If you’ve been jumping the queue to draft Dante Pettis in the sixth round this summer, this article may not be for you. Then again, maybe it’s exactly what you need.
Every year there are still some players getting a bit too much love while their cohorts with similar ranges of outcomes go at a discount. After all, as the Fantasy Douche explained years ago, it’s always better to get something for nothing.
Here’s a look at our best discount plays for 2019, starting with one slight amendment from earlier this year.
Discount Play: Robert Foster
This was the first “Why Buy” article back in early July, and while I’m still fully aboard the fade-Pettis train, Foster has done nothing this summer to build on the back half of his rookie season which saw him outproduce Pettis.
Nonetheless, let’s turn to the Range of Outcomes App to find an alternative.
Updated Discount Play: John Brown
While their prices have been converging all summer as everyone remembers that John Brown is good at football and Pettis is primarily good at returning punts, there’s still a three- to four-round discount to take advantage of.
The fact that Pettis is in line for that sweet second-year WR bump gives him the edge when looking at their respective range of outcomes, but Brown’s numbers are weighed down by a cut in targets once Baltimore went uber run-heavy with Lamar Jackson under center — 7.4 targets/game pre-Jackson and 4.3/game post.
Brown looks like the man in Buffalo this year and is a solid bet to post superior totals to Pettis.
Discount Play: Michael Gallup
Gallup has closed the gap since we told you to target Cowboys sophomore over the pricier Valdes-Scantling, but he still comes at a rebate.
Does it make me nervous that Shawn Siegele systematically addressed my many concerns with the Packers apparent No. 2 WR? Yes.
I’m still drafting Valdes-Scantling. I’m just trying to remember that some of the key similarities between Golladay and MVS – big, athletic, small school WRs in good NFL situations – are offset by a few key differences as it relates to the odds of a second-year explosion. I’m trying not to reach.
Do I think that the Valdes-Scantling, regardless of profile, still has more competition for targets than Gallup on top of the inferior draft pedigree? Also yes.
Discount Play: Royce Freeman
He’s got nowhere to go but up — the 1a to Phillip Lindsay with an excellent college profile and a path to RB1 numbers if things break right.
Discount Play: Sterling Shepard
Davis as an upside play makes a ton of sense — we’re trying to win the league, not finish fourth.
Still, the odds of a breakout are diminished in his third year. The Titans spent a second-round pick on A.J. Brown, an excellent prospect who had an early breakout age, an early declare, and 2,572 receiving yards over his final two seasons.
They also added Adam Humphries, who commanded 105 targets in Tampa Bay last year and was Siegele’s top pick for a fifth-year breakout.
Shepard is anything but a sexy play, but we have him tabbed for 17% more targets than Davis this year on a team that just lost Odell Beckham’s 10.5 targets/game.
Shepard doesn’t have the same ceiling, but his median outcomes are right on par.
Discount Play: Robert Woods
We used the Range of Outcomes App to find this arbitrage play on Hilton before Andrew Luck retired, and that discount is now officially gone.
Robert Woods remains a phenomenal value and is one of my priority fantasy targets, but at this point, it’s looking like the new discount Hilton is Hilton himself.
Discount Play: Nyheim Hines
Hines could be one of the few beneficiaries of Luck’s surprise retirement.
Curtis Patrick points out that the Colts RBs appear to be heavily dependant on game script, and without Luck leading the way in 2019, those ugly game scripts may lead to some beautiful lines from Hines.
2018 Colts backfield— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) August 30, 2019
In games the Colts won by 7 or more points:
Marlon Mack: 21 PPR/G (336 season)
Nyheim Hines: 7.3 PPR/G (117 season)
In games the Colts won by 6 or fewer points, or lost:
Marlon Mack: 8.6 PPR/G (139 season)
Nyheim Hines: 11.7 PPR/G (187 season) pic.twitter.com/gD6X3mrVQI
Even without that potential bump, the high-end of Hines’ outcomes is 0.5 PPG better than Cohen’s.
Discount Play: Tyler Boyd
Which of these WRs would you rather have in redraft going into 2019?
Presenting it that way may be slightly disingenuous considering Cooper was often ignored in Oakland before being traded to Dallas mid-season. But it’s still reasonable to call this something close to a coin flip, especially when we have reason to believe that the Bengals offense should be much better this year.
Be sure to take advantage of this 20-spot gap in ADP in the high-leverage rounds.
Mecole Hardman & Deebo Samuel
Discount Play: Terry McLaurin
I lumped these three rookies into a pile and picked the cheapest one who is also the likeliest to have the most opportunity in year one.
McLaurin is likely the best athlete of the trio and also boasts a killer group of comps.
On a roster bereft of any real receiving hope, expect McLaurin to become more involved as the season goes on.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Discount Plays: Stefon Diggs & Keenan Allen
Beckham is far from a fade this year, but there are also a few small flags to at least consider.
Our modeling shows that both Diggs and Allen offer a similar range of outcomes at a much more palatable price.
|Odell Beckham Jr.||9||5||72||0.4||-3||15.3||12.5||14.8||17.4|
If you don’t want to short one of the greatest WRs of the era late in the first round, I don’t blame you — the good news is, you can have all three.