The Fantasy Football Ghost serves up a new helping of FanDuel cash plays for Week 3!
Last week saw an abundant amount of both ups and downs and the players suggested in this column last week were not immune from either extreme. You had Tom Brady and Mark Andrews on one end of the spectrum with 3.16- and 3.48-times value, respectively. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara only managed a tepid 0.75-times value and John Brown, despite a solid outing, couldn’t find the endzone and only hit 1.70-times value. In totality, the four players fell a bit short of the 2.5-times value marker that determines if a week has been successful or not. So close, yet so far, much like the expectations many of us had for Week Two as a whole. Week Three appears to have a significant number of potential values available to us, so let’s dive right in without any further delay.
First though, remember that in order to measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then obtain the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5-times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, the week will be considered a success, if I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
We also want to encourage our readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 3
Dak Prescott – $8,400
Admittedly, I’m playing with fire a bit here by taking the quarterback opposing the Dolphins in two straight weeks, but given Miami’s clear plan to pack it up and write this season off, the target is simply too tantalizing to pass up. The Dolphins are averaging four passing touchdowns allowed per game thus far through two weeks, the most allowed in the league. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have the second-highest average passing touchdowns per game over that span with 3.5 thrown per game.
The Dolphins are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game with 316.5 allowed as opposed to Dallas who has the third-most passing yards per game with 333.0 yards. Prescott’s Game Level Similarity Projection (GLSP) foresees a 22.5 fantasy point performance for him, positioning him for a 2.68-times value play. However, on Monday, Miami just traded away 2018 first-round pick and one of the leaders of their secondary, Minkah Fitzpatrick. A Fitzpatrick-less secondary will make likely have Prescott licking his chops all day long.
Christian McCaffrey – $8,900
This is another week where you almost have to pay up in FanDuel cash lineups for running back production. Despite an incredibly disappointing performance last week, Christian McCaffrey well-positioned to rebound against Arizona. The Cardinals are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards through two games and, despite only gaining 37 rushing yards in a dismal performance against Tampa Bay, McCaffrey is still the seventh-leading rusher in the league thus far.
Without even factoring in statistics, if Cam Newton sits out as speculated, McCaffrey’s role will become even more the focal point of the Panthers’ offense. The GLSP tool projects McCaffrey’s average score to be 24 points in weekend while it also finds that it is 43 percent likely that he could eclipse the 25-point mark, the running back most likely to achieve that mark of all projected. Of the 101 running backs projected, McCaffrey is the only player to surpass a 30% likelihood of scoring more than 25 points, a full 17% more likely than the second-place running back, Ezekiel Elliott.
Kenny Golladay – $7,000
Kenny Golladay is, strangely enough, a value this week despite a prime matchup versus Philadelphia. The Eagles have allowed an average of 340 passing yards thus far this season, the second-most in the NFL, while the Lions have averaged 303 passing yards over that time, ranking them as the sixth-highest passing offense in the league. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns through this short season with an average of 3.0 allowed per game and Detroit is tied for the third-most passing touchdowns thrown with 2.5 touchdowns completed over that same time.
A quick look over at the NFL Stats Explorer shows that the Eagles are ripe-pickings for opposing wide receivers with the sixth-worst PPR rank against the position over the past five games, the third-worst Expected Points (EP), the third-most targets allowed, the third-most receptions allowed, the sixth-most receiving yards allowed, and the third-most air yards allowed. Sign me up for some Golladay FanDuel cash line ups on Sunday!
Greg Olsen – $6,100
I don’t usually suggest two players from an underdog team, especially one that will be without their starting quarterback, however as I described with Christian McCaffrey earlier in this piece, Carolina has several things going for them, specifically the tight end match up with opponent Arizona. The Cardinals have given up an average of 136 receiving yards to the tight end position since the start of the season, far and away the most yards allowed in the league.
Opponents have quickly identified this weakness, and have targeted TEs an average of 11.5 times per game with an average of 8.5 completions and 1.5 receiving touchdowns, all three statistics ranking as the most in the league. Last week Greg Olsen posted his best receiving performance since December 17, 2017 with a six catch, 110-yard performance against Tampa Bay. Olsen is also the second-leading tight end in terms of air yards with 176 yards. This late-career resurgence might be just beginning, a matchup against the Cardinals is just what’s prescribed to make sure it continues, for now, and helps our FanDuel cash lineups.
The values this week are a bit top-heavy in terms of price, but values at wide receiver and tight end make it possible to add each of the players mentioned into a lineup. Through two weeks it is a bit tough to be overly accurate as there aren’t trends per se, just a point after Week 1 and a line after Week 2. Going forward we might see some actual trends develop! As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!