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PGA DFS: Muirfield Village Course Preview and Trends

We’re headed up to Ohio to Jack’s Place for the Memorial Tournament this week. The course is another familiar one. Muirfield Village GC has played host to this event since 1976. It was a bit shorter back then, but other than that it is still familiar. It’s a par 72 that plays right around 7,400 yards. There’s a fair bit of trouble around this track with the golfers contending with 73 bunkers and 13 water hazards. The bentgrass greens here run at some of the highest speeds on tour.

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Bryson DeChambeau 2018 -15 113
Jason Dufner 2017 -13 122
William McGirt 2016 -15 116.5
David Lingmerth 2015 -15 120
Hideki Matsuyama 2014 -13 115.5

OFF THE TEE

As usual, we’re looking for trends off the tee that have helped guys reach their ceiling in the past. Since 2014, there have been 18 golfers that have cracked 100 DK points. It’s a pretty even split between distance and accuracy depending on how you slice it. More golfers have finished in the top 10 of driving distance (5) than driving accuracy (2) in that group. If you look at the top 25 of those categories though, accuracy holds the edge 10-8. It makes some sense when looking at the correlations, as well. Each of the driving stats account for about 4% of DK scoring on their own. When you put them together in a stat like SG: Off the Tee, you find more signal. SG: OTT explains over 12% of DK scoring at Muirfield Village.

SG: OTT Rank (Last 12 Rounds) Golfer (Salary)
1 Rory McIlroy ($6,400)
2 Jhonnatan Vegas ($7,200)
3 Justin Thomas ($9,300)
4 Aaron Wise ($7,300)
5 Keith Mitchell ($7,100)
6 Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)
7 Harold Varner ($6,900)
8 Gary Woodland ($8,800)
9 Sung Kang ($7,700)
10 Luke List ($7,600)

ON APPROACH

If we look at that same group of 18 golfers on their second shot, it’s clear that there’s no way around GIR at Jack’s Place. Since 2014, 13 of 18 (72%) golfers finished in the top 25 of GIR. Greens in regulation explains 27% of DK scoring in this event over that same timeframe. As always, there’s no way around getting birdie putts regardless of how the rest of the course plays.

GIR Rank (Last 24 Rounds) Golfer (Salary)
1 Tiger Woods ($11,200)
2 Kevin Streelman ($7,400)
3 Matt Kuchar ($9,400)
4 Keegan Bradley ($7,600)
5 Kevin Na ($8,400)
6 Tyrrell Hatton ($7,700)
7 Joel Dahmen ($7,000)
8 Emiliano Grillo ($7,900)
9 Justin Rose ($10,800)
10 Aaron Wise ($7,300)

Key Stats

  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Bryson DeChambeau.

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