revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

The RotoViz Scouting Index – RB and WR – Version 4

Version four of the RotoViz Scouting Index, which aggregates NFL draft prospect rankings from across the web. Check the first iteration for a full explanation; get the previous iteration here. Things are heating up in prospect-scouting land. This post examines movement at the running back and wide receiver positions.

By way of reminder, these aren’t RotoViz rankings. These are rankings from analysts or sites that use more traditional methods of prospect evaluation. We’re just aggregating those rankings and putting a score to them, so we can get a sense of how both real teams and fellow fantasy football GMs might value these players. I’m also splitting these posts up, to allow more room for commentary.

NFL Draft Prospect Rankings – RB and WR

Running Backs

RBAVE RKSCORENRSI RKRSI CHG
Leonard Fournette1.6137710
Dalvin Cook1.9135720
Christian McCaffrey3.3125730
D'Onta Foreman5.6109740
Alvin Kamara6.2103654
Wayne Gallman8.288660
Joe Mixon8.785670
Samaje Perine9.18478-3
Kareem Hunt10.080693
Jeremy McNichols10.875610-2
Curtis Samuel9.4695116
Brian Hill12.467512-1
Corey Clement12.467513-3
Marlon Mack13.462514#N/A
Jamaal Williams13.5596150
James Conner15.253516-3
Donnel Pumphrey15.452517-3
Elijah Hood14.346418#N/A
Matthew Dayes17.037419-3
Tarean Folston19.631520#N/A
Elijah McGuire20.029521#N/A
De’Veon Smith21.024522#N/A
Aaron Jones21.019423#N/A
Joe Williams21.517424#N/A
Devine Redding21.816425#N/A
Jahad Thomas22.515426-8

Lots of new faces make the RSI this week. It’ll be interesting to see who rises and falls after the combine, and if any new names emerge. The big riser this time around is Alvin Kamara. At 21.4 years of age, he’s neither very young or very old. Perhaps being mocked to the Packers by Todd McShay helped raise Kamara’s value in the RSI. After not appearing in the first two iterations of the RSI, he was ranked at four, and then six sites over the last two versions. His average rank also jumped from 7.5 to 6.2. Jordan Hoover profiled Kamara in October and wondered if he’d even crack the top 100 draft picks. Now there’s some first-round buzz.

Here are the current RB tiers based on current RSI score.

Capture

Kamara is now in the second tier, along with D’Onta Foreman. After that, things really flatten out.

One other thing to note is that Joe Mixon’s RSI rank hasn’t changed, despite not getting a combine invite. I guess that’s fair – the scouting sites that make up the RSI are evaluating talent, not trying to project draft slot. For fantasy footballers however, that’s an important note. Since roughly 90 percent of drafted RBs had a combine invite, the odds are against Mixon getting drafted. If he is drafted, it’ll probably be late in the draft. Either way, that works against any short-term fantasy value.

Additional Research

Wide Receivers

WRAVE RKSCORENRSI RKRSI CHG
Mike Williams1.6166710
Corey Davis2.6159720
John Ross3.4153730
JuJu Smith-Schuster6.0135740
Cooper Kupp6.6131750
Isaiah Ford8.7116761
Zay Jones8.811167#N/A
Dede Westbrook9.210968-2
ArDarius Stewart10.010359#N/A
Amara Darboh10.4101510-2
Malachi Dupre11.894511-2
Artavis Scott13.884512-1
Taywan Taylor14.0826131
Carlos Henderson12.075414#N/A
Stacy Coley15.871615-3
Chris Godwin16.670516#N/A
Chad Hansen16.869517#N/A
Travis Rudolph16.869518#N/A
Noah Brown16.368619-6
K.D. Cannon14.066520-10
Josh Reynolds17.261621-1
Jehu Chesson18.859522-7
Ryan Switzer18.255623-6
Kenny Golladay24.033524#N/A
Fred Ross22.531625-6
Travin Dural24.630526-10
Trent Taylor24.028427#N/A
Amba Etta-Tawo25.824528#N/A
Damoreea Stringfellow25.521429#N/A
Ricky Seals-Jones21.820430-12
Gabe Marks29.37431-10

The RSI top 10 now includes two newcomers: Zay Jones and ArDarius Stewart. Meanwhile, K.D. Cannon plummets from 10 to 20. It’s also worth noting some weakness in JuJu Smith-Schuster’s value. He’s been the No. 4 WR prospect in all four versions of the RSI. But his average rank at the sites underlying the RSI has dropped.

WR 3-Jan 17-Jan 26-Jan 11-Feb
Mike Williams 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6
Corey Davis 2.7 2.7 3.1 2.6
John Ross 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster 3.7 3.5 4.1 6.0

This sort of thing happens every year to one or more prospects. Nothing’s changed about Smith-Schuster since January 3. Is it that the scouting sites have spent more time on other prospects and those guys have moved up enough to pull Smith-Schuster down? Or is it that Smith-Schuster has been analyzed so much that the scouting sites are now nitpicking his game and finding reasons to lower his rank? Whatever his real or perceived faults, Smith-Schuster is the youngest WR prospect in this year’s draft class.

John Ross has seen a very small drop in average rank, but like Smith-Schuster, remains solidly in the top four.

WR Tiers based on RSI score.

Capture

You can see there’s actually a bit of a drop from Ross to Smith-Schuster, who’s essentially even with Cooper Kupp. After that the scores flatten out.

Additional Research

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Putting 2019 in Context: Is the Running Back Dead Zone Dead?

Last July, I wrote an article about the running back dead zone — basically, RBs picked in Rounds 3 through 6 have busted at incredible rates since 2015. That article — along with several others which had similar findings — fundamentally changed my strategy in best ball drafts. Oops.1 Leonard

Read More
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.