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The 3 and 10 Rule – A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate

Author's Note, August 2, 2019: so this piece can be used for research, I've changed the title and updated the piece with findings for 22-year old rookies since the year 2000. This piece originally posted on June 17, 2019 and featured on the 21-year-old findings.

In my opinion, the RotoViz Screener is the most powerful, most useful, and most creative research tool in the fantasy football industry.

It can be used to query just about anything your mind can conjure up. When you have a database with every NFL play dating back to 2000, the possibilities are endless.

I planned to use the Screener for some deep fantasy football research on D.J. Moore -- but I didn't have to invest much time before happening upon an important discovery. Under Global Filters I set the Screener back as far as it goes (2000), set the age to 21 years for minimum and maximum, and set Play by Play Query 1 to display reREC (receptions) and GMS (games). The output gave me a sample of 52 wide receivers who have played in a NFL game since 2000, along with their receptions in that season. The Screener displays query returns sorted from highest to lowest by the first variable you enter in display variables, which was reREC in this case. The top of the list leapt out and punched me in the face.

I downloaded the data and calculated receptions per game. I couldn't believe my eyes. I cross-referenced the data using pro-football-reference.com for PPR scoring since 2000 as a double-check.

The 3 and 10 Rule - A Pair of Rookie Wide Receiver Metrics with an Astonishing Hit Rate

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