Consistency — and realizing that you aren’t going to hit every play, every night — is key for growing a bankroll. Let’s take a look at tonight’s most consistent daily fantasy basketball plays and win some money.
Kyrie Irving had a monster game against the Atlanta Hawks last night. He put up 60+ fantasy points and proved that DvP and usage reign supreme in NBA DFS. Unfortunately, Irving isn’t on the main slate this evening, but there are still a lot of plays to help us get in the money. With the addition of Lou Williams to the Houston Rockets, they have been extremely hard to figure out. With the Rockets slated to play against the Memphis Grizzlies this is a game I will being fading.
There are five games today on the main slate. This time of the year is a DFS player’s dream. I cannot stress enough the importance of checking injuries and lineups pre-lock. DraftKings has moved to a similar no swap format like FanDuel, which causes a lot of headaches.
Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
Kemba Walker CHA @ DEN – $8,500 ON FD, $8,500 ON DK
Walker is a better player at home, this is an undisputed fact. However, he also has been known to thrive in positive match ups. He gets a Nuggets team that has struggled against PGs all season. With a plethora of injuries facing the Hornets, Walker and Nicolas Batum are usually tasked with most of the scoring. This game boasts a 221 o/u and should play at an uptempo pace. Walker has a true usage rate of 28 percent and is projected to score 40+ FPs. I will have a lot of exposure to Walker in my cash games and he will be the player I start building my GPP lineups around.
Ricky Rubio MIN @ SAS – $6,900 ON FD, $6,100 ON DK
Rubio has benefited from Zach Lavine’s season ending injury. Usually I like to stay away from teams playing the Spurs, but PGs have had a lot of success against the Spurs this season. This game also has a spread under double digits, which makes it even more attractive. Rubio has seen his true usage rate bump up three percent to 18 percent, however, he produces fantasy points by other stats. I love his match up against Tony Parker and wouldn’t be surprised to see him produce 6x value.
C.J. McCollum POR VS BKN – $7,600 ON FD, $7,500 ON DK (SG/PG)
Let me give you a quick 2016-2017 NBA DFS lesson. If a team is playing Brooklyn, target them. I am not opposed to stacking McCollum and his partner Damian Lillard in GPPs. McCollum has become the second option for the Trailblazers and has seen his usage rise all season long. He has a true usage rate of 27 percent and is seeing 30+ minutes per game. I have him projected at 40+ fantasy points and wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 90 total from the McCollum/Lillard combo.
Nicolas Batum CHA @ DEN – $6,800 ON FD, $7,300 ON DK (SG/SF)
Very similar to the first SG listed, I am not opposed to stacking Batum and his counter part Kemba Walker. Same team, high usage player stacking has been a very profitable concept for me this season. Batum has the ability to do a little bit of everything and can feel up every statistical category. He will get a great match up tonight against a Nuggets team that struggles against guards. Batum is averaging 33 fantasy points a game, 35+ minutes, and a true usage rate of 24 percent. He has the upside to put up 50, but should easily his 5x value and make for a great cash game play.
Kawhi Leonard SAS VS MIN – $9,000 ON FD, $8,800 ON DK
Leonard is the highest priced SF on the main slate, but he has the ability to easily reach value. Leonard does everything on the court and can score a lot of defensive points. He has also taken over the Spurs and has a true usage rate of 31 percent. Leonard averages 40 fantasy points per game and with the uptempo play of the Timberwolves it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up closer to 50 fantasy points. I will have close to 30 percent exposure to Leonard in GPPs as he may go under owned due to price.
Moe Harkless POR VS BKN – $4,800 ON FD, $5,200 ON DK
Harkless has seen an uptick in playing time with Evan Turner going down to injury. Harkless doesn’t produce a lot of scoring, but he does fill up other categories. He is seeing 30 minutes a game and gets a great match up against the Nets. I think he will produce closer to 30 fantasy points, which will exceed his season average by nine fantasy points. He will be a popular value play, but should easily hit value.
LaMarcus Aldridge SAS VS MIN $6,900 ON FD, $6,000 ON DK
The Spurs will lean heavily on Aldridge against Karl Anthony-Towns this evening. Playing him has been a crap-shoot most of the season, but he is good for 30+ fantasy points per night. He has a true usage rate of 23 percent and will see over 32 minutes. I have him projected at 35 fantasy points and with a limited selection of PFs to choose from he may be one of the chalkier plays on this slate.
Zach Randolph MEM @ HOU – $6,100 ON FD, $5,900 ON DK
Randolph has seen his price rise with some recent inspired play. He is coming off of the bench, but is still playing 30+ minutes a game. With the amount of shots the Rockets take there should be a lot of rebounds for Randolph to have. I know that I said I would be fading this game, but the big men should still be fine. We should see 6x value from Randolph and wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up 30+ fantasy points. Don’t be deterred by his bench role, because he still has a 28 percent true usage rate.
Jusuf Nurkic POR VS BKN – $6,400 ON FD, $6,700 ON DK
Nurkic had a monster 55 point outing during his last game. He gets a better match up against the Nets on this slate. I doubt he will replicate his 55 point game, but I think he can get 40+ fantasy points. He has fit in well with the Trailblazers plan and rebounds with the best Cs in the league. He will obviously be very popular, but he is one of the chalky players that can help you take down a GPP this evening. He boasts a true usage rate of 22 percent and should see 25+ minutes tonight.
Karl Anthony-Towns MIN @ SAS – $10,400 ON FD, $9,400 ON DK
This is uber contrarian, but that’s how you win a GPP. Towns will face the Spurs tonight and this would usually turn people off. However, if the Timberwolves want a chance he will have to turn in a big outing. He isn’t as good away from home, but he does seem to play up to his competition. He has a 27 percent true usage rate and is averaging 44 fantasy points per game. I will sprinkle in some GPP exposure due to how low owned I think he will be this evening.
Good luck with your daily fantasy basketball lineups this weekend! If you have any questions before tip-off please feel free to hit Tobes up on twitter @Tobinator44