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The Young Guns are Too Cheap: Values and Pivots for the John Deere Classic on Yahoo!

After a few weeks with debut courses on Tour we’re back with a familiar venue in TPC Deere Run. We’re looking at a 7,100-yard par-71 course out in Illinois for the John Deere Classic as our last stop before The Open Championship. The course features bentgrass greens that are around tour average at 6,000 square feet. The course is dotted with 78 bunkers and four water hazards.

Check out this week’s course preview to learn more about TPC Deere Run and the important stats and trends

Vegas Values

There are some names at interesting prices at the John Deere Classic. A name that seems like a big stay away is Michael Thompson ($40). He’s priced at $40 but has odds to win at 140/1 at most books. Thompson has missed five of his past seven cuts this season and is just three for five at this track. He last made a cut here in 2015 when he finished 55th. 

Wyndham Clark ($29) is under $30 this week but is surrounded by guys with 100/1 and up odds. Meanwhile, he’s sitting at 40/1. After a tough stretch through the month of May his game has clicked lately. He’s made three straight cuts with all three finishes in the Top 20, culminating in a 5th place effort at the 3M Open last week. Over that span of 12 rounds, he’s only had one round above the 60s. Clark’s ball-striking has improved steadily each week over that stretch as well, hitting more than 60% of GIR in each start. 

Viktor Hovland ($27), Collin Morikawa ($26), Matthew Wolff ($20) are criminally underpriced on Yahoo! this week. They finished 13th, 2nd, and 1st last week, respectively. They are all young and haven’t proven that they can do this over a long stretch, but from a talent and recent form perspective it’s hard to argue that they aren’t all in the top five to ten for this field. 

Price Pivots

It’s not often that Charles Howell III ($47) is the highest priced golfer on the slate. But we’re a week out from The Open Championship, so here we are. Daniel Berger ($37) gives you a savings of $10 from Howell. Over their past three starts, their numbers have been basically identical. With identical ball-striking numbers and length off the tee, it’s going to be very hard to make the case for a $47 Howell. 

Sungjae Im ($44) has been a staple in our PGA content this year. His closest comp this week is another RV favorite in Joaquin Niemann ($42). He’s carded 12 rounds in the 60s over his last four starts. Over that stretch, Niemann has hit at least two-thirds of his GIR in every start, including two straight events over 80%. If you’re looking for another slight discount at likely lower ownership, Kevin Tway ($40) is an interesting option as well. We’ve seen him figure out ways to overpower tracks like this before and ride a hot putter to a solid finish. The missed cut in his last event would’ve been concerning if it wasn’t for the fact that he still hit 75% of his greens in regulation while clubbing down off the tee. 

Lucas Glover ($43) found his game a bit last week, finishing seventh at the 3M Open. After struggling through June with his irons, he hit 72% of GIR and nearly 70% of his fairways. Bronson Burgoon ($20) is sitting at min price. His game is rounding into shape after hitting a career low 44% of greens in regulation at the Memorial. Since then he’s made all three of his cuts and has hit an average of 63% of greens in regulation. Couple that with the fact that he’s hitting more fairways than Glover and is slightly longer off the tee and it’s hard to argue Burgoon isn’t a steal at his price. Also, if you’re into the course history angle he was runner up here last season. 

Image Credit: Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann.

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