After a small slate on Sunday, we are able to get back into NBA DFS action with a nine-game slate tonight. During research for this slate, I didn’t really notice a lot of can’t miss value plays. There are a lot of players in tough matchups, but read on to see who to target, both value and chalk plays, on tonight’s slate!
Daily Fantasy Basketball Plays of the Day
John Wall $9,000 DK; $9,200 FD
He’s the top dog on FanDuel at the position, but comes in as the third highest fantasy option at the point guard position. For his price tag, Wall has been super valuable. At five times value tonight, Wall needs to hit right around 45 fantasy points, something he’s done in his past two contests. At the end of the day, this is all about the matchup. The Suns are an extremely poor defense and allow 1.08 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings to opposing point guards in road games this year. If you were to put that ratio up against Wall’s minutes, it would net him right around 35 DraftKings points. You have to then give Wall a boost in that projection, as he’s one of the top point guards, and that fantasy point per minute calculation is for all levels of point guards.
Goran Dragic $6,600 DK; $6,700 FD
Dragic might be a play that gets overlooked on this slate, due to the big names at the top, and the fact that he’s coming off of an injury. I’m a little hesitant on his minutes in a potential blowout matchup against the 76ers, but I like my chances if he’s hitting 30+ minutes again. In six games where he played over 30+ minutes, he’s eclipsed the 30 point fantasy mark on DraftKings. Obviously, at his mid $6000 price tag, you need a little more than 30 DraftKings points to hit five times value. Again, because of the poor 76ers defense, this situation should produce a higher fantasy outcome for Dragic.
No James Harden for me. He’s been a consistent player for about 55-60 fantasy points per game with a ceiling of 70+, but at his price tag, he’s just not worth it.
Dion Waiters $5,100 DK; $5,000 FD
Like Dragic, Waiters has an extremely good matchup here. Waiters has also gone under the radar, especially with Justise Winslow out lately. Waiters is still very volatile, as he’s had some games in the teens in terms of fantasy points. However, four of his past six games, Waiters has hit 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings, which has included the past three games, where Winslow has sat out. Good news for Waiters is that Winslow has already been ruled out for tonight’s game.
J.J. Redick $4,900 DK; $4,700 FD
I don’t typically like to tout “shooters,” but there really isn’t much depth at the shooting guard position tonight. Redick took only nine shot attempts last game out, but is averaging 13.4 shots per game over his past five. He also has a pretty impressive 52.3 field goal percentage over his past ten games. The only downside about Redick is the matchup here. Although it’s not the best matchup against Toronto, the Raptors will be playing their second game of a back-to-back tonight.
Kevin Durant $9,600 DK (listed as SF/PF); $9,900
At his respective price tags, Durant is still underpriced. He’s easily collected 50 or more DraftKings points in five of his past six starts, which clearly puts him above five times value. Although the majority of Durant’s numbers have taken a very small decrease since joining the Warriors, Durant has definitely made it up in the DFS realm. His points, rebounds, and assists are all slightly down, but he’s been able to limit his turnovers per game to just 2.3 and has increased his steals per game to 1.8. He’s not turning the ball over as much, because he has a surrounding cast that can help him out more than last season. Like Redick, Durant and the rest of the Warriors will be able to take advantage of a tired team, as the Pacers will be playing their second game of their back-to-back. Keep an eye on the status of Paul George. If George doesn’t play, that will certainly boost Durant’s value tonight, as he won’t have to go up against a tough defender in George.
James Ennis $3,900 DK (listed as SG/SF); $4,100 FD
Although this is a pretty healthy nine game DFS slate, there’s not too much value. Ennis is one of the few sub-$4,000 guys on DraftKings that I feel comfortable with rostering. He’s seen back-to-back 30+ minutes, and gets a good matchup against a faster paced Charlotte team. Ennis does come with some risk, but he has quelled that a bit over his past few games. Ennis’ usage rate is still the lowest on the team, but he’s still averaging over 30 minutes per game. At this point, he’s more of a quantity type player over quality.
Blake Griffin $8,500 DK; $9,100 FD
Despite the Clippers playing extremely slow, they’ve been involved in a lot of games where the over has ended up in the 230’s. Griffin has definitely benefitted from this, averaging 43.5 DraftKings points on the season. Griffin has put up an average of 49 fantasy points over his past three games. Like Redick, Griffin has been another important guy on the offensive side of the ball. He comes into this game with a 27.8 usage rate, the highest on the team. It’ll be a tough fought game between the Raptors, which should translate to a good fantasy game by Griffin.
Frank Kaminsky $4,400 DK; $4,300 FD
Kaminsky has now exceeded his value in three straight games. His price tag has gone up a little bit, but still, below from where his statistics should suggest. It’s in limited time, but Kaminsky has performed well against the Grizzlies.
He averages about 26 minutes against the Grizzlies, and he currently hitting that mark over his past four games. Kaminsky is also coming off of a game where he played 36 minutes. He typically is under a fantasy point per minute, so he will need minutes in the high 30 to payoff.
Andre Drummond $7,800 DK; $8,100 FD
At his price tag, Drummond is one of my favorite plays on the slate. You get a little bit of a discount from Hassan Whiteside and Karl-Anthony Towns, which plays into Drummond’s value tonight. He’s facing a weak defense in the Rockets, who rank in the bottom-ten of defensive efficiency. Although the Rockets do have one of the top rebounding rates, Drummond still should be able to get double digits in rebounds, something he’s done in all but three of his games this year. He also ranks tied for sixth with eight double-double’s on the year. Drummond’s scoring is a problem at times, but this is a nice matchup that should cater to him.
Al Horford $6,500 DK; $7,000 FD
You will have to keep an eye on to make sure Horford will play, as he missed nine games before his big game last time out. He should be good to go, as he is assumed to be fully recovered from his concussion. He exploded for a 18-11 double-double in that game back, and securing over 50 fantasy points on DraftKings. He looks to be a pretty big part of both the defensive and offensive side of the ball for the Celtics. I’m not sure if he gets to where he was in his past game, but he does have a low enough salary, where he could easily surpass his expected five times value. It’s not the best matchup between Towns and the rest of the T’Wolves, but Horford has played well in the past against this Minnesota team.