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Early GLSP Projections – Watson and Taylor Surprise

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

Through three weeks, the “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of five and a half points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections, or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My QB GLSP has recorded an average absolute difference of six points through three Weeks. The RB GLSP was off by an average absolute difference of five points, the WR GLSP by under six, and the TE GLSP by under five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.1

A Couple of Reminders

GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have running backs similar to Jordan Howard fared against defenses similar to the Packers? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer using a range of outcomes.

I pulled Week 3 data during Monday night’s game, so those results did not get included when running the model for Week 4. Remember, the results for rookies and players that missed 2016 are based on Weeks 1 through 3 only. However, there’s now enough data for 2017 matchups to contribute to the comparable searches performed by the GLSPs.2

Finally, I haven’t stripped out players that are expected to be inactive or limited due to injury in Week 4.

Quarterback

The QB GLSP places Aaron Rodgers with the week’s highest projection and strongest range of outcomes. Tom Brady looks like the week’s second-best option, and Deshaun Watson and Tyrod Taylor project with surprisingly similar ranges of outcomes.

Conversely, Derek Carr has a low floor to go with weak median and high projections. Matthew Stafford could struggle against the Vikings, and the GLSP places Cam Newton with a floor of only five points.

Trevor Siemian once again looks like a streaming option, and Andy Dalton should continue to improve upon his slow start when facing the Browns. 

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGWK RK
Deshaun WatsonHOUTEN1521272210
Aaron RodgersGBCHI1522282110
Tyrod TaylorBUFATL1421272011
Tom BradyNECAR1420272012
Dak PrescottDALLAR1419231911
Drew BreesNOMIA1319221914
Russell WilsonSEAIND1216261914
Ben RoethlisbergerPITBAL1418221912
Blake BortlesJAXNYJ1519221812
Andy DaltonCINCLE1417221813
Eli ManningNYGTB1316201815
Deshone KizerCLECIN1417201813
Carson PalmerARISF1418201813
Trevor SiemianDENOAK1218201715
Case KeenumMINDET1415211714
Marcus MariotaTENHOU1116221713
Kirk CousinsWASKC1117201615
Matt RyanATLBUF1216191616
Brian HoyerSFARI1115191616
Matthew StaffordDETMIN1016171517
Philip RiversLACPHI1014181517
Jay CutlerMIANO1013181419
Alex SmithKCWAS1013181420
Carson WentzPHILAC814181319
Joe FlaccoBALPIT1013151319
Jameis WinstonTBNYG1011161221
Cam NewtonCARNE512181220
Derek CarrOAKDEN711131221
Jared GoffLARDAL710161121
Josh McCownNYJJAX610131022
Jacoby BrissettINDSEA4611727
Mike GlennonCHIGB0511628

Running Back

LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon are among the week’s top running back options, and surprisingly, Bilal Powell isn’t too far behind with a high-end projection of 20 points.

Jay Ajayi struggled in Week 3 and could be in for another rough day against the Saints. While he does project with a ceiling of 19 points, he comes equipped with a floor of only three and median projection of just nine. DeMarco Murray also has a wide range of outcomes and looks like a boom or bust play versus the Texans.

Frank Gore projects as a safe play against the Seahawks, and Mark Ingram has a solid range of outcomes versus the Dolphins.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
LeSean McCoyBUFATL1120252016
Le'Veon BellPITBAL1618221913
Melvin GordonLACPHI1221231914
Devonta FreemanATLBUF1316231815
Ezekiel ElliottDALLAR1117211624
Kareem HuntKCWAS813191522
Carlos HydeSFARI1014181521
Dalvin CookMINDET1114191520
Mark IngramNOMIA912181524
Tevin ColemanATLBUF812211525
Todd GurleyLARDAL913201425
Leonard FournetteJAXNYJ1012181423
Jordan HowardCHIGB813221423
Frank GoreINDSEA1013151424
Bilal PowellNYJJAX613191426
Jay AjayiMIANO39191232
CJ AndersonDENOAK611171229
Isaiah CrowellCLECIN812151228
Jacquizz RodgersTBNYG811171226
DeMarco MurrayTENHOU58191233
Giovani BernardCINCLE612161230
Terrance WestBALPIT79171232
Lamar MillerHOUTEN710141129
Jonathan StewartCARNE69171128
Darren SprolesPHILAC612161128
Javorius AllenBALPIT710131030
Theo RiddickDETMIN69131035
Matt ForteNYJJAX610131034
Ty MontgomeryGBCHI3913939
Tarik CohenCHIGB6814931
Mike GillisleeNECAR2513943
Charles SimsTBNYG4913938
LeGarrette BlountPHILAC4914935
Jerick McKinnonMINDET6911937
CJ ProsiseSEAIND4613942
Ameer AbdullahDETMIN3611839
Duke JohnsonCLECIN4613844
James WhiteNECAR3611842
Joe MixonCINCLE5712829
Chris ThompsonWASKC2811742
Chris CarsonSEAIND4610739
Shane VereenNYGTB248749
Chris IvoryJAXNYJ469743
D'Onta ForemanHOUTEN3610740
Derrick HenryTENHOU349643
Jalen RichardOAKDEN356646
Dion LewisNECAR358644
Thomas RawlsSEAIND359647
Christian McCaffreyCARNE147550
Paul PerkinsNYGTB358550
Robert TurbinINDSEA347551
Jamaal CharlesDENOAK247556
Deandre WashingtonOAKDEN147558
Matt BreidaSFARI248550
Charcandrick WestKCWAS235559
Branden OliverLACPHI237548
Damien WilliamsMIANO137557
Marshawn LynchOAKDEN136458
Wendell SmallwoodPHILAC027464
Zach ZennerDETMIN137458
Alvin KamaraNOMIA025365
Samaje PerineWASKC125369
Adrian PetersonNOMIA134361
Orleans DarkwaNYGTB006371
Peyton BarberTBNYG013372
Chris JohnsonARISF112247
Mike TolbertBUFATL013274
Jeremy HillCINCLE023261
Kenyan DrakeMIANO012280
Alfred MorrisDALLAR013274
Andre EllingtonARISF012180
Kerwynn WilliamsARISF001184
Kyle JuszczykSFARI003180
Elijah McGuireNYJJAX011170
Latavius MurrayMINDET011165
Jamaal WilliamsGBCHI001082
Tyler ErvinHOUTEN000098

Wide Receiver

The WR GLSP expects A.J. Green to carry forward his momentum from the weekend, projecting him with the highest floor of all wide receivers.  Pierre Garcon and Brandon Marshall have wide ranges of outcomes but could score big if things break in their favor.

Emmanuel Sanders and Michael Crabtree will be facing each other on Sunday with lower projections than one might expect. Demaryius Thomas could also be in for a weaker performance, projecting with a floor of just six points and ceiling of 14.

The GLSP has liked Rishard Matthews every week and once again expects a strong performance. Eric Decker, on the other hand, is starting to get penalized for his weaker performances as a Titan and projects with a high-end outcome of only nine points.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
AJ GreenCINCLE1823272315
Antonio BrownPITBAL1622282215
Michael ThomasNOMIA1319272021
Jordy NelsonGBCHI1319261923
Odell Beckham JrNYGTB1221261924
Doug BaldwinSEAIND1218221822
Dez BryantDALLAR1120241827
Julio JonesATLBUF1216201724
Stefon DiggsMINDET1115221729
Mike EvansTBNYG1115181629
Jarvis LandryMIANO1011231633
Larry FitzgeraldARISF915211633
Terrelle PryorWASKC1014241632
Rishard MatthewsTENHOU1015191527
Amari CooperOAKDEN913181439
Golden TateDETMIN612201437
Brandin CooksNECAR713181441
Davante AdamsGBCHI813181434
Adam ThielenMINDET912171435
DeAndre HopkinsHOUTEN615191338
TY HiltonINDSEA710181343
Pierre GarconSFARI513211342
Sammy WatkinsLARDAL812191339
Jamison CrowderWASKC812161340
Chris HoganNECAR713171340
Sterling ShepardNYGTB911161335
Brandon LaFellCINCLE512181341
Brandon MarshallNYGTB710201340
Michael CrabtreeOAKDEN610151239
Emmanuel SandersDENOAK712161241
Devante ParkerMIANO810141245
Ted GinnNOMIA612181243
Cole BeasleyDALLAR611181243
DeSean JacksonTBNYG713161242
Marvin JonesDETMIN611151244
Donte MoncriefINDSEA612171245
Jordan MatthewsBUFATL610191241
Terrance WilliamsDALLAR511171245
Kenny BrittCLECIN713161240
Travis BenjaminLACPHI59171246
Keenan AllenLACPHI79151140
Tyreek HillKCWAS711161145
JJ NelsonARISF412151146
Eli RogersPITBAL812151144
Demaryius ThomasDENOAK610141047
Alshon JefferyPHILAC59141049
Kelvin BenjaminCARNE58101055
Marqise LeeJAXNYJ610141049
Robby AndersonNYJJAX69151047
Robert WoodsLARDAL58131052
Martavis BryantPITBAL5810957
Allen HurnsJAXNYJ6811954
Tavon AustinLARDAL6812953
Bruce EllingtonHOUTEN4811953
Mohamed SanuATLBUF4611862
Tyrell WilliamsLACPHI4812860
Rashard HigginsCLECIN579854
Kendall WrightCHIGB4811863
Mike WallaceBALPIT5710858
Kenny StillsMIANO3813859
Taylor GabrielATLBUF3614863
Geronimo AllisonGBCHI4711861
Adam HumphriesTBNYG479858
Tyler BoydCINCLE4610854
Jeremy MaclinBALPIT4610766
Eric DeckerTENHOU479769
Tyler LockettSEAIND359772
Devin FunchessCARNE0413773
Brandon ColemanNOMIA3611767
Torrey SmithPHILAC3610769
Breshad PerrimanBALPIT378767
Deonte ThompsonCHIGB2513772
Braxton MillerHOUTEN2611766
Cooper KuppLARDAL267673
Nelson AgholorPHILAC368674
Marquise GoodwinSFARI249672
Danny AmendolaNECAR0311678
Jeremy KerleyNYJJAX346663
Russell ShepardCARNE2411671
Juju Smith-SchusterPITBAL368665
Kamar AikenINDSEA259671
Phillip DorsettNECAR248676
Brice ButlerDALLAR128678
Chris GodwinTBNYG469665
TJ JonesDETMIN458668
Kenny GolladayDETMIN257574
Chris ConleyKCWAS257574
Markus WheatonCHIGB028581
Albert WilsonKCWAS239578
Taywan TaylorTENHOU247581
Jarius WrightMINDET029586
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKDEN057581
Jermaine KearseNYJJAX246478
Jaron BrownARISF025482
Seth RobertsOAKDEN245480
Ricardo LouisCLECIN036478
Bennie FowlerDENOAK009497
Andre HolmesBUFATL027494
Josh BellamyCHIGB147480
Josh DoctsonWASKC007495
Justin HardyATLBUF024496
Paul RichardsonSEAIND025397
Zay JonesBUFATL024295
Ryan GrantWASKC0232101
Curtis SamuelCARNE0232107
Keelan ColeJAXNYJ024296
Tommylee LewisNOMIA024298
Dontrelle InmanLACPHI0011108
Laquon TreadwellMINDET0000126
Alex EricksonCINCLE0010119

Tight End

Jared Cook opposes the Broncos but has the third highest average projection of all tight ends. Cameron Brate is also expected to have a great week and could surprise against the Giants.

Coby Fleener owns the week’s fifth-highest ceiling in his matchup against the Dolphins, and Ryan Griffin merits streamer consideration with C.J. Fiedorowicz on IR.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Rob GronkowskiNECAR1017181610
Travis KelceKCWAS1115181510
Jared CookOAKDEN812151215
Cameron BrateTBNYG710161216
Zach ErtzPHILAC69121116
Kyle RudolphMINDET811131115
Delanie WalkerTENHOU79161115
Zach MillerCHIGB711131118
Charles ClayBUFATL710131018
Jason WittenDALLAR7912920
Coby FleenerNOMIA6914922
Ryan GriffinHOUTEN6811922
Eric EbronDETMIN6710824
Jesse JamesPITBAL2811825
Vernon DavisWASKC3710723
Julius ThomasMIANO3612724
Antonio GatesLACPHI4810725
David NjokuCLECIN359727
Martellus BennettGBCHI359627
Jimmy GrahamSEAIND2410631
Jack DoyleINDSEA2510629
Evan EngramNYGTB3510622
Benjamin WatsonBALPIT347634
Marcedes LewisJAXNYJ347628
Josh HillNOMIA258633
Hunter HenryLACPHI249535
Jermaine GreshamARISF358530
CJ UzomahCINCLE157533
Will TyeNYJJAX247534
Luke WillsonSEAIND129538
Seth DeValveCLECIN026441
Virgil GreenDENOAK145437
Dion SimsCHIGB246436
Richard RodgersGBCHI226439
Trey BurtonPHILAC036436
Austin HooperATLBUF023347
Gerald EverettLARDAL014351
AJ DerbyDENOAK023343
George KittleSFARI023245
OJ HowardTBNYG024249
Tyler HigbeeLARDAL013249
Tyler KroftCINCLE013248
Nick BoyleBALPIT023250
Jeff HeuermanDENOAK023251
Demetrius HarrisKCWAS013252
Stephen AndersonHOUTEN002156

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird, but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Remember, we’re still working with only three weeks of data, so the projections will be less meaningful for rookies and players with recent changes in their situation.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

  1. Not to mention, performances such as Joe Flacco’s negative three points in Week 3 are very hard to forecast but hurt the averages.  (back)
  2. The model is compiling player averages from games since Week 4 of 2016. In a small number of instances, I modified the ranges searched.   (back)
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