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WR Targets: Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins Lead The Way

WR Targets takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), and weighted opportunity rating (WOPR).

Did you know that 14 wide receivers saw double-digit targets in Week 10? Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins tied for the most with 14. Both WRs have played 95 percent or more of the offensive snaps, are currently in the top five in PPR formats, and have posted positive receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), which suggests they are outperforming their volume. Fitzgerald and Hopkins are talented enough to rise above poor quarterback play.

Week 11 Targets Fitz Hopkins

WR Targets

We’ll pick up the analysis from last week as you prepare to attack the waiver wire for Week 11. This week, we will continue to leverage numerous resources, including Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards.1

WR TIER 1

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI141011318416013.10.610.340.30.698010021.3
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU14711116122011.50.690.460.390.91699918.1
Adam ThielenWRMIN13816613279110.21.260.570.431.05559030.6
Sterling ShepardWRNYG131114215540011.90.920.470.350.866610025.2

Adam Thielen is currently the WR3 in PPR formats. The only other WRs with more fantasy points are Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins.

 

Hopkins Brown Thielen

Thielen has accumulated this statistical production on only 87 targets. Out of the top-eight fantasy wide receivers, he is tied with Fitzgerald for the highest Receiving Air Conversion Ratio (RACR), which helps explain his solid reFPOE despite low TD numbers. Thielen has caught five or more passes in every game. The return of Stefon Diggs only strengthens his value, as he should continue to run a high number routes from the slot and see a healthy number of targets.

Week 11 Targets Thielen GLSP

The Vikings host the Rams this week, and Thielen can be viewed as a low-end WR1. He has averaged 10.2 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 90.2 receiving yards per game at home this season. The high end of his RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projection is especially enticing.

WR TIER 2

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
Emmanuel SandersWRDEN11613713458012.21.020.490.330.85558719.7
Marqise LeeWRJAC1165515624114.20.350.320.220.55718517.5
Brandin CooksWRNE1167414037012.70.530.450.30.76689713.4
Jamison CrowderWRWAS11476933908.50.820.260.240.55608012.1

Marqise Lee has accumulated the ninth-most targets (39) since Week 6 and is tied with Antonio Brown for the most air yards (522). He has emerged as the Jaguars No. 1 WR and has played 77 percent of the offensive snaps this season.

Week 11 Targets Lee ScreenerLee has not been as effective with his target volume as depicted by his negative reFPOE (-13.4). He’s still seeing enough volume to be a reliable WR3 and has an excellent matchup against the Browns with a good chance to meet or exceed our projection.

Week 11 Targets Lee GLSPThe Jaguars schedule for the rest of the season bodes well for quarterback Blake Bortles. Lee will be in a prime position to take advantage of these matchups.

Week 11 Buy Low Bortles-Lee

WR TIER 3

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
Robert WoodsWRLA10817111790211.71.460.440.260.7527937.1
Brandon LaFellWRCIN10695874518.71.090.260.290.61489421.5
Michael ThomasWRNO109117744707.41.580.640.41.05567320.7
Jarvis LandryWRMIA10542751317.50.560.230.270.57529315.2
DeSean JacksonWRTB1068215920015.90.520.450.290.76547614.2
Chris GodwinWRTB1056815216015.20.450.430.290.74699711.8
Corey DavisWRTEN10448120200120.40.30.230.5578878.8

Better statistical days are ahead for Corey Davis. He led the Titans in targets and air yards, but only had a catch rate of 40 percent. Davis did play 87 percent of the offensive snaps and nearly scored a touchdown, but lost the football while diving into the end zone. Davis has a difficult matchup against the Steelers secondary this week. The forecast looks less cloudy for the Titans WRs from Week 12 to 16.

week 11 targets Davis buy low machine

 

WR TIER 4

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
Allen HurnsWRJAC97705431061.30.110.180.34607114
DeVante ParkerWRMIA966612019013.30.550.370.240.62508912.6
Davante AdamsWRGB85908618110.81.050.540.320.86548220
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN8544791819.90.560.290.240.57507915.4
Dontrelle InmanWRCHI868896140120.920.290.230.55579514.8
Bruce EllingtonWRHOU84419122111.40.450.260.220.52436114.1
Julio JonesWRATL8657741009.20.770.30.280.63436611.7
Kenny StillsWRMIA8567662608.21.020.20.220.475610011.7
Kendall WrightWRCHI8546503106.20.920.150.230.4546779.6
Keelan ColeWRJAC836116618020.80.370.340.160.4769829.1
Dez BryantWRDAL84398914011.10.440.330.270.6351817.9
Jermaine KearseWRNYJ8435726090.490.190.210.4466967.5

Dontrelle Inman tied Kendall Wright for the most targets (eight), and led the team with six receptions and 88 receiving yards. He played 95 percent of the snaps against the Packers. The Bears are one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, averaging 28.8 rushing attempts per game with quarterback Mitch Trubisky under center. These factors limit Inman’s upside to deeper formats.

WR TIER 5

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
A.J. GreenWRCIN7511511558116.410.350.20.54499622.5
Golden TateWRDET7697257313.63.880.160.270.51366921.7
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT75978323111.91.170.350.230.58538020.7
Robby AndersonWRNYJ74851679123.90.510.440.180.58568118.5
Josh BellamyWRCHI72571188116.90.480.360.20.55406713.7
Cooper KuppWRLA7647242703.41.960.090.180.34568510.7
Rishard MatthewsWRTEN755084100120.60.210.160.39788710
Curtis SamuelWRCAR75457613010.90.590.330.230.5840559.5
Keenan AllenWRLAC744860508.60.80.180.190.4159869.4
Antonio BrownWRPIT73479428013.40.50.390.230.6163957.7
Josh DoctsonWRWAS7430874012.40.340.250.160.469927
Russell ShepardWRCAR7340652009.30.620.240.20.4742577

Continue to stash Josh Doctson. His snaps continue to increase each week, and he leads the team in air yards (199) over the last three games despite seeing only 15 targets.

WR TIER 6

NamePosTeamTarRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnap %PPR Pts
Devin FunchessWRCAR6592554729.21.670.210.170.4567726.2
Chester RogersWRIND661044856182.170.250.250.55427122.7
Doug BaldwinWRSEA6595356205.82.710.130.190.38497814.5
Kelvin BenjaminWRBUF6342714011.80.590.260.210.541857.2
Ricardo LouisWRCLE6215950015.80.160.230.150.3960743.5
Jaron BrownWRARI621350208.30.260.090.130.2652653.3

Better days are ahead for Kelvin Benjamin. He led the Bills in targets and played 85 percent of the offensive snaps. The performance by the Bills entire offense left a bad taste in the mouth of fans and fantasy owners, but the team still has a WR-friendly rest-of-season schedule.

Week 11 Buy low Bills WRs

Do not let recency basis cloud your judgment as you set your fantasy lineups this week. He has an encouraging high projection from the GLSP.

week 11 targets benjamin glsp

FANTASY POINTS OVER EXPECTATION

Over the past five weeks, these are most-targeted WRs on a per game basis and their efficiency numbers.2

week 11 targets fpoe

What observations do you have after viewing this chart? What trends do you see?

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every Tuesday to help you make decisions for the upcoming week. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody). I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments to each week’s article. Those comments automatically go to our Message Boards. I will respond to as many questions as I can, and other writers (not to mention our community of well-informed readers) will jump in as well. I also encourage you to make use of our Apps. Our in-season apps will help you identify teams with great upcoming schedules, as well as insight into player-specific match ups.

What was most useful to you after reading this column?

  1. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. RACR or Receiver Air Conversion Ratio is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can also be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him.  (back)
  2. Reminder that reFPOE is receiving fantasy points over expectation and helps you conceptualize efficiency in terms of fantasy points.  (back)

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