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NBA DFS Value Plays – Tuesday, November 8

Six games was apparently more than enough for the industry to roll out some of the largest guaranteed prize pools yet.

Of course, with large GPPs also comes a large number of entries. Fortunately, valuable players receiving extended minutes are available throughout player pools tonight. Feel confident in the following list of players, especially since most will allow you to then afford Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, and/or even LeBron James.

Point Guard

J.J. Barea ($6,000 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel) – 

Now that both Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams have been ruled out, Barea is a steal despite the price increase. Per NBAwowy, he’s notably averaged a 25.5 usage rate with Nowitzki and Williams off the court this season. In the lone game that Williams missed this season, Barea also recorded 37 DraftKings points. In other words, $6,000 is entirely too cheap. He’ll garner a lot of ownership tonight, but he’s certainly worth it.

Darren Collison ($6,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel) – 

Ty Lawson didn’t exactly win the job as Sacramento’s starting point guard over his last eight games, averaging 6.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 6.6 assists. Let’s be honest, we were all rostering him strictly for his guaranteed minutes. With Collison back tonight, Lawson should return to a much lesser role off the bench. Since he was out serving a suspension and not injured, Collison should have no limitations in his debut tonight.

Shooting Guard

Randy Foye ($3,000 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel) – Rostering Foye is basically the equivalent of betting on whomever you wrote-in while polling this morning. There’s a 0.1 percent chance (if that) that bet pays out, but if it does, you’ll be swimming. Foye was actually active for the Brooklyn Nets in their last game, but remained glued to the bench behind Isaiah Whitehead and Sean Kilpatrick (among others.) Head coach Kenny Atkinson has already stated that he’ll move Foye back to point guard in order to keep Kilpatrick firing on all cylinders off Brooklyn’s bench. Meanwhile, Atkinson didn’t state any restrictions for Foye. If he plays 18 minutes or less, he’ll likely fail to meet value. But Foye is the stone minimum on DraftKings and playing for a team already short their top-two point guards this evening (Jeremy Lin and Grievis Vasquez.) He certainly won’t need to do much in order to exceed expectations in large-entry GPPs. (But seriously: don’t bet on your write-in.)

Small Forward

Harrison Barnes ($6,700 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel) – 

The Mavericks struck gold by moving Barnes to power forward and DraftKings immediately accounted for it. FanDuel, however, is behind. In three games without Nowitzki this season, Barnes has averaged 41.9 minutes and 36.3 DraftKings points. He’s also led Dallas in field goal attempts (20) in those three contests. In other words, $5,700 in an incredible bargain given his increased usage rate at the four. $6,700 is admittedly quite high, but it’s certainly worth it in this matchup against a Los Angeles Lakers front court averaging the eighth-lowest rebounding percentage in the league.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel) –

Wiggins continues to be overlooked without Rubio available. While most DFSers prefer to continue rostering Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine (who have performed well in their own rights), Wiggins has quietly averaged a usage rate at least 3.6 percentage points higher than either over the last three games. LaVine has doubled the next closest teammate in three-point attempts (6.0) over that time, but Wiggins has averaged only 2.4 fewer DraftKings points in similar run (30.4:30.3). Given the latter’s propensity for steals, those 2.4 points should be made up in no time.

Power Forward

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,800 on DraftKings, $4,800 on FanDuel) – Not only does this matchup between the Portland Trailblazers and Phoenix Suns have the highest implied total (219) of the night, it also features two teams ranked top-10 in pace. And, despite averaging 30 minutes over his last five games, Aminu only costs $4,800 across the industry. Given that he’s an integral part of Portland’s rotation and has exceeded value in four of his last five games, it only makes sense to take advantage of his price discrepancy before it’s gone.

Dorian Finney-Smith ($3,000 on DraftKings, $3,500 on FanDuel) – Don’t worry. I’ve watched every possession of the Dallas Mavericks this season and even I couldn’t pick Finney-Smith out of a lineup. When a player gets a game-ball, though, simultaneously recording three steals while playing stellar defense, I pay attention. Given that Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams have already been ruled out tonight, Finney-Smith should once again log 30 minutes at small forward. His usage rate Sunday night (12.2 percent) was admittedly quite poor, but he’s a minimum option on DraftKings that should be heavily involved. If anything, Finney-Smith provides a reasonable floor for cheap.

Center

Andrew Bogut ($4,200 on DraftKings, $4,500 on FanDuel) – Without Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas’ last game, Bogut actually got to stay on the court for 34.3 minutes. He only took four shots, but you’re not rostering him for his offensive prowess. Thirty minutes is more than enough to see him finish with another 10-plus rebounds. And at $4,200 on DraftKings, he need only score around 18 DraftKings points in order to return value. Take the discount and allocate your salary elsewhere while others try to squeeze in higher priced options with the same floor.

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