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PGA DFS: Values and Pivots for the TOUR Championship on Yahoo!

The field is set at 30 for the TOUR Championship. The field will take on East Lake Golf Course as it has every year since 2004. The course is a par 70 that plays just over 7,300 yards. The greens are around 6,300 square feet and are bermudagrass. Golfers that were lucky enough to qualify for the TOUR Championship will make have to deal with 74 bunkers and six water hazards as they make their way around the track. Make sure you dive into the preview and trends article so you know which stats are important in limiting your player pool this week. 

Vegas Values

We’ve got a humdinger of a week on our hands for the TOUR Championship. The golfers are starting with staggered scoring before they even tee off this week. There’s no way around it, you’ll need the winner this week. Most of the field is frankly drawing dead in terms of their ability to win this week. You can refer to the table below to see how the power ranking shakes out1. The “Vegas Values” section is going to take on a bit of a different spin this week. I’m strictly looking at their price vs. their starting staggered score. 

Bryson DeChambeau ($35) is the anti-value of the week. He is starting off at even par which is ten strokes off the lead before he even pops a tee into the ground. Somehow, though, he’s the tenth highest salary. According to the Adjusted Power Ranking model for this week, DeChambeau ranks 30th out of 30. 

On the other hand, you should be smashing the Patrick Cantlay ($45) button like it’s your job this week. He has the second-best starting position but is fourth in Yahoo! salary. Cantlay also happens to have the second-best Adjusted Power Ranking score of the week. His raw score is between -2 and -2.5. That group, historically, has finished in the top five at a 22% clip. 

Price Pivots

Justin Thomas ($52) is coming off of a win and is rightfully the highest-priced golfer. Rickie Fowler ($25) is starting eight strokes back of JT but pops as one of the closest comps to Thomas’ current form. He won’t gain the same volume of strokes that Thomas does for a multitude of reasons, but when it comes to hitting greens in regulation, Fowler is far superior. He also hits more fairways and is longer off the tee. 

Brooks Koepka ($51) is the second most expensive golfer this week. His closest comp is Jason Kokrak ($20) who is at min price. We want a guy who can win and Kokrak — along with the other golfers starting at even-par — isn’t the answer in that department. However, if he can clear the guys who start at 3-under and worse, we could be looking at a very useful week from a guy at min price. When you consider the roster construction flexibility he affords you, it makes quite a bit of sense. During the 2019 campaign, Kokrak has played much better on courses above 7,300 yards. 

Model Results - Tour Championship (Yahoo!)

The Adjusted Power Ranking factors in the staggered scoring to give a better picture for how the players should be valued based on the new format.
NameY!Raw Power RankingAdjusted Power RankingStaggered Scoring
Justin Thomas52.0-1.89-4.39-10.0
Patrick Cantlay45.0-2.04-4.04-8.0
Brooks Koepka51.0-1.50-3.25-7.0
Rory McIlroy48.0-2.60-3.85-5.0
Patrick Reed30.0-1.28-2.78-6.0
Jon Rahm43.0-1.93-2.93-4.0
Webb Simpson36.0-1.76-2.76-4.0
Xander Schauffele39.0-1.12-2.12-4.0
Hideki Matsuyama23.0-1.21-1.96-3.0
Matt Kuchar25.0-0.69-1.69-4.0
Tony Finau32.0-0.96-1.71-3.0
Rickie Fowler25.0-1.07-1.57-2.0
Dustin Johnson44.0-1.20-1.95-3.0
Adam Scott27.0-1.47-2.22-3.0
Gary Woodland29.0-0.80-1.55-3.0
Tommy Fleetwood31.0-1.51-1.76-1.0
Paul Casey23.0-1.53-2.03-2.0
Brandt Snedeker20.0-1.21-1.71-2.0
Abraham Ancer24.0-0.66-1.66-4.0
Justin Rose41.0-1.39-1.89-2.0
Kevin Kisner20.0-0.89-1.39-2.0
Marc Leishman20.0-0.64-0.89-1.0
Corey Conners20.0-0.59-0.84-1.0
Sungjae Im20.0-0.72-0.97-1.0
Louis Oosthuizen20.0-0.99-0.990.0
Bryson DeChambeau35.0-0.54-0.540.0
Jason Kokrak20.0-0.86-0.860.0
Lucas Glover20.0-1.03-1.030.0
Chez Reavie20.0-0.60-0.85-1.0
Charles Howell III20.0-0.65-0.650.0
Image Credit: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rickie Fowler.

  1. with the staggered scoring factored in  (back)

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