Free agency has a major impact on fantasy football. We’re a long way from the 2017 league year, but for dynasty team owners — especially those who’ve missed the playoffs — it’s never too early to start thinking about how player values could change.
Over the next few weeks, I’ll run through each team’s free agency situation, using information from Over the Cap. I’ll use the Screener App as well as free agency status to identify potential team needs. I won’t speculate (too much) on destinations for certain players yet, but will offer some preliminary thoughts about possible value situations. As the offseason progresses, we’ll use the information in this series of articles to reach more specific conclusions about player movement and value changes.
|PLAYER||POS||TEAM||TYPE||16 SAL||16 GUAR||TEAM CAP|
|TEAM||PLAYER||POS||DEAD $||CAP SAVINGS|
Needs – RB, WR, TE
Oakland is top-10 in available cap space, and doesn’t have many glaring needs. Michael Crabtree is listed as a cut candidate only because his contract is so team favorable. However, he’s a lock to return at a reasonable $7 million per year, on the strength of another 1000+ yard season to go with nine TDs. After Crabtree and rookie-contract Amari Cooper, the depth chart empties out, so look for a modest move there. At tight end, Clive Walford sits alone atop the depth chart, but even so has little fantasy value. Running back Latavius Murray is the team’s most significant free agent.
A tight end acquisition would fuel speculation about the underwhelming Walford’s role. Not that you should be holding Walford in most common dynasty formats anyway. Seth Roberts is mildly interesting but it’s not necessary to hold him except maybe in very deep leagues that start many WRs.
The real interest here revolves around Latavius Murray. Here’s a look at RB performance for all RBs with more than 10 expected points per game and non-negative total efficiency.1
|PLAYER||Total EP/G||Total Opp/G||FPOE/G||FPOE/Opp|
In games he’s played this year, Murray is handling 78 percent of his team’s rushing attempts. That’s second only to Melvin Gordon’s 82 percent. In other words, he’s a productive, dual threat, workhorse RB. If there’s an owner who values him as anything less, I’d pounce. Murray may not be in the Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson/Ezekiel Elliott tier, but he’s not that far behind, and Murray is far cheaper. Consider this short list of potentially RB-needy teams, and imagine the value spike if Murray ends up there: New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Denver, Detroit, and Minnesota.
DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard should be held in case Murray departs. In that case, their value will rise for a time. But should Murray return, I wouldn’t pay much to acquire them.
- That is, their combined rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation are positive. (back)