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PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for Wells Fargo Championship

 

Quail Hollow Club has played host to this event every year but one since the 2003 season teed off. The course itself is no joke as it is a par 71 that plays over 7,550 yards. For a more in-depth look at the course and trends for those who’ve performed well, check out the preview article here.

Checking the Chalk

Rory McIlroy ($11,800) is a name that people will be very interested in this week. It’s impossible to argue against him for golf reasons. His “disastrous” start came at Augusta where he finished in 21st place. Besides that disappointment, he hasn’t posted a finish outside of the top six on Tour during 2019. Over his last 24 rounds, he is first in SG: Tee to Green. Rickie Fowler ($10,600) is coming off of a ninth place finish at The Masters. He hasn’t missed a cut since last May, so it makes sense that people will gravitate towards his name when building lineups.

Tony Finau ($9,300) and Jason Kokrak ($8,700) are also garnering some attention. Finau is coming off of another strong performance at Augusta after finishing 5th again at The Masters. He’s made 22 of 23 cuts and has 15 top-25 finishes in that span. What Kokrak lacks in a long track record like Finau has, he makes up for with the upside that he’s shown this year. He’s made all 10 of his cuts so far this season with just two finishes outside of the top 20.

Note: As always, make sure you check out the model and ownership projections below. As I’m writing this, it looks like these are some of the popular options, but things change as the week goes on.

GPP Pivots

I wrote about McIlroy and Fowler’s closest pivots in the field in the Yahoo! article.

Jimmy Walker ($7,500) is Finau’s closest comp on the RotoViz Sim Scores and Pivots App this week. They’ve actually been shockingly similar, with similar driving and approach stats up and down the line. Walker hasn’t quite found his ceiling recently but at such a price and ownership discount, he’s worth a GPP dart.

The list of Kokrak’s comps based on recent form is quite encouraging. Wyndham Clark ($7,400) will go under-owned but he’s been playing pretty well lately. He had excellent form heading into the RBC Heritage. Clark was completely undone by a 78 on Saturday there but outside of that one blowup round he’s in good form. On courses over 7,400 yards, Clark has averaged 1.2 SG: Tee to Green compared to -1.9 on shorter courses.

Golfer Sim Score
Keith Mitchell ($7,800) 97.3
Wyndham Clark ($7,400) 96.7
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,200) 93.8
Charles Howell III ($8,400) 91.8
Rickie Fowler ($10,600) 91.7

It sounds completely ludicrous but Danny Lee ($7,300) has a 93 Sim Score to Justin Rose ($10,300). Over their past three starts, they have almost identical driving accuracy, driving distance, and greens in regulation numbers.

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 28/30 made cuts, 20/30 Top 30s, and 12/30 Top 10s. Let’s keep it rolling with this week’s locks.

  • Hideki Matsuyama ($10,100)
  • Charles Howell ($8,400)

Ownership Projections and Model Rankings - Wells Fargo Championship

Player NameDK SalaryOwnership ProjectionModel Percentile
Rory McIlroy1180028.501.00
Rickie Fowler1060016.500.81
Justin Rose1030020.000.95
Jason Day1100016.000.91
Tony Finau930023.100.84
Phil Mickelson910019.400.93
Webb Simpson970010.600.92
Gary Woodland900018.000.93
Hideki Matsuyama1010013.400.97
Paul Casey950016.000.96
Patrick Reed880011.100.73
Sergio Garcia99007.100.76
Charles Howell III840013.100.99
Jason Kokrak870019.900.89
Henrik Stenson89005.000.78
Sung-Jae Im860012.040.97
Keegan Bradley800012.400.91
Lucas Glover850011.700.95
Byeong-Hun An830018.490.99
J.B. Holmes79007.000.77
Keith Mitchell780018.000.85
Chez Reavie74002.940.52
Jhonattan Vegas82008.000.98
Luke List800015.000.94
Aaron Wise810018.000.85
Adam Hadwin72004.420.61
Zach Johnson79006.000.68
Daniel Berger77007.360.40
Michael Thompson74009.310.59
Cameron Champ72005.900.80
Pat Perez71001.490.24
Joel Dahmen760011.400.04
Kyle Stanley75003.550.60
Jimmy Walker75001.820.79
Danny Lee73002.860.54
Ryan Armour71000.890.65
Chesson Hadley70004.160.47
Beau Hossler69001.730.31
Kevin Streelman77007.700.76
Stewart Cink65001.680.88
Joaquin Niemann74002.280.78
Harold Varner700010.000.90
Dylan Frittelli74002.430.08
Danny Willett68001.120.66
Sung-Hoon Kang78003.820.01
JT Poston75003.760.13
Russell Henley73002.030.62
Scott Stallings73001.550.80
Brendan Steele72001.220.87
Brian Harman68001.090.50
Rory Sabbatini77009.320.41
Nick Watney76005.190.83
Chris Stroud69000.560.34
Chris Kirk68001.100.72
Bud Cauley71002.500.67
Sam Burns720014.400.57
Matt Jones72002.500.50
Ollie Schniederjans70002.000.82
Vaughn Taylor66005.500.32
Wyndham Clark74008.320.89
Denny McCarthy70001.080.07
Peter Uihlein70001.140.86
Kelly Kraft68000.560.11
Jason Dufner67000.690.35
Martin Trainer66001.090.66
Cameron Davis64001.260.64
Anirban Lahiri64000.610.20
Roberto Castro76003.600.64
Trey Mullinax75009.820.82
Kyoung-Hoon Lee73003.340.71
Nick Taylor73000.560.21
Scott Brown73000.560.38
Curtis Luck72000.560.25
Matt Every72000.560.27
Seamus Power71000.740.58
Kramer Hickok71000.560.19
Mackenzie Hughes71000.770.01
Bill Haas71000.560.69
Cameron Tringale70000.900.60
Martin Laird70000.560.56
Fabian Gomez70000.560.40
Brandon Harkins69000.690.43
Carlos Ortiz69001.240.72
Hudson Swafford69000.560.54
Padraig Harrington69000.560.74
Jonas Blixt69000.560.22
David Hearn69000.400.53
Henry Lebioda68005.500.87
Robert Streb68001.250.45
Richy Werenski68000.560.09
Ernie Els68000.400.48
Meen Whee Kim67000.560.15
Johnson Wagner67005.000.63
Adam Schenk67002.400.51
Peter Malnati67000.990.44
Harris English67000.650.30
Ryan Blaum67000.400.13
Jonathan Byrd67000.400.75
Ted Potter Jr66000.560.18
Julian Etulain66001.190.33
Sam Saunders66000.600.36
Max Homa66001.100.39
Stephan Jaeger66000.400.70
Ben Crane66000.400.36
Benjamin Silverman65000.400.17
Sepp Straka65004.000.68
Brandon Hagy65001.460.58
Dominic Bozzelli65000.570.46
Josh Teater65000.560.00
Shawn Stefani65000.400.56
Billy Hurley III65000.400.31
Fredrik Jacobson64000.400.14
Jim Knous64000.560.70
Brice Garnett64000.560.10
Scott Langley64000.400.52
Brady Schnell64000.400.11
Alex Prugh64000.400.74
Sang-moon Bae63000.400.05
Adam Svensson63000.560.42
Seth Reeves63000.770.49
Kyle Jones63000.400.55
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez63000.400.02
Roberto Diaz63000.400.07
John Chin63000.400.44
Cody Gribble63000.200.33
Roger Sloan62001.040.16
Nate Lashley62001.000.37
Alvaro Ortiz62000.780.06
Adam Long62000.560.09
Jim Herman62000.200.38
Chris Thompson62000.200.27
Nicholas Lindheim62000.400.23
Tyler Duncan62000.200.48
Doc Redman62000.200.25
Will MacKenzie61000.560.15
Anders Albertson61000.400.21
Chase Wright61000.200.19
Sebastian Munoz61000.200.42
J.J. Henry61000.200.46
John Senden61000.200.62
Broc Everett61000.200.34
Chad Collins61000.200.29
Brendon Todd61000.200.29
Tom Lovelady60001.000.83
Wes Roach60001.000.17
Tom Hoge60000.560.05
Joey Garber60000.200.03
Smylie Kaufman60000.720.28
Rod Pampling60000.200.26
Colt Knost60000.200.23
Zack Sucher60000.200.12
Steve Scott60000.200.03

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