With all of the attention on the top RBs in the 2017 NFL draft class, Brian Hill appears ready to be a late round star.
Production
Hill amassed over 4,200 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 30 touchdowns during his three-year career at Wyoming. And during his final season, he totaled 1,860 yards rushing and 22 touchdowns. That level of single year production places Hill in an elite class. Using the Sports Reference player game finder, I searched for players who rushed for at least 1,800 yards and 22 TDs in one season since 2000 and got the following results:
| Rk | Player | Year | School | G | Rushing Att | Rushing Yds | Rushing Avg | Rushing TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melvin Gordon | 2014 | Wisconsin | 14 | 343 | 2587 | 7.5 | 29 |
| 2 | Kevin Smith | 2007 | Central Florida | 14 | 450 | 2567 | 5.7 | 29 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | 2015 | Alabama | 15 | 395 | 2219 | 5.6 | 28 |
| 4 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 2000 | Texas Christian | 11 | 369 | 2158 | 5.8 | 22 |
| 5 | Matt Forte | 2007 | Tulane | 12 | 361 | 2127 | 5.9 | 23 |
| 6 | Ray Rice | 2007 | Rutgers | 13 | 380 | 2012 | 5.3 | 24 |
| 7 | Leonard Fournette | 2015 | Louisiana State | 12 | 300 | 1953 | 6.5 | 22 |
| 8 | DeAngelo Williams | 2004 | Memphis | 12 | 313 | 1948 | 6.2 | 22 |
| 9 | Ka'Deem Carey | 2012 | Arizona | 13 | 303 | 1929 | 6.4 | 23 |
| 10 | Montee Ball | 2011 | Wisconsin | 14 | 307 | 1923 | 6.3 | 33 |
| 11 | Jordan Lynch | 2013 | Northern Illinois | 14 | 292 | 1920 | 6.6 | 23 |
| 12 | Damien Anderson | 2000 | Northwestern | 11 | 293 | 1914 | 6.5 | 22 |
| 13 | Stefphon Jefferson | 2012 | Nevada | 13 | 375 | 1883 | 5.0 | 24 |
| 14 | Toby Gerhart | 2009 | Stanford | 13 | 343 | 1871 | 5.5 | 28 |
| 15 | Brian Hill | 2016 | Wyoming | 14 | 349 | 1860 | 5.3 | 22 |
| 16 | Montee Ball | 2012 | Wisconsin | 14 | 356 | 1830 | 5.1 | 22 |
| 17 | Jay Ajayi | 2014 | Boise State | 14 | 347 | 1823 | 5.3 | 28 |
| 18 | Ezekiel Elliott | 2015 | Ohio State | 13 | 289 | 1821 | 6.3 | 23 |
| 19 | Tre Mason | 2013 | Auburn | 14 | 317 | 1816 | 5.7 | 23 |
While there are ineffective NFL players, the list also includes some intriguing names. Finding a middle- or late-round player with similar production to Melvin Gordon, LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, or Ray Rice could completely change the outlook of a dynasty team. The beauty of a player like Hill is that the associated risk is minimized by his low ADP.
Prospect Comparisons
While Hill doesn’t place among the desirable nodes of Kevin Cole’s RB Regression Tree, he scores well in the RB Prospect Lab. After inputting Hill’s information, the app gave him a scaled prospect score of 66. It also provides a list of players who have scored in the same range.
| NAME | TM | AGE | YEAR | WT | FORTY | CONE | ATTS | YPG | TDS | RECS | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DESHAUN FOSTER | UCLA | 21.83 | 2002 | 222 | 4.57 | 6.82 | 27 | 138.62 | 1.5 | 1.12 | 68 |
| RUDI JOHNSON | Auburn | 21.19 | 2001 | 227 | 4.57 | 7.32 | 27 | 130.58 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 68 |
| ROBERT TURBIN | Utah State | 22.05 | 2012 | 222 | 4.42 | 7.16 | 19.15 | 116.69 | 1.46 | 1.31 | 67 |
| MONTEE BALL | Wisconsin | 22.09 | 2013 | 214 | 4.46 | 6.88 | 25.43 | 130.71 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 67 |
| JAVON RINGER | Michigan State | 21.93 | 2009 | 205 | 4.55 | 6.87 | 30 | 125.92 | 1.69 | 2.15 | 66 |
| MARSHAWN LYNCH | California | 20.7 | 2007 | 215 | 4.46 | 7.09 | 17.15 | 104.31 | 0.85 | 2.62 | 66 |
| BRIAN HILL | Wyoming | 21.2 | 2017 | 219 | 4.54 | 7.03 | 24.9 | 132.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 66 |
| KNOWSHON MORENO | Georgia | 21.48 | 2009 | 217 | 4.5 | 6.84 | 19.23 | 107.69 | 1.23 | 2.54 | 65 |
| MAURICE DREW | UCLA | 20.79 | 2006 | 207 | 4.39 | 7.08 | 15.5 | 76.17 | 1.08 | 2.58 | 65 |
| JAMAAL CHARLES | Texas | 21.01 | 2008 | 200 | 4.38 | 6.8 | 19.85 | 124.54 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 65 |
| GIOVANI BERNARD | North Carolina | 21.02 | 2013 | 202 | 4.5 | 6.91 | 18.4 | 122.8 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 64 |
| KNILE DAVIS | Arkansas | 21.15 | 2013 | 227 | 4.35 | 6.96 | 11.2 | 37.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 64 |
| TYLER GAFFNEY | Stanford | 22.72 | 2014 | 220 | 4.49 | 6.78 | 23.57 | 122.07 | 1.5 | 1.07 | 63 |
The most encouraging names are Marshawn Lynch, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Jamaal Charles. While these superstars create unrealistic expectations, names like Rudi Johnson, Knowshon Moreno, and Giovani Bernard point toward other possible outcomes that would still result in several seasons worth of top-24 RB production.
We can find players with Hill’s specific blend of attributes using the Box Score Scout.
Conclusion
For dynasty owners, Hill’s current draft projection is worth noticing. The Wyoming star ranks No. 16 among RBs in the most recent RotoViz Scouting Index, making him a likely third- or fourth-round rookie draft selection. At that price, fantasy players will be hard pressed to find a prospect with a higher ceiling than Brian Hill.
