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PGA DFS: Plays and Pivots for the TOUR Championship on DraftKings

The field is set at 30 for the TOUR Championship. The field will take on East Lake Golf Course as it has every year since 2004. The course is a par 70 that plays just over 7,300 yards. The greens are around 6,300 square feet and are bermudagrass. Golfers that were lucky enough to qualify for the TOUR Championship will make have to deal with 74 bunkers and six water hazards as they make their way around the track. Make sure you dive into the preview and trends article so you know which stats are important in limiting your player pool this week.

Most of the win equity for this week’s tournament is up at the top of the leaderboard. Given the staggered scoring from the start, it would take a herculean effort from someone at the bottom of the leaderboard to make up the strokes necessary to win the tournament.

Checking The Chalk

Justin Thomas ($15,500) is coming off of a victory at the BMW Championship that vaulted him into the top spot for this week’s Tour Championship. Typically that wouldn’t mean a ton, but given the new format where the field is starting with staggered scoring, it’s a huge advantage. Before Thomas sticks his tee in the ground on the first hole, he’ll be sitting at 10-under. Thomas has been on fire lately. Over his past 12 rounds, he’s been in the 60s 10 times. During that stretch, he’s hit nearly 69% of GIR and is gaining 7.76 strokes tee to green, per the splits app.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600) will start the week at 5-under which is five strokes back of the leader Justin Thomas. He spent much of the year towards the top of the leaderboard in 2019, but starting with a missed cut at the Open Championship, Rory hasn’t been quite as brilliant with his ball-striking. He’s nearly 2.5 strokes below his baseline in the tee-to-green category, but has been saved by his putter. Over the past 12 rounds, McIlroy has gained over three strokes putting. It’s hard to pick against Rory when he needs to come out aggressively, but if his putter wavers at all it could be a long week for him.

GPP Plays

Patrick Cantlay ($12,400) is Justin Thomas’s closest chaser as he starts the week just two strokes off the lead. It’s hard to imagine anyone with a better shot of catching Thomas than Cantlay. Over his past 12 rounds, he’s carded scores in the 60s on nine occasions. He’s been in the top 15 in 11 of his 15 starts so far this season. In his career, 30 of his 57 events have been played on courses longer than 7,300 yards. In those rounds, he’s gained over 1.5 more strokes tee to green.

Over his past six tracked starts, Patrick Reed ($10,200) has been playing much better than he was to start off the year. He’s hitting an average of 1.3 more greens in regulation per round. Reed is also gaining over three times as many strokes tee to green as he was at the beginning of the season, per the RotoViz Splits App. By virtue of his win a couple of weeks back, he is in a solid position this week. He starts off just four strokes back in fourth place as we kick things off this week.

Abraham Ancer ($7,100) seems like a wild misprice this week. Of the golfers that are at 4-under or better, he is by far the cheapest. He is over $2,000 less expensive than any other golfer in his staggered scoring range. Ancer enjoyed a bit of a breakout this year as he steadied his game and made 15 of 21 worldwide cuts since January. During the first two playoff events, he carded six of his eight rounds in the 60s. In both of those starts, Ancer hit over 70% of his greens in regulation while finishing in 2nd and 28th place.

Cash Locks

So far this season, the totals for cash locks include 57 of 62 (91.9%) made cuts, 42 of 62 (68%) top-30 finishes, and 18 of 62 (29%) top-10 finishes. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Patrick Cantlay ($12,400) 
  • Abraham Ancer ($7,100)

Model Results and Ownership Projection - TOUR Championship

The Adjusted Power Ranking score takes the staggered scoring into account to get you a better feel for how the format affects an individual golfers chances.
NameDK$Raw Power RankingAdjusted Power RankingStaggered ScoringOwnership ProjectionsPowerRankingGroups
Justin Thomas15500-1.89-4.39-10.019.00-2 to -1.5
Patrick Cantlay12400-2.04-4.04-8.025.00-2.5 to -2
Brooks Koepka12200-1.50-3.25-7.026.00-1.5 to -1
Rory McIlroy10600-2.60-3.85-5.031.00-2.5 and Better
Patrick Reed10200-1.28-2.78-6.023.00-1.5 to -1
Jon Rahm9900-1.93-2.93-4.032.00-2 to -1.5
Webb Simpson9700-1.76-2.76-4.019.00-2 to -1.5
Xander Schauffele9500-1.12-2.12-4.027.00-1.5 to -1
Hideki Matsuyama9300-1.21-1.96-3.022.00-1.5 to -1
Matt Kuchar9100-0.69-1.69-4.011.00-1 to -0.5
Tony Finau8800-0.96-1.71-3.025.00-1 to -0.5
Rickie Fowler8600-1.07-1.57-2.017.00-1.5 to -1
Dustin Johnson8400-1.20-1.95-3.026.00-1.5 to -1
Adam Scott8200-1.47-2.22-3.032.00-1.5 to -1
Gary Woodland8000-0.80-1.55-3.018.00-1 to -0.5
Tommy Fleetwood7700-1.51-1.76-1.024.00-2 to -1.5
Paul Casey7500-1.53-2.03-2.035.00-2 to -1.5
Brandt Snedeker7300-1.21-1.71-2.021.00-1.5 to -1
Abraham Ancer7100-0.66-1.66-4.022.00-1 to -0.5
Justin Rose6900-1.39-1.89-2.024.00-1.5 to -1
Kevin Kisner6600-0.89-1.39-2.014.00-1 to -0.5
Marc Leishman6300-0.64-0.89-1.03.00-1 to -0.5
Corey Conners6100-0.59-0.84-1.010.00-1 to -0.5
Sungjae Im5900-0.72-0.97-1.015.00-1 to -0.5
Louis Oosthuizen5700-0.99-0.990.021.00-1 to -0.5
Bryson DeChambeau5500-0.54-0.540.012.00-1 to -0.5
Jason Kokrak5300-0.86-0.860.022.00-1 to -0.5
Lucas Glover5200-1.03-1.030.07.00-1.5 to -1
Chez Reavie5100-0.60-0.85-1.010.00-1 to -0.5
Charles Howell III5000-0.65-0.650.08.00-1 to -0.5

Image Credit: Adam Lacy/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.

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