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Finding Discount Dustin Johnson at Harbour Town: Top Plays and Pivots for the RBC Heritage

The field is contending with a Harbour Town Golf Links this week after an exciting weekend in Augusta. The course is a par 71 that plays 7,101 yards. For an in-depth look at the course and historical trends, check out the preview article.

Checking The Chalk

Dustin Johnson ($11,600) is coming off of a very quiet second place finish at The Masters last week. He needed to birdie four of the last six holes to make his charge, but ultimately fell one stroke short of a playoff with Tiger. It marked his fifth straight top-10 finish. During that span, he’s averaging just over 100 DK Points and has hit at least 60 percent of his greens in regulation. There were whispers of DJ “not fitting” here. I don’t buy it. Not sure there’s a course in the world that Johnson couldn’t figure out.

Matt Kuchar ($10,000) has been on a tear lately. Nine of his past 10 starts have resulted in finishes inside of the top 30 including a 12th place finish at Augusta last weekend. He continued his stellar ball-striking hitting more than 60 percent of his greens in regulation for the 13th straight event dating back to August. Kuchar is playing some of the best golf we’ve seen from him in a long time and we know he can get it around the track at Harbour Town considering he’s won the event before.

Another name that’s garnering some interest this week is Ian Poulter ($8,600). He tied for 12th last week while hitting over 75 percent of greens in regulation at Augusta National. Since missing the cut at the Dell Technologies Championship, Poulter has rattled off a dozen made cuts in a row. During that time span, he’s finishing in the top 25 nine times.

Note: As always, make sure you check out the model and ownership projections below. As I’m writing this, it looks like these are some of the popular options, but things change as the week goes on.

GPP Pivots

While he may see similar ownership, a good pivot off of DJ which also saves some money is Jason Kokrak ($8,800). He received the highest Sim Score in the field at 88. Over their past three events, Kokrak and Johnson have been pretty close from a stat perspective. Kokrak is finding more fairways and only hitting two percent fewer greens in regulation than DJ.

The model this week really like Kuchar so it’s hard to recommend a pivot off of him. At a $300 discount and potentially less ownership though, we have Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) sitting right there. He opened with a pair of 73s at the Masters and then absolutely caught fire, going 64-68 on the weekend. Cantlay had the lead by himself after his eagle on 15. We know it didn’t go his way after a bogey-bogey-par finish, but he’s playing great golf right now and looks like he could go underowned.

I’m not quite sure what Sungjae Im ($8,400) needs to do to get some respect from the pricing algorithm at DK. He’s made a whopping 17 starts since the fall swing began. Over that time, he’s made 12 cuts including nine top 20 finishes. Im’s also hit at least 60 percent of his greens in regulation in all but one of those starts.

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 26/28 made cuts, 18/28 Top 30s, and 11/28 Top 10s. Let’s keep it rolling with this week’s locks.

  • Patrick Cantlay ($9,700)
  • One guy I haven’t mentioned yet is Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200). As far as recent form goes, he’s another great stat-based pivot off of Dustin Johnson per the Sim Scores App. If not for a stone cold putter, Fleetwood could’ve factored in last week as he hit over 70 percent of his greens in regulation for the second straight event. Last week’s effort makes 21 straight worldwide events with at least 60 percent of GIR.

Player NameSalaryOwn%Top 20 ScoreCash Score
Tommy Fleetwood920024.850.9850.992
Dustin Johnson1160023.10.9620.931
Matt Kuchar1000019.850.9920.985
Patrick Cantlay970019.10.8930.832
Ian Poulter860018.60.9390.947
Jim Furyk940017.60.9690.954
Ryan Moore810016.850.9160.924
Sung-jae Im840015.60.9240.962
Bryson DeChambeau1040015.10.6870.595
Byeong-Hun An820014.60.9770.939
Webb Simpson930014.60.9080.863
Lucas Glover780014.60.9541
Kevin Kisner910014.10.5650.84
Jason Kokrak880013.10.8090.847
Matthew Fitzpatrick850012.60.3510.359
Branden Grace830012.350.550.641
Russell Knox770012.10.9470.977
Jordan Spieth950011.60.8630.695
Xander Schauffele1090011.350.7860.679
Graeme McDowell750010.850.5880.618
Rafael Cabrera Bello760010.60.4430.55
Si Woo Kim900010.60.6720.366
Luke List77009.60.9310.916
Matt Wallace73009.60.2820.26
Eddie Pepperell72009.60.0530.137
Marc Leishman80009.350.7940.74
Francesco Molinari113008.850.9010.885
Brandt Snedeker75008.850.6560.588
Charles Howell III87008.3510.969
Justin Harding79008.10.350.2
Cameron Smith79007.60.5110.099
Charley Hoffman78007.60.5420.519
Zach Johnson75007.60.8550.802
Emiliano Grillo74007.350.6110.908
Rory Sabbatini64006.850.6950.626
Kevin Na69006.60.7020.153
Luke Donald72006.350.5340.206
Keith Mitchell73005.60.7180.58
Abraham Ancer76005.60.0150.038
Billy Horschel89005.60.6640.748
Corey Conners73005.60.840.817
Ryan Armour66005.60.740.389
Patton Kizzire67005.60.260.237
Satoshi KODAIRA64005.60.0610.13
Russell Henley73004.60.6180.855
Scott Piercy67003.60.5040.809
Adam Hadwin74003.60.8320.893
Chez Reavie68003.60.5730.634
Kevin Streelman72003.60.8470.901
Aaron Baddeley76003.10.6260.435
Alexander Noren70003.10.1070.282
Beau Hossler72003.10.3130.496
Brian Stuard67003.10.6340.718
Daniel Berger74002.60.3050.534
Scott Stallings68002.60.710.557
Cheng Tsung Pan69002.60.7790.779
Cameron Champ65002.10.4660.664
Brian Gay67002.10.580.191
Ollie Schniederjans74002.10.5270.542
Bill Haas69002.10.8170.427
Michael Thompson650020.6410.733
Harold Varner630020.7330.763
Adam Schenk710020.450.771
Ryan Palmer700020.6790.656
Joel Dahmen690020.2210.45
Andrew Putnam720020.8780.565
Bud Cauley730020.8020.71
Danny Lee71002.40.3660.214
Shane Lowry65001.50.4730.489
Wyndham Clark66001.50.8850.87
Chesson Hadley71001.50.2140.069
Andrew Landry69001.50.3440.313
Danny Willett66001.50.6490.573
Stewart Cink64001.50.8240.672
Jonas Blixt71001.50.1910.084
Charl Schwartzel71001.50.4960.458
D.J. Trahan63001.50.7630.649
Denny McCarthy640010.130.412
Sam Ryder670010.2750.466
Vaughn Taylor640010.420.473
Austin Cook660010.2370.336
Nick Watney680010.7250.687
Sam Burns670010.2440.305
Trey Mullinax710010.5190.527
Chris Kirk680010.870.756
Troy Merritt620010.0690.183
Peter Malnati660010.4350.374
J.J. Spaun700010.1680.015
Martin Kaymer70000.750.0760.061
Scott Brown62000.750.4120.794
Sam Saunders65000.750.0380.42
Brice Garnett68000.750.1450.252
Ernie Els63000.750.4810.298
Jonathan Byrd68000.750.7480.031
Kelly Kraft70000.750.0990.023
Anirban Lahiri60000.750.1980.092
Ryan Blaum61000.750.0920.076
Brian Harman70000.750.2980.511
Peter Uihlein67000.750.7710.405
Boo Weekley61000.750.5950.878
Ted Potter Jr64000.750.1760.145
Davis Love III61000.50.0230.008
Colt Knost65000.40.1830.107
Nick Taylor69000.40.6030.603
JT Poston68000.40.0840.321
Martin Laird70000.40.5570.786
Mark Anderson61000.30.3590.244
Mackenzie Hughes69000.30.4890.275
Richy Werenski63000.30.0310.046
Roger Sloan61000.30.0080.053
Adam Long60000.30.3210.702
Hudson Swafford66000.20.3970.504
Chris Stroud62000.20.3820.29
Ben Silverman61000.20.160.328
Brandon Harkins63000.20.3360.611
Alex Cejka64000.20.4580.168
Jason Dufner65000.20.7560.725
Tyler Duncan62000.20.4270.824
Harris English60000.20.2520.344
Tom Hoge62000.20.0460.122
Morgan Hoffmann64000.20.290.351
K.J. Choi60000.10.3740.443
Meen Whee Kim66000.10.2060.176
Seamus Power61000.10.2290.382
Jim Herman62000.10.1530.397
Cody Gribble60000.10.1370.267
Rod Pampling60000.10.3890.115
Michael Kim60000.10.4050.198
D.A. Points65000.10.3280.16
Ray Franz63000.10.1150.221
John Augenstein66000.10.1150.221

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