PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for The Honda Classic

PGA National’s Champions course will play host, once again, to the Honda Classic. The course is a par 70 that plays a little over 7,100 yards depending on the setup. The course features TifEagle Bermudagrass greens. For more info on how the course has played historically, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

The perfect storm for high ownership is swirling around Justin Thomas ($11,900) again this week. He’s the defending champ here. This wasn’t necessarily the type of track we’d envision JT performing well on when he was a young, aggressive birdie chaser. Thomas can grind out courses as well as anyone these days, which is a valuable skill here. Oh, and he’s been in the top 10 in four of his past five starts … which is pretty good, too.

Scott Piercy ($8,100) is the soup du jour this week at $8,100. His form has been great recently with nine straight made cuts since the CIMB in October. Over that stretch, he’s finished with six top 20s for his efforts. Piercy has hit at least 50 greens in regulation in each of those starts.

The blend of course history and recent form is on Michael Thompson’s ($8,000) side, too. He won here back in 2013 and has played reasonably well in spurts at this event since then. Thompson has finished no worse than 13th place in his past four starts, though his ball-striking dipped just a bit at the Genesis. His whole game has been clicking recently outside of that blip on the radar, though, and he is going to be a popular option this week.

GPP Pivots

Gary Woodland ($9,800) is the most obvious play to me in the upper salary tier. He’s made 20 consecutive cuts which is the longest current streak on Tour. Out of his last 31 rounds, 20 have wound up in the 60s. During that stretch, he’s had five top-10 finishes. Woodland just continues to put the ball in play, make cuts, and find the top of the leaderboard. What’s not to like?

I’m hesitant to play first-timers at a course like this in general, but I’m making an exception for Joaquin Niemann ($7,600). His best putting surface is Bermuda, which is what we’re switching over to this week. If he can keep the ball in front of him this week I think he has a good shot at catching a hot putter and making some noise over the weekend.

Cash Locks

We’re back with the cash locks this week. So far this year, we’ve hit 14-of-16 made cuts including 10 top-20 finishes. This week’s locks are Woodland — who I discussed above — and Jason Kokrak ($7,300). Kokrak is an interesting case this week because of his price. He was slated to be in the mid-$8,000s at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and withdrew. Kokrak made the start the following week and was only $7,600. He put together another solid ball-striking week and finished 37th because of a rough outing on the greens. Kokrak is playing some of the best golf of his career. Per DataGolf, his 50-round moving average has peaked right around 0.8 strokes gained on approach a few times in his career and he’s still a bit below that number right now. If he peaks there again, I’ll get off him at some point, but his current ball-striking is sustainable at this point so I’m loading up on him.

Honda Classic Ownership Projections and Model Results

Player NameSalaryModel RatingOwnership
Justin Thomas119000.9925.2
Rickie Fowler112000.9812.5
Brooks Koepka107000.8813.5
Adam Scott103000.9221.0
Sergio Garcia100000.7228.4
Gary Woodland98001.0021.6
Webb Simpson96000.8122.5
Cameron Smith95000.4711.5
Daniel Berger94000.8910.4
Billy Horschel93000.9110.6
Luke List92000.9616.2
Byeong-Hun An91000.9311.4
Alexander Noren90000.2510.7
Emiliano Grillo89000.9015.5
Lucas Glover88000.9018.0
Zach Johnson87000.8312.0
Russell Henley86000.875.1
Matt Wallace85000.379.2
JT Poston84000.316.1
Charl Schwartzel83000.507.1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat82000.1612.5
Scott Piercy81000.7713.4
Michael Thompson80000.7518.4
Joel Dahmen79000.312.9
Russell Knox78000.9419.4
Cheng Tsung Pan78000.7617.8
Chesson Hadley77000.494.8
Meen Whee Kim77000.083.8
Joaquin Niemann76000.859.8
Graeme McDowell76000.6613.9
Talor Gooch76000.445.0
Jimmy Walker75000.693.8
Chris Kirk75000.521.8
Kelly Kraft75000.192.7
Wyndham Clark74000.611.4
Scott Brown74000.261.5
Dylan Frittelli74000.064.2
Jason Kokrak73000.9912.5
Harold Varner73000.938.3
Kevin Tway73000.792.5
Sung-jae Im73000.5314.2
Brian Harman73000.434.3
Ryan Palmer72000.714.2
Bud Cauley72000.672.5
Cameron Davis72000.631.4
Matt Jones72000.390.4
Jason Dufner72000.385.2
Trey Mullinax71000.846.6
Brian Gay71000.641.8
Brandon Harkins71000.630.4
Patrick Rodgers71000.581.8
Martin Kaymer71000.191.6
Patton Kizzire71000.131.4
Brendan Steele70000.977.1
Jim Furyk70000.958.6
Kyle Stanley70000.843.4
Sung-Hoon Kang70000.460.5
Harris English70000.400.3
Martin Trainer70000.331.8
Rory Sabbatini70000.222.3
Nick Watney69000.874.8
Adam Schenk69000.691.7
Ollie Schniederjans69000.660.4
Danny Lee69000.492.2
Austin Cook69000.452.7
Shawn Stefani69000.280.3
Sebastian Munoz69000.010.4
Jhonattan Vegas68000.822.3
Stewart Cink68000.817.8
Sepp Straka68000.680.2
Sam Burns68000.626.1
Scott Langley68000.561.8
Roberto Castro68000.551.4
Curtis Luck68000.160.2
Anders Albertson68000.021.5
Kevin Streelman67000.963.1
Keith Mitchell67000.865.6
Ryan Armour67000.741.2
Peter Uihlein67000.731.2
Bill Haas67000.540.3
Vaughn Taylor67000.515.0
Satoshi KODAIRA67000.431.4
Hunter Mahan66000.780.2
Carlos Ortiz66000.751.7
Nick Taylor66000.281.3
Ernie Els66000.240.3
Tom Hoge66000.050.2
Austen Truslow66000.030.3
Roger Sloan66000.001.3
Johnson Wagner65000.652.5
Brian Stuard65000.601.4
Sam Saunders65000.580.4
Grayson Murray65000.550.4
Richy Werenski65000.130.5
Jonas Blixt65000.110.2
Anirban Lahiri65000.040.4
Tyler Duncan64000.800.2
Andrew Landry64000.720.4
Seth Reeves64000.410.2
Adam Long64000.400.4
Henry Lebioda64000.371.2
Cameron Tringale64000.360.2
Lucas Bjerregaard64000.342.1
Julian Etulain64000.300.3
J.J. Henry63000.590.2
Jim Knous63000.520.2
Brandon Hagy63000.480.1
Brice Garnett63000.460.4
Seamus Power63000.420.2
Max Homa63000.181.2
Vijay Singh63000.150.1
Morgan Hoffmann63000.120.1
Bronson Burgoon62000.600.5
Chase Wright62000.350.2
Stephan Jaeger62000.290.2
Robert Streb62000.250.4
Roberto Diaz62000.220.2
Kyoung-Hoon Lee62000.200.2
Kramer Hickok62000.100.4
Denny McCarthy62000.071.7
Hudson Swafford61000.781.3
Cody Gribble61000.270.1
Joey Garber61000.231.2
Ryan Blaum61000.210.2
Kyle Jones61000.170.2
Peter Malnati61000.140.2
D.A. Points61000.100.1
Rod Pampling61000.090.1
Jim Herman60000.700.1
Alex Cejka60000.570.1
Ben Crane60000.341.5
John Huh60000.321.2
Adam Svensson60000.081.2
Andrew Filbert60000.050.1
Mackenzie Hughes60000.020.1

Please subscribe For Full Access to all RotoViz content and tools!

 

What’s included in your subscription??

  • Exclusive Access to RotoViz Study Hall
    • A treasure trove of our most insightful articles that will teach you the metrics that matter, time-tested winning strategies, the approaches that will give you an edge, and teach you how to be an effective fantasy manager.
  • Revolutionary Tools
    • Including the NFL Stat Explorer, Weekly GLSP Projections, NCAA Prospect Box Score Scout, Combine Explorer, Range of Outcomes App, DFS Lineup Optimizer, Best Ball Suite,and many, many, more.
  • Groundbreaking Articles
    • RotoViz is home of the original Zero-RB article and continues to push fantasy gamers forward as the go-to destination for evidence-based analysis and strategic advantages.
  • Weekly Projections
    • Built using RotoViz’s unique GLSP approach.
  • Expert Rankings
  • And a whole lot more…

Can Kyle Pitts Pay Off His ADP? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

Have We Seen the Best of Kyler Murray? Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

Palmetto Championship at Congaree: PGA DFS Breakdown

The Palmetto Championship is being held at a course that we’ve never seen before. Congaree Golf Club is down in South Carolina and is a par 71 track. As par 71s go, it’s definitely on the longer side measuring in at 7,655 yards. Greens are about average size with bermudagrass and there is water in play on 10 holes. With no data from the actual

Can Kyle Pitts Pay Off His ADP? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

Have We Seen the Best of Kyler Murray? Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a…...

Palmetto Championship at Congaree: PGA DFS Breakdown

The Palmetto Championship is being held at a course that we’ve never seen before. Congaree Golf Club is down in South Carolina and is a par 71 track. As par 71s go, it’s definitely on the longer side measuring in at 7,655 yards. Greens are about average size with bermudagrass and there is water in play on 10 holes. With no data from the actual

Related Articles

In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

Related Articles

The Blitz

Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

Data provided by

© 2021 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.

Welcome Back to RotoViz...

– IF YOU HAVE ISSUES LOGGING IN PLEASE CONTACT ROTOVIZMAIN@GMAIL.COM

– PLEASE NOTE THAT ROTOVIZ USES WORDPRESS FOR ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT. IF RESETTING YOUR PASSWORD YOU MAY BE FOWARDED TO A WORDPRESS PAGE.