NBA DFS Value Plays – March 27th, 2017

Tonight’s slate is one of the ugliest ones in recent memory. Making a lineup is extremely difficult so it may be smart to bet light. Let’s go position-by-position to identify the top values of the day for DraftKings.

Point Guard

Cory Joseph ($4,800)

Cory Joseph is the only value PG I’ll be writing up today and that speaks to the lack of quality players on this slate. He has a fairly difficult matchup against the Mavs who have defended the PG position very well all year long. Joseph is a near lock for 30-plus minutes in this matchup and he should be able to hit 5x value.

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Shooting Guard

Shabazz Muhammad ($4,800)

I was one of the lucky ones who selected Shabazz Muhammad last night who went off for a whopping zero fantasy points. He has another favorable matchup and even though he was a lineup killer last night, he’s in a great spot to bounce back tonight versus the Blazers. Before his zero-point dud, Muhammad was averaging 27 minutes per game and 25 fantasy points per game in that four-game span. He’s not the best play at $4,800 but the values are hard to find today.

Courtney Lee ($4,400)

Look, another scoring dependent player. It’s never fun or enjoyable when you roster Courtney Lee, but he’s looking at a monster workload once again. He played 40 minutes in the Knicks’ last game against the Blazers and should see minutes in the 35-38 range tonight. If Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony both miss this game, Lee is arguably the top value SG of the night.

Small Forward

Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,500)

This will likely be the chalk play of the night. That’s only if Carmelo sits, though. Mindaugas Kuzminskas played 31 minutes against the Blazers and scored 29 fantasy points. Obviously, the matchup against the Spurs is unfavorable but Kuzminskas should see minutes in the mid 20’s at the very least. It’s unlikely this game remains close for too long and Kuz is almost a lock to see value if Melo is out. Lance Thomas has already been ruled out, as well.

Richard Jefferson ($3,200)

LeBron James is in serious jeopardy of missing tonight’s game due to a scratched cornea. It’s also the second half of a back-to-back set. Richard Jefferson isn’t the greatest per-minute fantasy producer, but he’s just $3,200 and should see minutes in the 25-30 range if James sits. Jefferson may only score 15-20 fantasy points, but picking him allows you to draft guys like John Wall and Damian Lillard.

Power Forward

Gorgui Dieng ($5,400)

Gorgui Dieng has been extremely inconsistent this season and he’ll be a headache for DFS players until the season ends. He has a favorable matchup against the Blazers, but at $5,400 it’s fair to wonder if he can pay off his salary. Dieng is a better tournament option than he is a cash play, but if you’re really stuck at the PF position, he’s a good bet for 25-30 fantasy points.

Noah Vonleh ($4,100)

While Dieng is a bit overpriced, Noah Vonleh‘s price has finally caught up with him. He’s scored over 20 fantasy points in five straight games and he also played 32 minutes in the Blazers last game. Vonleh has been terrible all season long but it finally appears that he’s found his role. Vonleh is safer than Dieng in cash due to the price difference.

Center

Nerlens Noel ($5,000)

To make things simple, Nerlens Noel is only in play if he starts. With that being said, if he starts, he’s almost a lock due to his 1.08 FP/min. His minutes have fluctuated quite a bit in his short time with the Mavs making him a very volatile option. If Noel comes off the bench tonight, it may be smart to spend up at center and use Jusuf Nurkic or Karl-Anthony Towns.

Tristan Thompson ($4,400)

Tristan Thompson actually plays worse when LeBron sits, so don’t rush to TT if the injury news breaks. For what it’s worth, Thompson is averaging 30 fantasy points against the Wizards through two contests this year. He’s just $4,400 and a 30-pointer from him could be the deciding factor between you winning big bucks and barely doubling your money. He hasn’t notched a double-double in seven games so he’s long overdue. He’s more of a tournament play.

Good luck!

Brett Squires

Avid DFS player for both NFL and NBA. College student looking to become a teacher. Love helping others, feel free to DM me on Twitter with any questions!
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