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Patrick Cantlay is Ready for the Playoffs: Picks and Plays for The Northern Trust on DraftKings

The field is set and we’re ready for the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust will be held at Liberty National GC this year. The scorecard for this year’s event shows it playing as a 7,370-yard par 71. 

With such a small sample of prior results here, there’s no course preview. That doesn’t mean there aren’t some trends we can check out, though. It’s been pretty even between distance and accuracy. There have been 48 golfers to finish in the top 20 of DK scoring in those two events. Of that group, 10 have hit the top 10 in distance compared to eight that got there in accuracy off the tee. In weeks like these, there has to be a higher emphasis on ball striking. 

Checking the Chalk

Justin Thomas ($10,000) is on the upswing once again. After struggling with a wrist issue for a bit since the Florida swing, he’s turned around his season and looks like he’s ready to make a run. Thomas has strung together three straight finishes inside of the top 12 for the first time since the Spring. Over that span, seven of his 12 rounds have finished in the 60s. There’s no question about his talent, and now that he’s healthy, Thomas should be in line for a big week. 

Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) is underpriced this week. There’s no two ways about it. He has just the 10th highest salary on DK and is fourth in my model this week. Since missing the cut at the Players, he has made eight straight cuts. Only one of those finishes has ended up worse than a tie for 21st. Per the RotoViz Splits App, he’s averaging over 7.0 SG: Tee to Green during that stretch. 

Billy Horschel ($8,000) has been excellent lately and is a popular cheaper option who makes for a good play on DraftKings as well as on Yahoo!

GPP Plays

He’s the cover boy on the Yahoo! piece but it’s worth noting here how well Collin Morikawa ($8,500) has fared recently. The new addition to the Tour has been nothing short of spectacular and he comes in just behind Rory McIlroy ($11,400) in the Power Ranking Model. His raw score of -2.55 gives him a fair salary of over $12,000, even in this field. 

Sungjae Im ($7,500) and Joaquin Niemann ($7,500) are far too cheap this week. Their power ranking score puts them in the -1.5 to -1 group. That group has hit the top 5 11.1% of the time and made the cut at a 75% clip. They would both be more expensive if they didn’t have recent MCs on their resume at the Open Championship. Im went 71-80 with uncharacteristic blowups while Niemann went 76-71 to miss the cut. Each played well last week in a bounce-back performance, though, with Im and Niemann finishing in sixth and 13th place, respectively. 

I’m going to keep banging the Corey Conners ($6,500) drum until he figures out how to putt and it pays off. A quick look at his game log shows that he’s made just three of his past six cuts. In two of those missed cuts, he’s hit over 75% of GIR while missing the weekend. Of all the events in our database – dating back to 1990 – that’s only happened about 2% of the time. Even without the putter, he’s managed to score well. Conners has carded six of his past eight rounds in the sixties, including five straight. 

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for the cash locks are 53/58 (91.3%) made cuts, 39/58 (67.2%) top 30s, and 17/58 (29.3%) top 10s. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
  • Collin Morikawa ($8,500)

Ownership Projections and Model Results - Northern Trust

NameDK$FinalPower Ranking
Brooks Koepka1200014.50-1.57
Rory McIlroy1140015.50-2.79
Dustin Johnson107008.00-1.61
Jon Rahm1040012.31-1.76
Justin Thomas1000026.00-1.38
Tommy Fleetwood980015.00-1.65
Justin Rose960013.00-1.68
Webb Simpson940019.00-2.13
Rickie Fowler930013.50-1.53
Patrick Cantlay920025.46-2.03
Matt Kuchar910010.60-1.33
Tiger Woods90009.80-1.37
Xander Schauffele890018.31-1.22
Adam Scott880011.50-1.25
Francesco Molinari87003.80-0.43
Bryson DeChambeau860016.03-0.76
Collin Morikawa850014.01-2.56
Hideki Matsuyama840015.66-1.32
Tony Finau830020.00-0.73
Jason Day82007.80-0.97
Patrick Reed810015.48-1.05
Billy Horschel800016.00-1.03
Jordan Spieth80007.00-1.06
Louis Oosthuizen79007.40-0.70
Shane Lowry79001.00-1.91
Byeong Hun An78009.00-1.21
Gary Woodland780018.00-0.81
Marc Leishman780011.00-0.90
Rory Sabbatini77008.98-1.50
Matthew Wolff77008.00-1.22
Chez Reavie76007.13-0.99
Brandt Snedeker76001.50-1.02
Ian Poulter76001.20-0.27
Sungjae Im75006.00-0.82
Joaquin Niemann750017.43-1.05
Charles Howell III750011.00-1.14
Tyrrell Hatton75003.40-1.12
Jason Kokrak74008.00-0.84
Bubba Watson74006.00-0.42
Andrew Putnam74002.00-0.41
Sergio Garcia74002.00-0.50
Lucas Glover73007.87-1.01
Scott Piercy73002.80-1.19
Kevin Kisner73001.70-0.49
Ryan Moore73001.03-0.54
J.T. Poston72001.87-0.63
Kyle Stanley72009.23-0.29
Brian Harman72004.41-0.96
Danny Willett72003.38-0.69
Cameron Smith72001.86-0.39
Phil Mickelson71006.930.75
Keegan Bradley71005.08-0.22
Jim Furyk71005.00-1.06
Si Woo Kim71004.62-0.02
Adam Hadwin71001.85-0.70
Emiliano Grillo70007.10-0.53
Kevin Streelman70003.90-0.91
Kevin Na70001.87-0.59
Russell Henley70001.47-0.72
Russell Knox70001.38-0.87
Ryan Palmer69005.82-0.74
Aaron Wise69004.13-0.49
Martin Laird69001.36-1.11
Abraham Ancer69001.05-0.46
Dylan Frittelli69000.81-0.67
Bud Cauley68002.40-0.71
Brice Garnett68001.30-0.92
Graeme McDowell68000.78-0.99
Branden Grace68000.750.16
Nate Lashley68000.69-0.80
Andrew Landry67003.04-0.40
Jhonattan Vegas67001.91-0.47
Vaughn Taylor67001.88-0.96
Nick Watney67001.32-0.35
J.B. Holmes67000.870.70
Cameron Tringale66003.00-1.33
Sepp Straka66003.00-1.44
Denny McCarthy66000.99-0.94
Kiradech Aphibarnrat66000.80-0.26
Brian Stuard66000.53-0.43
Nick Taylor66000.36-0.70
Corey Conners65008.00-0.14
Keith Mitchell65003.19-0.01
Charley Hoffman65001.04-0.06
Ryan Armour65000.94-0.48
Mackenzie Hughes65000.44-0.67
Sam Ryder65000.29-0.39
C.T. Pan64000.770.17
Harold Varner III64000.87-0.19
Roger Sloan64001.24-0.49
Sebastian Munoz64000.37-0.80
Wyndham Clark64000.31-0.66
Peter Malnati64000.26-0.50
Troy Merritt63001.82-0.79
Luke List63000.540.35
Joel Dahmen63000.480.10
Pat Perez63000.35-0.21
Scott Stallings63000.30-0.27
Matt Jones63000.29-0.71
Matt Every63000.19-0.40
Sung Kang62000.330.06
Patton Kizzire62001.310.24
Adam Schenk62000.73-0.47
Michael Thompson62000.41-0.22
Kevin Tway62000.350.72
J.J. Spaun62000.27-0.14
Chris Stroud62000.22-0.14
Cameron Champ61001.041.18
Aaron Baddeley61000.50-0.42
Brian Gay61000.250.32
Kelly Kraft61000.250.79
Carlos Ortiz61000.17-0.38
Jonas Blixt61000.16-0.32
Scott Brown61000.12-0.14
Talor Gooch60001.92-0.32
Chesson Hadley60001.000.54
Max Homa60000.880.10
Danny Lee60000.350.19
Adam Long60000.260.12
Kyoung-Hoon Lee60000.24-0.15
Patrick Rodgers60000.130.02
Image Credit: Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.

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