revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Fantasy Football Free Agency Preview: Oakland Raiders

Free agency has a major impact on fantasy football. We’re a long way from the 2017 league year, but for dynasty team owners — especially those who’ve missed the playoffs — it’s never too early to start thinking about how player values could change.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll run through each team’s free agency situation, using information from Over the Cap. I’ll use the Screener App as well as free agency status to identify potential team needs. I won’t speculate (too much) on destinations for certain players yet, but will offer some preliminary thoughts about possible value situations. As the offseason progresses, we’ll use the information in this series of articles to reach more specific conclusions about player movement and value changes.

Oakland Raiders

Free Agents

PLAYER POS TEAM TYPE 16 SAL 16 GUAR TEAM CAP
Matthew McGloin QB Raiders UFA $2,553,000 $0 $42,365,487
Latavius Murray RB Raiders UFA $566,550 $106,200 $42,365,487
Mychal Rivera TE Raiders UFA $566,213 $104,852 $42,365,487
Gabe Holmes TE Raiders ERFA $525,000 $0 $42,365,487
Andre Holmes WR Raiders UFA $2,000,000 $750,000 $42,365,487
Seth Roberts WR Raiders ERFA $525,000 $0 $42,365,487

Cut Candidates

TEAM PLAYER POS DEAD $ CAP SAVINGS
RAIDERS M.CRABTREE WR 0 7
RAIDERS L.SMITH TE 0 3

Needs – RB, WR, TE

Oakland is top-10 in available cap space, and doesn’t have many glaring needs. Michael Crabtree is listed as a cut candidate only because his contract is so team favorable. However, he’s a lock to return at a reasonable $7 million per year, on the strength of another 1000+ yard season to go with nine TDs. After Crabtree and rookie-contract Amari Cooper, the depth chart empties out, so look for a modest move there. At tight end, Clive Walford sits alone atop the depth chart, but even so has little fantasy value. Running back Latavius Murray is the team’s most significant free agent.

Discussion

A tight end acquisition would fuel speculation about the underwhelming Walford’s role. Not that you should be holding Walford in most common dynasty formats anyway. Seth Roberts is mildly interesting but it’s not necessary to hold him except maybe in very deep leagues that start many WRs.

The real interest here revolves around Latavius Murray. Here’s a look at RB performance for all RBs with more than 10 expected points per game and non-negative total efficiency.1

PLAYER Total EP/G Total Opp/G FPOE/G FPOE/Opp
Tevin Coleman 10.1 11.6 5.1 0.44
Ezekiel Elliott 16.3 24.6 6.1 0.25
LeSean McCoy 14.4 19.1 4.4 0.23
Mark Ingram 11.8 15.7 3.5 0.22
Jay Ajayi 11.6 18.2 3.4 0.19
Latavius Murray 13.8 17 2.6 0.15
Spencer Ware 13.1 17.9 1.9 0.11
Danny Woodhead 12.3 13.5 1.3 0.10
DeMarco Murray 18.4 23.6 2.1 0.09
Jeremy Hill 10.3 15.1 1.3 0.09
David Johnson 23.8 26.7 2.2 0.08
Christine Michael 11 14.4 0.9 0.06
Isaiah Crowell 11.7 15.3 0.9 0.06
Theo Riddick 15.7 16.6 0.9 0.05
LeGarrette Blount 14.3 19.9 1 0.05
Carlos Hyde 14.2 19.8 0.7 0.04
Jordan Howard 13.6 18.5 0.5 0.03
Melvin Gordon 20.4 25.8 0.5 0.02
Le’Veon Bell 23.8 27.7 0.5 0.02
Frank Gore 14.4 19.5 0.1 0.01
Devonta Freeman 15.9 18.4 0 0
Giovani Bernard 12.4 14.2 0 0

In games he’s played this year, Murray is handling 78 percent of his team’s rushing attempts. That’s second only to Melvin Gordon’s 82 percent. In other words, he’s a productive, dual threat, workhorse RB. If there’s an owner who values him as anything less, I’d pounce. Murray may not be in the Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson/Ezekiel Elliott tier, but he’s not that far behind, and Murray is far cheaper. Consider this short list of potentially RB-needy teams, and imagine the value spike if Murray ends up there: New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Denver, Detroit, and Minnesota.

DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard should be held in case Murray departs. In that case, their value will rise for a time. But should Murray return, I wouldn’t pay much to acquire them.

  1. That is, their combined rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation are positive.  (back)

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Week 16 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 16 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 16 Primetime Slate DFS Week 16 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: All four QB options have some angle of appeal

Read More

NFL Week 16: Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

Monty Phan wraps up the weekend of NFL action. For nearly four months every year, my wife puts up with a husband who is totally useless on Sundays, a slave to the Red Zone Channel and NBC Sunday Night Football. Just when the season crescendos to a climax – the

Read More

Michael Thomas Sets Records As Surprise WRs Make Their Case to Dynasty Owners

Shawn Siegele looks at all the top wide receiver performances from Week 16, including big games from Sterling Shepard, Diontae Johnson, and Steven Sims Jr. Championship weekend featured a title-winning fourth-down score from Tyler Boyd and monster performances from two legends. Michael Thomas and Julio Jones combined for 22 catches

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.