforms, so we have an idea who we can probably not count on falling to us when constructing our rosters.
As a reminder, in order to scale for the variation of high picks being more valuable, I averaged ADP from ESPN with MFL10 ADP, weighed it against Yahoo (and vice versa), then divided it by the standard deviation (STDEV) from the Best Ball app.
While MFL10 is a points-per-reception best-ball scoring format, and ESPN and Yahoo’s rankings are for weekly management standard scoring leagues, some of the differences in average draft positions are significant enough as to still be exploitable.
Here are the top ten most overvalued players on each site, when compared with the other site, and MFL10 data:
Three guys that were in Yahoo’s most underpriced list, show up in the top three slots for ESPN’s overpriced list, in Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, and Bruce Ellington (update: Ellington was just placed on injured reserve with a torn hamstring).
This is a byproduct of them being so dramatically cheap on Yahoo as much as it is a result of them being expensive on ESPN, so I’m going to start ESPN’s list with those three removed, just to get more names in the article, instead of repeating ones.
1. JONATHAN STEWART
MFL10 80th overall, Yahoo 57th overall, ESPN 32nd overall.
This unfortunately has not corrected itself, which I noted as a possibility when detailing why Stewart has one of the best opportunities for any running back in football. Still a fine RB1 if you start wide-receiver-heavy at the end of the fifth, or top of the sixth round on Yahoo, he would have to fall mightily in an ESPN draft to be touchable.
2. SHANE VEREEN
MFL10 148th overall, Yahoo 251st overall, ESPN 135th overall.
Yahoo is badly undervaluing receiving backs on the whole, but Vereen is best suited for the PPR best ball format, which makes the fact he’s even higher on ESPN than MFL a bit strange.
3. MATTHEW STAFFORD
MFL10 133rd overall, Yahoo 168th overall, ESPN 113th overall.
Similar to Stewart, it sucks that ESPN has completely drained what had been a nice discount throughout the summer on the (formerly) undervalued Stafford.
4. T.J. YELDON
MFL10 96th overall, Yahoo 143rd overall, ESPN 87th overall.
Yeldon seems fairly undervalued at his MFL ADP, so ESPN’s really isn’t a painful reach to be avoided, but his Yahoo ADP just makes no sense.
5. RISHARD MATTHEWS
MFL10 124th overall, Yahoo 228th overall, ESPN 121st overall.
Despite Matthews looking like he might be a free agent prize, even before Dorial Green-Beckham‘s ouster, Yahoo might have this one right, as he played behind Andre Johnson and Harry Douglas in the Titans last preseason game
6. ZACH MILLER
MFL10 138th overall, Yahoo 242nd overall, ESPN 151st overall.
Again, this may just be a reflection of Yahoo’s underpricing more than ESPN’s overpricing. Miller is probably fine at ESPN’s ADP, and has a legitimate case to be your TE1.
7. JERICK MCKINNON
MFL10 139th overall, Yahoo 207th overall, ESPN 126th overall.
That kind of price, for what looks like a backup running back, is exactly what makes McKinnon a candidate to be this year’s Knile Davis.
8. DANNY WOODHEAD
MFL10 57th overall, Yahoo 130th overall, ESPN 72nd overall.
9. VINCENT JACKSON
MFL10 115th overall, Yahoo 191st overall, ESPN 118th overall.
Similar to Yeldon, Jackson had some cushion to give at his MFL ADP, and looks just insanely mispriced on Yahoo.
10. MARCUS MARIOTA
MFL10 142nd overall, Yahoo 165th overall, ESPN 120th overall.
A questionable receiving corps, and a pair of stud running backs, as well as much cheaper quarterbacks with similar upside, make it tough to confidently grab one of the best quarterback prospects ever that high.
1. TONY ROMO
MFL10 145th overall, Yahoo 102nd overall, ESPN 147th overall.
Romo’s ADP on ESPN and Yahoo will likely plummet in the coming days, following the revelation that he has a broken vertebrae. He will almost assuredly end up on an autopicked team in your drafts.
He is not rosterable in nearly any redraft format right now over guys with a legitimate chance to breakout early, and would be extremely difficult to hold through the bye weeks.
2. JULIUS THOMAS
MFL10 97th overall, Yahoo 75th overall, ESPN 110th overall.
What year is it? That price decimates any upside with Thomas.
3. CARSON PALMER
MFL10 102nd overall, Yahoo 53rd overall, ESPN 62nd overall.
If you’re selecting a quarterback 53rd overall, his name better be Newton, Rodgers, or even Wilson, Luck, or Brees, but it sure as hell should not be Palmer.
4. ELI MANNING
MFL10 110th overall, Yahoo 63rd overall, ESPN 73rd overall.
This would be a lot less palatable if I didn’t just see that Palmer is somehow ten spots higher, as Manning actually has some things working his favor for a monster season.
5. ZACH ERTZ
MFL10 91st overall, Yahoo 72nd overall, ESPN 95th overall.
Ertz should be a focal point of Doug Pederson’s new Eagles offense, but he might have a bit of a target problem, and that makes him a dangerous pick at the end of the sixth, or beginning of the seventh round.
6. DAVID JOHNSON
MFL10 7th overall, Yahoo 4th overall, ESPN 8th overall.
It would take some kind of Johnson enthusiast to pull him off the board at fourth overall, which may be too much even if he should be the first running back off the board.
7. PHILIP RIVERS
MFL10 121st overall, Yahoo 85th overall, ESPN 90th overall.
Late round QB may be the new black, but the mid-round QBs still seem overpriced on the whole this year, even the ones we like.
8. LADARIUS GREEN
MFL10 158th overall, Yahoo 136th overall, ESPN 209th overall.
Chalk one up for the boys in Bristol, as Green’s placement on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list means he will miss at least the first six games of the season.
He will probably end up on your waiver wire before he takes the field for Pittsburgh, and hopefully he can avoid being this year’s Jordan Cameron.
9. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
MFL10 90th overall, Yahoo 44th overall, ESPN 49th overall.
This may be just as bad as Palmer, as the multi-game absences of Green, Le’veon Bell, and Martavis Bryant, will make it very tough for Roethlisberger to return dividends on a sky-high fourth round ADP.
10. BLAKE BORTLES
MFL10 108th overall, Yahoo 68th overall, ESPN 81st overall.
RotoDoc’s machine learning thinks Bortles is the top regression candidate of 2016, and may have a similar outlook to Blaine Gabbert, Alex Smith, and Jay Cutler.