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Early GLSP Projections – Lions WRs Looking Good

On a weekly basis, I’ll use Game Level Similarity Projections to find players with surprising ranges of outcomes. Early in the week, I’ll post the results of my personal model with some quick commentary.

This will be followed up with an article that compares and contrasts these findings with those of the GLSP Apps on the site. For more information relating to the model, apps, and weekly fantasy application, check out the 2017 GLSP Primer.

Through 13 weeks, the “average projections” calculated by the model, when compared to actual results, have an absolute difference of under five and a half points. This is very competitive when measured against subjective projections or those derived through other means. As a result, the “average projections” generated by the model serve as a pretty good proxy for a more traditional projection.

My quarterback GLSP has recorded an average absolute difference of around six points. The running back and wide receiver GLSPs have been off by an average absolute difference of less than five and a half points, and the tight end GLSP by under five. As the focus of compiling GLSP projections is building a range of outcomes, I’ll take it.1

A Couple of Notes

I pulled Week 13 data Monday morning, so results from Monday night’s game did not get included when running the model for Week 14. For this week’s pull, I limited the comparable matchups searched to eight games. Certain players whose health is questionable for the coming week may have been omitted from the results.2

Quarterback

Tom Brady and Alex Smith project as the top passers and will likely score 20 or more points.

Matthew Stafford provides a strong floor but limited ceiling.

Jacoby Brissett is worth considering as a streamer given his strong median projection. Blaine Gabbert, Josh McCown, Blake Bortles, and Case Keenum, who should be rostered at this point, are also solid options.

Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff forecast with weak ranges of outcomes.

The GLSP views Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, and Marcus Mariota as middle of the road options.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGWK RK
Tom BradyNEMIA162129239
Alex SmithKCOAK1623282210
Matthew StaffordDETTB1519212011
Matt RyanATLNO1417241813
Philip RiversLACWAS1316201714
Blake BortlesJAXSEA1316191715
Josh McCownNYJDEN1218211714
Cam NewtonCARMIN1015201616
Drew BreesNOATL1315221615
Case KeenumMINCAR1215201615
Derek CarrOAKKC1114191617
Blaine GabbertARITEN1416191614
Jacoby BrissettINDBUF1118191615
Russell WilsonSEAJAX1015201517
Marcus MariotaTENARI1013181517
Ben RoethlisbergerPITBAL1015201517
Dak PrescottDALNYG1013191517
Trevor SiemianDENNYJ1014191517
Carson WentzPHILAR1013201418
Kirk CousinsWASLAC913191417
Jared GoffLARPHI1112181419
Joe FlaccoBALPIT1014191418
Tom SavageHOUSF915201417
Deshone KizerCLEGB1013201417
Andy DaltonCINCHI912151220
Brock OsweilerDENNYJ612181220
Tyrod TaylorBUFIND811161121
Jameis WinstonTBDET912141122
Mitch TrubiskyCHICIN510161123
Jimmy GaroppoloSFHOU68141023
Brett HundleyGBCLE6914923
Geno SmithNYGDAL3712825

Running Back

Matt Forte and Rex Burkhead find themselves alongside Alvin Kamara and LeSean McCoy as the week’s most favorably projected RBs. I’d caution against starting Forte over your regular starters based solely on this projection.

Marshawn Lynch forecasts with a low floor, but median and ceiling projections that make him a fringe RB1.

Orleans Darkwa and Jamaal Williams look like RB2s and merit starter consideration.

Isaiah Crowell has been up and down all season, but the GLSP sees him as a middle of the road option against the Packers.

Christian McCaffrey projects with a notably weak range of outcomes versus the Vikings, and Jay Ajayi is expected to be held in check by the Rams. Jordan Howard could also struggle. He projects with a floor of three points and ceiling of 10.

Kareem Hunt’s struggles are expected to continue. Alfred Morris also projects unfavorably, however, his range of outcomes spikes when limiting the recent game search. Please disregard his displayed projection and get him in your lineups.

The GLSP hasn’t been overly excited about Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman the last couple of weeks and isn’t expecting great performances against the Saints. Given these projections and the short week (Atlanta plays on Thursday night), both could be benched by teams with multiple options at RB.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Alvin KamaraNOATL1418241914
Matt ForteNYJDEN1119251915
LeSean McCoyBUFIND1116241817
Melvin GordonLACWAS1216211618
Leonard FournetteJAXSEA1215181519
Rex BurkheadNEMIA712201523
Todd GurleyLARPHI914171422
Mark IngramNOATL913181423
Carlos HydeSFHOU1012191423
Joe MixonCINCHI1113181422
Jerick McKinnonMINCAR714191424
Le'Veon BellPITBAL913171323
Marshawn LynchOAKKC413181331
Lamar MillerHOUSF812211326
DeMarco MurrayTENARI711181330
Orleans DarkwaNYGDAL812181328
Jamaal WilliamsGBCLE69151231
Dion LewisNEMIA612151133
Isaiah CrowellCLEGB89151132
Latavius MurrayMINCAR59141034
Alex CollinsBALPIT58131033
Frank GoreINDBUF69121033
Derrick HenryTENARI610151033
James WhiteNEMIA39131037
Theo RiddickDETTB5713938
Duke JohnsonCLEGB5713937
Tevin ColemanATLNO4813937
Deandre WashingtonOAKKC4712940
Christian McCaffreyCARMIN5710839
Samaje PerineWASLAC3611843
Bilal PowellNYJDEN4711840
CJ AndersonDENNYJ4612841
Travaris CadetBUFIND3510843
Jalen RichardOAKKC3512849
Jordan HowardCHICIN3710744
Kenyan DrakeMIANE3611743
Danny WoodheadBALPIT3610746
Austin EkelerLACWAS4712743
Tarik CohenCHICIN3510744
Jay AjayiPHILAR3612743
Mike DavisSEAJAX4711741
Javorius AllenBALPIT2610745
Chris IvoryJAXSEA457744
Kareem HuntKCOAK348650
Devonta FreemanATLNO359650
Devontae BookerDENNYJ467646
Marlon MackINDBUF2311655
Corey ClementPHILAR246650
Anthony ShermanKCOAK0210659
Alfred MorrisDALNYG127557
JD McKissicSEAJAX248555
Charles SimsTBDET247556
TJ YeldonJAXSEA258554
Aaron JonesGBCLE237553
Devante MaysGBCLE126563
Rod SmithDALNYG026467
Wayne GallmanNYGDAL136458
Matt BreidaSFHOU027460
Jamaal CharlesDENNYJ024464
Peyton BarberTBDET136460
Kerwynn WilliamsARITEN035362
Giovani BernardCINCHI135364
Elijah McGuireNYJDEN134362
Kyle JuszczykSFHOU035365
Eddie LacySEAJAX025364
LeGarrette BlountPHILAR003278
Shane VereenNYGDAL013273
Kenjon BarnerPHILAR004276
Thomas RawlsSEAJAX023271
Jacquizz RodgersTBDET002178
Jonathan StewartCARMIN012182
Alfred BlueHOUSF002177
Lance DunbarLARPHI001188
James ConnerPITBAL001188
Tommy BohanonJAXSEA002188
Terron WardATLNO002185
Corey GrantJAXSEA001193

Wide Receiver

You might notice that “Average Weekly Ranks” have not been included for WRs. For the last couple of weeks, the WR model has taken forever to run and really slowed down my process. There were a couple of things that I wanted to build into the model for next year in addition to improving its speed. I decided to get an early jump on the 2018 season and reworked the GLSP over the weekend. It now looks at some deeper DST specifics when identifying comparables and takes just a minute or two to run. Anyway, I decided to leave this attribute out for next season as I didn’t think it was really adding any meaningful value.

DeAndre Hopkins projects with an absolutely absurd range of outcomes against the 49ers. I sincerely hope that you’re not matched up against him in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

Larry Fitzgerald is the week’s second-best option. Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Julio Jones round out the top five. The Detroit duo looks like too much for the Buccaneers to handle. Both players project with low-range outcomes of 14 or more points and their comparables have averaged 20 points per game.

Sterling Shepard once again finds himself alongside the likes of Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, and Keenan Allen with a solid range of outcomes.

Marqise Lee carries WR1 upside into his matchup with the Seahawks, and Robby Anderson, who the GLSP has loved, isn’t expected to be cooled down by the Broncos.

Josh Gordon projects favorably based on one game of data.

Josh Doctson and Terrance Williams forecast with the highest upside of WRs I’d expect to be available in your league.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG Proj
DeAndre HopkinsHOUSF18273326
Larry FitzgeraldARITEN14222722
Golden TateDETTB15182620
Marvin JonesDETTB14182420
Julio JonesATLNO14202519
Adam ThielenMINCAR12192419
Antonio BrownPITBAL16182419
Sterling ShepardNYGDAL11162418
Marqise LeeJAXSEA12172418
Keenan AllenLACWAS13161817
Robby AndersonNYJDEN13162217
Jarvis LandryMIANE9182217
Michael ThomasNOATL12142016
Brandin CooksNEMIA13152016
Tyreek HillKCOAK9152016
Mike EvansTBDET11151915
AJ GreenCINCHI10151815
Demaryius ThomasDENNYJ7132015
Kenny StillsMIANE9152115
Josh GordonCLEGB10141815
Jamison CrowderWASLAC8142014
Dez BryantDALNYG10131714
Ted GinnNOATL9131814
Mohamed SanuATLNO13151714
Jermaine KearseNYJDEN10141914
Corey ColemanCLEGB8131714
Davante AdamsGBCLE8121713
Devin FunchessCARMIN7131713
Alshon JefferyPHILAR7121913
Juju Smith-SchusterPITBAL8111513
Marquise GoodwinSFHOU6111613
Mike WallaceBALPIT10141613
Nelson AgholorPHILAR8111813
Doug BaldwinSEAJAX6111612
Brandon LaFellCINCHI7131612
Kenny GolladayDETTB4101612
Terrance WilliamsDALNYG8101812
Albert WilsonKCOAK9131512
Johnny HoltonOAKKC7121512
Deonte ThompsonBUFIND8121612
Cooper KuppLARPHI7111611
Devante ParkerMIANE6111511
Dontrelle InmanCHICIN7121511
Randall CobbGBCLE7111511
Jeremy MaclinBALPIT5111511
Zay JonesBUFIND7111411
TY HiltonINDBUF5101611
Bruce EllingtonHOUSF891411
Josh ReynoldsLARPHI8111511
Donte MoncriefINDBUF6101611
TJ JonesDETTB6111511
Josh MaloneCINCHI691711
Emmanuel SandersDENNYJ681510
DeSean JacksonTBDET5101410
Josh DoctsonWASLAC571810
Dede WestbrookJAXSEA691310
Keelan ColeJAXSEA581310
Trent TaylorSFHOU681410
Cody LatimerDENNYJ781210
Travis BenjaminLACWAS7101410
Brice ButlerDALNYG591510
Andre HolmesBUFIND491610
Stefon DiggsMINCAR57139
Sammy WatkinsLARPHI58139
Seth RobertsOAKKC48119
Danny AmendolaNEMIA58129
Martavis BryantPITBAL57109
Cordarrelle PattersonOAKKC58119
Tyler LockettSEAJAX57129
Jordan MatthewsBUFIND68129
Ryan GrantWASLAC37139
Roger LewisNYGDAL69119
Eric DeckerTENARI79139
Louis MurphySFHOU49139
Tavarres KingNYGDAL59139
Torrey SmithPHILAR37129
Chester RogersINDBUF57129
Bennie FowlerDENNYJ47119
Braxton MillerHOUSF47119
Aldrick RobinsonSFHOU48129
Mack HollinsPHILAR58129
Maurice HarrisWASLAC48129
Paul RichardsonSEAJAX58108
Corey DavisTENARI48118
Jordy NelsonGBCLE48118
Tyler BoydCINCHI58108
Kendrick BourneSFHOU47108
Rashard HigginsCLEGB36118
Chris GodwinTBDET47118
Taywan TaylorTENARI46118
Tyrell WilliamsLACWAS47107
Cole BeasleyDALNYG26107
Jaron BrownARITEN36107
Demarcus RobinsonKCOAK4797
Taylor GabrielATLNO48107
JJ NelsonARITEN4597
Kenny BrittCLEGB27117
Josh BellamyCHICIN46117
Eli RogersPITBAL3697
Adam HumphriesTBDET2586
Russell ShepardCARMIN3496
Phillip DorsettNEMIA3586
Chris MooreBALPIT2496
Brandon ColemanNOATL36106
Willie SneadNOATL3596
Jarius WrightMINCAR3486
Kendall WrightCHICIN3485
Justin HardyATLNO2475
Tavon AustinLARPHI2465
Laquon TreadwellMINCAR3465
Chad HansenNYJDEN3485
Chad WilliamsARITEN0233
Kaelin ClayCARMIN0133
Damiere ByrdCARMIN0022
Markus WheatonCHICIN0132

Tight End

With Rob Gronkowski suspended, Travis Kelce is expected to be the highest-scoring TE.

Jack Doyle, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins project with top-five upside.3

Delanie Walker, Evan Engram, Jason Witten, Jimmy Graham, Cameron Brate, Hunter Henry and Kyle Rudolph forecast as safe starts.

Tyler Kroft and Eric Ebron will merit streamer consideration.

Stephen Anderson, O.J. Howard, and Ben Watson could also be considered by teams in need.

The GLSP cautions against starting Austin Hooper against the Saints and suggests that owners avoid rolling with Jared Cook against the Chiefs.

PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVG ProjAvg WK RK
Rob GronkowskiNEMIA141725198
Travis KelceKCOAK111723179
Jack DoyleINDBUF613201517
Ricky Seals-JonesARITEN712171314
Delanie WalkerTENARI812141214
Austin Seferian-JenkinsNYJDEN611191215
Evan EngramNYGDAL812131114
Jimmy GrahamSEAJAX49161022
Jason WittenDALNYG612131017
Cameron BrateTBDET58151021
Zach ErtzPHILAR6912919
Kyle RudolphMINCAR5910822
Hunter HenryLACWAS5712821
Tyler KroftCINCHI4712821
OJ HowardTBDET2513828
Stephen AndersonHOUSF4610824
Eric EbronDETTB4611723
Benjamin WatsonBALPIT469728
Jermaine GreshamARITEN259729
Jared CookOAKKC248634
Austin HooperATLNO357630
Charles ClayBUFIND468629
Julius ThomasMIANE359628
Marcedes LewisJAXSEA2510630
Vernon DavisWASLAC258532
Ed DicksonCARMIN357530
David NjokuCLEGB358533
Garrett CelekSFHOU246535
Seth DeValveCLEGB259531
Jesse JamesPITBAL236437
Tyler HigbeeLARPHI035437
George KittleSFHOU236438
Vance McDonaldPITBAL137440
Adam ShaheenCHICIN035442
CJ FiedorowiczHOUSF024342
Niles PaulWASLAC024343
Gerald EverettLARPHI023344
Darren FellsDETTB123344
Virgil GreenDENNYJ022249
Dwayne AllenNEMIA002254
Antonio GatesLACWAS024248
Richard RodgersGBCLE002155
Josh HillNOATL002154
Lance KendricksGBCLE002154

Spreadsheet Data and Average Stat Lines

In addition to compiling ranges of outcomes, my model also pulls the average stat lines from the comparable matchups generated. If you’d like to get a sense of how the included players could arrive at their projected averages, review the linked Google Sheet.

I compare the average projection for each player against my expectations and other available projections. This allows me to do a check and determine if anything odd may have occurred for a particular player. However, I don’t review the stat line generated for each. That’s my caveat that something could look weird, but the ranges of outcomes are reasonable, based on the GLSP exercise.

Here’s the Google Sheet!

  1. Not to mention, performances such as Joe Flacco’s negative three points in Week 3 are very hard to forecast but hurt the averages. Also, I haven’t removed players that got injured during the course of the game from these averages.  (back)
  2. Of course, there might be a couple of players whose status could change, or that I should have removed/included but missed.  (back)
  3. Who knew that hyphened last names translate into solid Week 14 fantasy projections for tight ends?  (back)

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