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Andy Dalton Should Not Be This Cheap

Throughout the offseason, RotoViz writers will be sharing with you our favorite picks in each round of fantasy drafts. Today I give you my favorite pick in the 14th round: Andy Dalton.

Dalton should not be available in the 14th round of Fanball drafts. With multiple top-10 QB finishes in his career, Dalton appears poised to be a league winner with his low acquisition cost in early MFL10s whether he’s drafted as a QB2 or a late-round QB1.

Each year, Dalton is undervalued for a variety of reasons and, after his whole team suffered through a poor 2017, 2018 is no different.

Comparable QBs by ADP

Dalton currently has an ADP of 167 overall and QB26 despite never finishing a season worse than QB19. What makes Dalton’s ADP especially puzzling is the group of QBs being drafted just before and after him in early Fanball drafts

PlayerADPPos. ADP2017 Finish
Alex Smith141.93QB21QB3
Blake Bortles156.03QB22QB13
Mitchell Trubisky156.16QB23QB28
Tyrod Taylor163.72QB24QB16
Case Keenum165.95QB25QB14
Andy Dalton167.20QB26QB17
Eli Manning187.85QB27QB23
Joe Flacco207.62QB28QB24
Sam Bradford216.17QB29QB47
Ryan Tannehill229.74QB30NA
Baker Mayfield233.64QB31NA

Of the five QBs being selected just before Dalton, three are playing their first season with a new team. Most puzzling of the five are Tyrod Taylor and Mitchell Trubisky. Taylor appears to be the early favorite to start for the Browns, who now feature a tantalizing group of receivers. But with the expectation that the team will select a QB with the first pick in the NFL Draft, his job may not be secure for the entire season. Trubisky, despite adding Allen Robinson to his receiving corps while gaining a new head coach and offensive coordinator, remains a questionable option at best. In 2017 he scored less than 10 fantasy points in six of his 12 starts. He only averaged 11 fantasy points per game.

History of Success

Dalton Position finish

Dalton peaked as a fantasy QB in 2013, but his 2015 might have been even better had it not been for a late-season injury that cost him three full games and most of another. In his 12 games prior to his week-14 injury, Dalton averaged 20.31 fantasy points per game. Had he maintained that pace for the final four games, he’d have finished as the QB4.

In 2017, the average QB12 finished with just under 17.2 fantasy points. With QB12 being the threshold for a starter-worthy week in MFL10s, 17.2 fantasy points or slightly better is our weekly goal. Over the course of his career, Dalton has started 109 games and scored at least 17.2 fantasy points on 46 occasions. During the last three seasons, he’s scored over 17.2 points in more then 50 percent of his starts.

Dalton QB

Conclusion

In the 14th round, there’s very little risk associated with any of the picks, but Dalton appears to be the safest pick in the round to exceed his ADP. Not only has never finished worse than QB20 for a season, but he’s performed as a top-12 QB in more than half of his games over the last three seasons.

As a QB2 paired with a mid-round QB selection, Dalton could provide top-ten QB value and add some stability at the QB position to your MFL10 squads. And if Dalton performs as a top-five QB for the second time in his career, he could be a difference maker.

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