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RBC Canadian Open: GPP Plays and Ownership Projections

The Tour is heading North for the RBC Canadian Open again this year. For the first time since 2012, though, Hamilton Golf and Country Club will play host to a PGA Tour event. The course itself is a sub-7,000-yard, par-70 track. There are bentgrass greens here. There’s a creek that crosses nine of the holes here and 87 bunkers litter the course.

Yesterday’s course preview article highlights the trends and stats you need to pay attention to.

If you’re playing on Yahoo!, be sure to check out the top values and pivots from our PGA Sim Scores and Pivots app.

Checking the Chalk

Dustin Johnson ($11,900) has made eleven starts worldwide in 2019. All he’s done with those starts is finish in the top 10 on eight separate occasions, including two victories and two runner-ups in majors. Whether it’s being overshadowed by Brooks Koepka’s major dominance or the young guns coming up on tour, DJ hasn’t generated the buzz he deserves for the season he’s put together. Over his past five events, he’s averaging over seven strokes tee to green, per the RotoViz Splits App.

Scott Piercy ($9,300) has been playing extremely well lately but we aren’t used to seeing him at a price like this in a regular, full-field event. Piercy has made six straight cuts with a couple of top-three finishes. Couple that with the fact that he actually won this event at this course when it was played in 2012, and you’re looking at a pretty popular option this week.

Jim Furyk ($8,800) won this event way back in 2006. He’s in the field again this week, and while his win seems like ages ago Furyk has seemingly turned back the clock over the past few months. The last two times we’ve seen him, he’s averaging just under 3.5 SG: Tee to Green. Over that span, he’s carded five of his eight rounds in the 60s while averaging over 70% of greens in regulation and over 75% of fairways hit.

GPP Plays

Shane Lowry ($8,600) is an interesting name this week. Per the Sim Scores and Pivots app, Lowry is one of the closest comps in the field for some guy named Dustin. His average SG: Tee to Green since the start of 2014 is 1.5. Over his last two starts, though, that number has ballooned to 6.75 strokes.

Kevin Tway ($7,700) is a name that stands out to me here as well. He seems to have found his ball-striking again after a 19th-place effort at Colonial CC a couple of weeks ago. Since the start of 2014, Tway has outperformed his SG splits on courses shorter than 7,000 yards. Put simply, he can overpower a course like Hamilton Golf & Country Club.

Aaron Wise ($7,800) is coming in fresh off of missing the cut on the number at the Memorial. If we look at his stats, instead of his recent finish position we see a golfer who has been underperforming relative to their ball-striking. Over his past four events, Wise has hit over 70% of his greens in regulation. During that same stretch, he’s losing over 2.1 strokes on the greens. If his putter can turn around a bit in a field like we have this week, we should see far better results for the 22-year-old.

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 35/40 made cuts, 24/40 top 30s, and 14/40 top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Dustin Johnson ($11,900)
  • Jim Furyk ($8,800)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - RBC Canadian Open

NameDK$Projected OwnershipT20 Model ScorePower Ranking Score
Dustin Johnson1190029.50.931.00
Brooks Koepka1170024.50.870.88
Rory McIlroy1120017.50.960.83
Matt Kuchar1050022.50.830.81
Justin Thomas1000023.60.960.76
Webb Simpson970019.50.730.80
Sergio Garcia950015.90.560.71
Scott Piercy930022.90.690.76
Henrik Stenson910022.20.400.72
Brandt Snedeker900016.10.250.68
Bubba Watson890014.30.570.66
Jim Furyk880018.51.000.63
Shane Lowry860014.90.430.67
Keegan Bradley850012.70.610.62
Bud Cauley840015.40.480.68
Adam Hadwin830012.80.250.63
Ryan Palmer82009.70.120.56
Austin Cook81007.70.080.54
Lucas Bjerregaard80009.30.040.51
Daniel Berger80006.90.110.61
Sung-Jae Im79009.90.430.52
Jimmy Walker79009.60.420.59
Erik Van Rooyen780014.30.130.49
Aaron Wise78007.80.910.63
Jonas Blixt78005.40.230.62
Joaquin Niemann770013.00.330.62
Alexander Noren77007.90.200.62
Kevin Tway77007.20.420.60
J.B. Holmes76007.00.070.48
Graeme McDowell76006.80.050.53
Brian Harman76006.00.110.42
Zach Johnson76004.90.440.61
Nick Watney750013.00.470.64
Corey Conners750011.90.210.51
Mackenzie Hughes75007.60.050.50
Russell Henley75004.70.250.56
Danny Willett74006.70.220.56
Peter Uihlein74002.40.180.69
Matt Every74002.20.030.56
Kramer Hickok74001.90.340.50
Dylan Frittelli73005.80.230.61
Danny Lee73005.30.040.50
Denny McCarthy73003.40.060.64
Trey Mullinax73003.10.030.46
Shawn Stefani73001.60.230.58
Harris English73001.20.230.53
Ryan Armour72008.60.440.52
Scott Stallings72004.80.100.45
Brian Gay72003.70.070.53
Sebastian Munoz72001.70.190.58
Martin Laird72000.50.310.59
Seamus Power72000.50.150.51
Peter Malnati71005.90.080.59
Talor Gooch71002.10.020.50
Cameron Tringale71001.30.200.50
Luke Donald71001.10.110.47
Harold Varner71001.10.190.52
Bill Haas71000.90.450.49
Nick Taylor71000.90.150.48
J.J. Spaun70002.00.070.56
Josh Teater70001.80.120.49
Ollie Schniederjans70001.10.030.42
Stephan Jaeger70001.10.110.48
David Hearn70000.70.090.44
Wyndham Clark70000.40.010.50
Brandon Harkins70000.30.090.45
David Lingmerth69001.20.170.54
Chris Stroud69000.90.040.57
Padraig Harrington69000.90.090.41
Zack Sucher69000.70.010.44
Cameron Davis69000.40.100.47
Roberto Castro69000.30.180.29
Benjamin Silverman69000.30.020.42
Nicholas Lindheim69000.30.010.49
Sepp Straka68004.80.070.57
Adam Schenk68004.00.050.48
Johnson Wagner68003.00.040.58
Tyler Duncan68001.80.030.47
Jim Knous68001.00.050.53
Roberto Diaz68000.90.010.47
Roger Sloan68000.30.090.31
Chad Campbell68000.30.240.36
Nate Lashley67005.40.060.60
Henry Lebioda67003.40.460.52
D.J. Trahan67001.20.080.54
Alex Prugh67000.90.130.46
Curtis Luck67000.70.000.37
Scott Brown67000.30.010.44
Robert Streb67000.30.140.35
Brady Schnell67000.30.000.50
Sam Saunders66000.90.010.48
Tom Hoge66000.70.000.45
Ben Crane66000.70.060.48
Brice Garnett66000.40.050.44
Richy Werenski66000.30.010.51
Jonathan Byrd66000.30.090.30
Alex Cejka66000.30.040.35
Adam Svensson65000.80.200.44
Hudson Swafford65000.70.060.43
Kelly Kraft65000.30.000.39
Fabian Gomez65000.10.080.36
Brandon Hagy65000.10.010.43
Cody Gribble65000.10.000.31
Ricky Barnes65000.10.080.40
Julian Etulain64001.20.080.66
Collin Morikawa64000.80.230.02
Scott Langley64000.70.060.28
Joey Garber64000.10.030.41
Albin Choi64000.10.090.02
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez64000.10.000.34
Austin Connelly64000.10.000.00
Richard T. Lee64000.10.000.02
Carlos Ortiz63000.80.050.47
Dominic Bozzelli63000.80.040.50
Michael Gligic63000.70.010.02
Mike Weir63000.70.080.20
Drew Nesbitt63000.70.000.02
Meen Whee Kim63000.30.000.25
Chad Collins63000.10.110.34
J.J. Henry63000.10.100.41
Chase Wright62000.70.010.46
Jake Knapp62000.10.000.02
Tom Lovelady62000.10.040.38
Tyrone Van Aswegen62000.10.090.39
Ryan Yip62000.10.240.02
Will Claxton62000.10.010.07
Chris Crisologo62000.10.020.02
Joseph Deraney62000.10.010.02
Paul Barjon61000.50.060.02
Marc-Étienne Bussières61000.50.010.02
Martin Trainer61000.30.030.22
Kyle Jones61000.10.000.28
Derek Fathauer61000.10.000.32
Wes Roach61000.10.050.41
Jim Herman61000.10.050.39
Rod Pampling61000.10.180.23
Anders Albertson60000.70.010.17
Martin Piller60000.70.030.41
Seth Reeves60000.50.080.41
Colt Knost60000.50.000.41
Chris Thompson60000.10.000.13
John Chin60000.10.070.39
Joey Savoie60000.10.130.02
Josh Whalen60000.10.010.02
Michael Blair60000.10.010.02
Richard Jung60000.10.000.02
Image Credit: Daniel Dunn/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Jim Furyk.

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