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Vegas Values and Pivots: Yahoo! RBC Heritage

The field is contending with a Harbour Town Golf Links this week after an exciting weekend in Augusta. The course is a par 71 that plays 7,101 yards. For an in-depth look at the course and historical trends, check out the preview article. We’re taking a look at Yahoo! again this week to see if we can find some value and some pivots.

Vegas Values

Finding value in DFS is incredibly important week in and week out. The price that Yahoo! sets is a product of a bunch of different factors but that’s not the only market around. Comparing prices against odds for Vegas allows you to get a better picture of how we should view these players relative to the other.

Vegas has Francesco Molinari ($42) listed as low as 14/1 coming off of a near Masters win, which would put his odds at the second lowest. And yet, there are seven golfers at the same price or higher on Yahoo! this week. This is obviously a great fit for Molinari as he’s your prototypical fairways and greens kind of golfer. He’s hit at least 65 percent of his greens in regulation in each of his past three starts and is coming off of a performance that saw him hit 73 percent of fairways. On the other hand, Marc Leishman ($42) is at the same price but listed closer to 50/1 at most books.

Ryan Moore ($30) seems underpriced on Yahoo! as well. He’s listed at 50/1 but the guys around him are all priced in the 66/1 – 100/1 range. Over his past ten rounds, Moore has finished in the 60s a half dozen times. He’s been putting it in play off the tee, averaging just under 70 percent of fairways hit over that span.

Top Pivots

Finding comparable players at lower prices also seems like a no-brainer. That’s why we put together the Sim Scores and Pivots App here. Here are a few potentially popular guys that have comps who will save you money, ownership, or both.

Dustin Johnson ($50) is the betting favorite and the highest priced golfer on Yahoo! this week. But what if you don’t want to pay for him? Tommy Fleetwood ($42) saves you $8 and is at the same price tag as Molinari and Leishman. That extra $8 only gets you five extra yards off the tee — not important here — and two percent more greens in regulation, not to mention the fact that Fleetwood is gaining more strokes tee to green than DJ currently is.

fleet
Some will be tempted to click Bryson DeChambeau’s ($47) name as well. While there’s certainly merit to that, Graeme McDowell ($27) is at a huge price discount and boasts many of the same statistics over his past three starts. McDowell is hitting more greens, gaining more strokes total, and is known for his performance on coastal courses. He isn’t going to wow you with any single part of his game, but he played well in his win at Corales and continued a solid all-around game again in San Antonio.

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Jim Furyk ($33) is getting some respect in the betting odds and is at a reasonable price on Yahoo! It might not even be a discount in ownership and he’s a little bit more expensive, but Sungjae Im ($35) just seems like a smash play here. His game isn’t all that dissimilar to Furyk’s lately. While averaging over 290 yards off the tee, Im is still hitting nearly 70 percent of fairways, while hitting over 70 percent of greens in regulation. His short game has been on point, too, as he’s gained strokes around the green in nine of his past 11 starts.
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