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WR Targets: Marqise Lee Featured For The Jaguars

WR Targets takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), and weighted opportunity rating (WOPR).

Did you know Marqise Lee tied four other wide receivers for the second most targets in Week 9 with 12? He had the seventh-most air yards with 148 and the seventh-highest WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating). Lee is currently averaging 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game this season. He has averaged eight targets, 4.75 receptions, and 69.75 receiving yards over the Jaguars last four games.

Last week we conducted a mid-season review. We will continue that analysis as you prepare to attack the waiver wire for Week 10. This week, we’ll continue incorporate resources from Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards:

Standard stats tell us probably the most important facts about how a WR performed. We know how many times they were targeted, how many times they caught the ball, and how many yards they were credited with after catching a pass. Air yards fill in the gaps in our understanding. Now we can see how a WR is used by his team and how he produces his receiving yards.

WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. RACR or Receiver Air Conversion Ratio is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can also be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him.

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 1

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU1668620716112.90.420.450.360.867110020.6
Doug BaldwinWRSEA12710818625115.50.580.340.270.65708423.8
Marqise LeeWRJAC1287514818112.30.510.530.320.84668321.5
Demaryius ThomasWRDEN128701093419.10.640.370.320.73538321
Julio JonesWRATL12611827330022.80.430.640.320.92437217.8

Elevate

  • Marqise Lee
  • Julio Jones
  • Demaryius Thomas

Stable

  • Doug Baldwin
  • DeAndre Hopkins

Week 10 Targets Tier 1 Screener

Hopkins is still firmly on the WR1 radar despite the change at quarterback for the Texans. Baldwin and Jones should continue to be started every week. Thomas has been consistently fed targets all season, but he was not scoring touchdowns. This changed in Week 10, and I could care less that it was in garbage time. The Broncos quarterback situation will limit Thomas’ upside and as a result, he can be viewed as a low-end WR2 moving forward. The Seahawks, Jaguars, and Texans have very favorable schedules for WRs over the next four games.

Week 10 targets tier 1 buy low

The only WR with more air yards through than Hopkins out of this tier (1115) is Jones (973). Hopkins also has the highest WOPR at 0.81 with a solid RACR of 0.62. He continues to be criminally underrated even with the Texans QB change.

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 2

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
Marvin JonesWRDET11710712920211.70.830.460.330.82659629.7
Alshon JefferyWRPHI116841093729.90.770.360.390.84497126.4
Michael ThomasWRNO11865852707.70.760.420.410.9498214.5
Dez BryantWRDAL1167315430140.470.510.330.86466913.3
Deonte ThompsonWRBUF1078112812112.80.630.370.250.64526921.1
Davante AdamsWRGB1075311518011.50.460.490.260.74569512.3

Elevate

  • Alshon Jeffery
  • Marvin Jones

Stable

  • Michael Thomas
  • Dez Bryant
  • Davante Adams

Demote

  • Deonte Thompson

Did the Eagles reveal the blueprint on how to attack the Broncos highly touted defense? Jeffery came through for those fantasy players who stayed the course and keep deploying him into starting lineups. The only other WRs with more air yards this season than his (1,062) through Week 9 are Antonio Brown (1,290) and Hopkins (1,115).

 

Week 10 Targets Tier 2 Screener

Michael Thomas is still an excellent buy-low candidate as there is still upside based on his volume. Marvin Jones has seen 11 targets in three consecutive games. Dez Bryant has seen the sixth-most targets this season at 75 but has only caught 50.6 percent of them. Davante Adams’ success or failure is tied to Brett Hundley’s continued development as a QB in the NFL.

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 3

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
T.Y. HiltonWRIND9517514282215.81.230.690.30.93609134.5
Terrance WilliamsWRDAL991416378072.240.210.270.56558223.1
Golden TateWRDET971139570010.61.190.340.270.64355218.3
Jeremy MaclinWRBAL8989410010.41.040.230.170.41618117.8
Larry FitzgeraldWRARI9570792508.80.890.240.30.61688812
Sterling ShepardWRNYG9570108170120.650.340.240.59639312
Amari CooperWROAK945814724016.30.390.450.30.7757919.8

Elevate

  • T.Y. Hilton
  • Jeremy Maclin
  • Golden Tate

Stable

  • Amari Cooper
  • Terrance Williams
  • Sterling Shepard

Demote

  • Larry Fitzgerald

Hilton’s matchup-winning performance came at a perfect time for fantasy players.1 He’s accumulated the 11th-most air yards with a RACR of 0.78. Jacoby Brissett is a viable streamer in the right matchup, and Hilton will be a key beneficiary in those scenarios.

Week 10 targets tier 3 screener

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 4

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
DeVante ParkerWRMIA857612524015.60.610.580.190.69548112.6
Jordan MatthewsWRBUF8646581807.20.790.170.20.42719510.6
Marquise GoodwinWRSF82681542019.20.440.370.160.4967918.8
Bruce EllingtonWRHOU83228510010.60.260.180.180.463895.2
Will FullerWRHOU823215013018.80.210.330.180.5711005.2
Aldrick RobinsonWRSF821851506.40.350.120.160.3262843.8
Tyler LockettWRSEA82101481018.50.070.270.180.4655663

Elevate

  • DeVante Parker

Stable

  • Jordan Matthews
  • Marquise Goodwin
  • Bruce Ellington
  • Aldrick Robinson

Demote

  • Will Fuller
  • Tyler Lockett

DeVante Parker has averaged 6.8 targets, five receptions, and 56.8 receiving yards per game over his last four.

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 5

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
Zay JonesWRBUF765360218.60.880.170.180.38405317.3
Rishard MatthewsWRTEN74701064115.10.660.380.250.64428117
Jarvis LandryWRMIA7632-3261-0.4-10.67-0.010.170.24669915.2
Devin FunchessWRCAR7586674409.61.280.340.290.67487413.6
Mike WallaceWRBAL741960318.60.320.140.130.3587711.9
Jordy NelsonWRGB74359511013.60.370.410.180.5649837.5
Breshad PerrimanWRBAL73281312018.70.210.310.130.4235475.8

Rishard Matthews has averaged 5.8 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 53.2 receiving yards over the last four. He’s solid WR3 and should be able to coexist and be productive with Corey Davis. Devin Funchess has averaged seven targets per game over the last three and is firmly entrenched as the Panthers’ No. 1 WR after Kelvin Benjamin was traded to the Bills. Zay Jones was in the midst of his best statistical game as an NFL player before suffering a knee injury. It will be a challenge for him to see a consistent number of targets in the Bills’ run-heavy offense with Benjamin and once Charles Clay returns.

WR TARGETS LEADERS TIER 6

NamePosTeamTargetsRecRec YardsAir YardsYACTDaDOTRACRMS AirTarget ShareWOPRSnapsSnaps %PPR Pts
Cole BeasleyWRDAL642427424.50.890.090.180.34456718.4
Tavarres KingWRNYG6333970116.20.340.310.160.45355212.3
Kendrick BourneWRSF62391077017.80.360.250.120.3540545.9
Jermaine KearseWRNYJ623866140110.580.520.30.8256845.8
Mike EvansWRTB61131258020.80.10.530.210.6952882.3
Robert WoodsWRLA5470226024.43.180.10.230.41457023
Ted GinnWRNO54598912117.80.660.440.190.58376215.9
Robby AndersonWRNYJ54484511191.070.360.250.62507514.8
Randall CobbWRGB5558184003.63.220.080.130.25498310.9
Josh DoctsonWRWAS53597210014.40.820.280.160.4456898.9
Cooper KuppWRLA53545223010.41.040.240.230.5139618.4
Keelan ColeWRJAC5347381707.61.240.140.130.2949617.7
Curtis SamuelWRCAR5323404080.570.20.210.4549756.7
Corey DavisWRTEN5228625012.40.450.220.180.4239754.8
Emmanuel SandersWRDEN5130560011.20.540.190.130.3329454
Tyreek HillWRKC426476531190.840.330.120.4488415.3
Eric DeckerWRTEN4321412110.20.510.150.140.32234411.1
Taylor GabrielWRATL43565142012.81.10.120.110.2438638.9
Michael CrabtreeWROAK4340371609.21.080.110.130.2851817
John BrownWRARI415210915027.20.480.320.130.4346606.2
Allen HurnsWRJAC433148130120.650.170.110.2871896.1
Kenny StillsWRMIA4328261406.51.080.120.10.2365975.8
Nelson AgholorWRPHI42364480110.820.140.140.3140585.6

FANTASY POINTS OVER EXPECTATION

I have included a chart below that provides you a line of sight of the top-30 most targeted WRs ranked by the number of targets on a per game basis. I have also incorporated fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE).2

WEEK 10 TARGETS fpoeWhat observations do you have after viewing this chart? What trends do you see?

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every Tuesday to help you make decisions for the upcoming week. The foundation of my analysis will be built on targets but could also include other supporting metrics.

I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody). I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments to each week’s article. Those comments automatically go to our Message Boards. I will respond to as many questions as I can, and other writers (not to mention our community of well-informed readers) will jump in as well. I also encourage you to make use of our Apps. Our in-season apps will help you identify teams with great upcoming schedules, as well as insight into player-specific match ups.

What was most useful to you after reading this column?

 

 

  1. The Texans defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to WRs.  (back)
  2. If you take a player’s actual output on those targets and subtract the expected amount it provides a measure of efficiency. So if a player’s targets are worth an expected value of 10 points and he scores 15, his reFPOE is 5.0.  (back)

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