Last year I found that while it may be difficult to project touchdowns year-over-year, touchdowns usually regress to the mean based on a wide receiver’s targets and receiving yards. Every year there are outliers who catch touchdowns at a higher or lower rate than one would expect based on their targets and yards in that season. Perception about a player’s abilitay to score touchdowns — and thus score fantasy football points — may be drastically skewed if their actual touchdowns don’t align with their expected number.
We’ve already explored the 5 Wide Receivers Primed to Score More in 2019: Positive Touchdown Regression – which includes RotoViz’s favorite breakout WR for 2019 and a player that I have greater than 20% exposure to on DRAFT Best Ball – and we also looked at the Fool’s Gold WRS (Positive Touchdown Regression Candidates Who Won’t Score More).
Just as the positive touchdown regression analysis from last year helped us identify Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Adam Thielen as WRS who will take a leap in the touchdown column, the negative touchdown regression analysis helped us realize Jarvis Landry (9 TDS in 2017; 4 TDS in 2018) was a touchdown fraud.
There are a bunch of big name WRs who make the list this year as players whose touchdown totals may negatively regress, with 11 of these WRS being drafted in the top-30 at the position per Fanball ADP.
Wide Receivers Who Scored More Touchdowns Compared to Expectation