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PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for The Valspar Championship

The Tour is heading to Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copperhead course for the Valspar Championship. The course is a par 71 course that plays a touch over 7,200 yards. In typical Florida fashion, there’s trouble around every corner.
There are 75 bunkers and eight water hazards that the field will have to contend with. We’re sticking with Bermudagrass greens again this week. In four of the past five years, the course has been inside of the top 10 most difficult courses that Tour players will face. Winning scores have ranged anywhere from 7-under to 14-under since 2014. If you want a more in-depth look at the course and trends, head over to yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

If it’s possible to quietly have three straight top tens, including a win, Dustin Johnson ($11,500) is the guy who can accomplish it. He’s averaging 6.7 SG: Approach per week over the past three events. Over that same span, Johnson is third in DK points, per Fantasy National. Even as the most expensive golfer, in a weak field, we could see astronomical ownership this week for the world No. 1 golfer.
Last year’s champion Paul Casey ($9,700) is in the field this week after a disappointing performance last week. Between SG: Approach and SG: Putting he lost about 10 strokes as he ejected from the tournament. It will be an interesting case study on ownership this week with the Englishman.
Since 2010, Patrick Reed ($9,500) has the third-best DK scoring average of anyone in the field with at least two starts. He’s made four of five cuts here including three top 10s. His form is questionable, though, as he has finished outside of the top 20 in four of his seven worldwide starts in 2019. Over his past twelve rounds, he’s only carded five rounds in the 60s.
Jim Furyk ($9,200) had been quietly playing some great golf for months. The volume was raised a bit with the runner-up finish at TPC Sawgrass last weekend. He has course history on his side, as well, having gone 8-for-8 in made cuts here since 2010. Over that span, Furyk has averaged 74.8 DK points, which is good for a 33.4 SOFA (Scoring Over Field Average).

GPP Pivots

The difference between DJ and Jon Rahm ($11,000) from a raw talent perspective could be up for debate. Some might say it’s a large gap, some might call it close. Either way, the range of outcomes is about the same. Whether you’re measuring cut equity or win equity, it’s pretty close. The $500 savings and the ownership discount make Rahm an interesting play before you even factor in his play. Since January, he’s hit two-thirds of his GIR in six of his seven starts. He also has six finishes inside of the top 12 during that span.
Russell Knox ($8,100) is fifth in the model this week with a 37 percent chance at a top 20.1 According to the model, he’s the best course fit by a large margin among golfers priced between $7,500 and $8,500. Since the start of the year, Knox has hit at least 70 percent of GIR in five of seven starts. In the other two, he still had birdie putts on two-thirds of his holes. The putter has held him back in his last three starts, but he’s keeping his drives in front of him and it’s only a matter of time before putts start dropping.
Bud Cauley ($7,200) is one of the cheaper options that popped in the model. Cauley is definitely more of a GPP play, having made four of his last six cuts. He’s hit the DK bonus in three of those made cuts including two in the top 15. Cauley struck it really well at Sawgrass and will look to carry some momentum into Copperhead.

Cash Locks

The cash locks cooled off a bit last week but considering the carnage that drove 6/6 lineups way down, we did alright with a couple of made cuts. Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland finished in 35th and 30th, respectively. That brings our total up to 20/22 (91 percent) made cuts and 13/22 (59 percent) top 20 finishes. Here are the cash locks for this week:

  • Jon Rahm ($11,000)
  • Russell Knox ($8,100)

Player NameSalaryPercentileOwn%
Dustin Johnson115001.0027.40
Jon Rahm110000.9915.40
Jason Day107000.9515.50
Webb Simpson104000.9414.80
Sergio Garcia101000.8922.50
Gary Woodland99000.9914.90
Paul Casey97000.9612.80
Patrick Reed95000.7216.90
Keegan Bradley94000.9613.10
Louis Oosthuizen93000.936.50
Jim Furyk92000.9822.70
Henrik Stenson91000.7614.60
Lucas Glover90000.917.70
Bubba Watson89000.864.60
Rafael Cabrera Bello88000.4910.40
Ryan Moore87000.9110.90
Jason Kokrak86000.9423.00
Kevin Kisner85000.4418.40
Brandt Snedeker84000.6623.70
Adam Hadwin83000.868.00
Charl Schwartzel82000.719.80
Russell Knox81000.9719.60
Branden Grace80000.7711.80
Tyrrell Hatton79000.9212.30
JT Poston79000.709.40
Kevin Na78000.687.50
Russell Henley78000.602.20
Sung-jae Im77000.8419.10
Ollie Schniederjans77000.588.40
Zach Johnson76000.889.20
Michael Thompson76000.786.00
Chesson Hadley75000.293.20
Graeme McDowell75000.672.50
Chris Kirk75000.851.90
Joel Dahmen74000.406.90
Steve Stricker74000.736.10
Kevin Streelman74000.741.20
Chez Reavie73000.625.40
Sam Ryder73000.474.10
Nick Taylor73000.693.70
Danny Lee73000.303.20
Joaquin Niemann72000.5611.90
Bud Cauley72000.907.80
Nick Watney72000.713.30
Sung-Hoon Kang72000.603.00
Beau Hossler72000.481.80
Roberto Castro71000.8710.30
Trey Mullinax71000.825.60
Sam Burns71000.263.70
Dylan Frittelli71000.091.60
Brian Gay71000.550.80
Denny McCarthy71000.270.70
Brian Harman70000.352.60
Cheng Tsung Pan70000.831.70
Roger Sloan70000.451.50
Stewart Cink70000.891.50
Charley Hoffman70000.631.10
Austin Cook70000.270.80
Adam Schenk69000.555.40
Scott Stallings69000.792.80
Rory Sabbatini69000.662.80
Jason Dufner69000.752.20
Ryan Armour69000.681.70
Wyndham Clark69000.651.00
Hudson Swafford69000.481.00
Patrick Rodgers68000.642.70
Vaughn Taylor68000.412.00
Carlos Ortiz68000.591.30
Cameron Davis68000.341.20
Sean O'Hair68000.101.00
Harris English68000.510.90
Richy Werenski68000.140.60
Kyoung-Hoon Lee67000.468.10
Danny Willett67000.633.70
Brendan Steele67000.732.40
Harold Varner67000.781.10
Bill Haas67000.810.90
Kelly Kraft67000.130.40
Robert Streb67000.610.40
Matt Jones67000.370.40
Adam Svensson66000.523.00
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez66000.010.80
Andrew Landry66000.420.60
Patton Kizzire66000.300.60
Brandon Harkins66000.430.40
Anirban Lahiri66000.170.40
Tom Hoge66000.030.40
Luke Donald66000.400.20
Scott Langley65000.391.80
J.J. Spaun65000.191.10
Cameron Tringale65000.530.70
Kevin Tway65000.570.50
Peter Malnati65000.360.30
Stephan Jaeger65000.530.20
John Huh65000.230.20
Dylan Meyer65000.200.20
Kramer Hickok64000.322.00
Martin Trainer64000.321.30
Peter Uihlein64000.840.50
Brice Garnett64000.280.40
Sebastian Munoz64000.500.30
Brian Stuard64000.540.20
Hunter Mahan64000.120.20
Morgan Hoffmann64000.210.10
Max Homa63000.062.50
Julian Etulain63000.762.10
Ryan Blaum63000.092.00
Sam Saunders63000.160.70
Joey Garber63000.010.70
Scott Brown63000.450.20
Chase Wright63000.000.20
Tyler Duncan63000.420.10
Seamus Power63000.350.10
Jonas Blixt62000.171.10
John Senden62000.800.60
Chris Stroud62000.330.20
Jim Knous62000.580.10
Sepp Straka62000.500.10
Billy Hurley III62000.250.10
Grayson Murray62000.250.10
Brandon Hagy62000.240.10
Ryan Vermeer62000.050.10
Henry Lebioda61000.811.00
Kyle Jones61000.070.70
Ted Potter61000.120.40
D.A. Points61000.180.10
Mackenzie Hughes61000.110.10
K.J. Choi61000.220.10
Fredrik Jacobson61000.190.00
Kenny Perry61000.370.00
Rod Perry61000.220.00
Akshay Bhatia60000.076.20
Satoshi KODAIRA60000.041.20
Seth Reeves60000.081.10
Michael Kim60000.310.10
Rod Pampling60000.040.10
Alex Cejka60000.380.10
Cody Gribble60000.150.10
Jim Herman60000.140.10
Austin Connelly60000.020.10

  1. He represents the best betting value for a T20, as well.  (back)
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