Shawn Siegele breaks down the most explosive wide receiver fantasy performances of Week 2, including a heroic effort from Demarcus Robinson.
Blair Andrews does a great job explaining expected points and fantasy points over expectation in the Week 1 EP Report. These metrics translate volume and efficiency directly into fantasy points by looking at the expected results from opportunities that occur at a specific down, distance, and field position.
It’s fun to put the biggest games of the week under the microscope, as they frequently come from a combination of increased opportunity and spectacular efficiency. Elite efficiency is always interesting to track because it’s unsustainable and yet a good sign when it comes to breakouts and increased usage.
How Did Week 2 Stack Up?
After one of the most scintillating opening weeks in memory. The status quo tried to reassert itself in Week 2. Eleven players reached double-digits in FPOE a week ago. Only four managed the trick this week.
|PLAYER||PPR||Expected Points||Fantasy Points Over Expectation||Receptions||Targets||Yards|
|Steven Sims Jr.||2.9||1.6||-0.3||1||1||3|
While I’ve selected those four to display above, you can scroll through the entire list, search for any Week 2 performance, or hop over to the RotoViz Screener for even more detail.
Two weeks and two Chiefs have posted a game with 25 fantasy points over expectation. This comes as no surprise with Patrick Mahomes easily leading the NFL in passing FPOE a year ago. His 2019 theatrics currently give him a slim edge on Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson.
It’s perhaps a little more of a surprise when you consider that Tyreek Hill, for all his inhuman speed, never hit that level in 2018 and only twice crested 20.1
Even with a quarterback like Mahomes at the helm, it’s still possible to underperform your volume, as Hill did during a frustrating stretch from Week 13 to Week 16 last season. In this light, Robinson’s performance is all the more remarkable.
Robinson broke wide open behind the defense on his 44-yard TD in the first quarter. It was the quintessential example of Andy Reid scheming a player open and taking advantage of Mahomes’ almost handoff-like ability on deep passes. In a sharp contrast, the 39-yard score before the half came with a defender draped all over him. Robinson has now caught all four of his deep targets in 2019.
Robinson hauled in three of seven deep targets a year ago and averaged 11.7 air yards per target. You can peruse all of these stats in the NFL Stat Explorer, where you can also see that Robinson crested 20 air yards per target four times a season ago.
Robinson’s Week 2 usage profile is not unique to his history with the Chiefs, nor is it something we should expect every week. Regardless, his ability to defeat single coverage both through separation and through contested catches should make him a Mahomes favorite while Hill is out. If he can earn the snap share and target volume required.
Robinson came to the Chiefs with an intriguing-but-checkered collegiate resume. He accounted for almost 40% of the receiving production2 during his sophomore season at Florida, hinting at more upside than Chris Conley, an athletically gifted player who has always struggled to translate that into production.3 For believers like the must-read Devin McIntyre, it was frustrating when Robinson earned fewer snaps than Conley during Watkins’ absence a year ago.
Chiefs WR Snap Percentage – 2018
After the selection of Mecole Hardman with the 56th pick in this year’s draft, it would be fair to assume Robinson might struggle for looks again. For at least one week, there was plenty to go around. The rookie scored 16 points of his own against the Raiders, and it would have been much more if his 72-yard TD reception hadn’t been called back.
Marquise Goodwin, Chris Godwin, and Devin Smith
Hopefully Goodwin’s 77 yards and a score on three targets will encourage more usage in a 49ers offense that has been the Deebo Samuel show in the early going. Goodwin is now the third member of our bounceback WR group to break out, although his big game lacks the staying power of the other two.
Godwin was a featured member of our third-year breakout WRs. I loved him in a vacuum but was skeptical at ADP due to the wealth of intriguing targets in Tampa Bay. Through two weeks, Mike Evans and O.J. Howard owners are the ones reaching for the escape hatch.
This isn’t a bad time to buy Evans or Howard, but you have to be concerned. If I’m Howard, the No. 1 thing I’m thinking right now is “Bruce Arians can coach a lot better than he’s coached through two weeks. He knows it. I expect him to do better.”
Devin Smith is back in the NFL. The Giants caught a lot of justified grief for their receiver depth chart heading into a Week 2 tilt with the Cowboys, but Dallas also doesn’t sport much depth behind Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. A week after Cooper and Gallup both flashed in this area, Smith posted 11.8 FPOE on three targets.
The Kellen Moore offense has been a huge success through two weeks with Prescott posting big numbers and nearly matching Mahomes in efficiency.
How Did the Week 1 Heroes Perform?
It was not a surprise to see DeSean Jackson and Phillip Dorsett disappear this week, although Jackson was lost to an injury bug that swept through the Eagles WR corps on Sunday night. By contrast, several of the Week 1 heroes backed up their performances.
This is why selling efficiency isn’t straightforward. Following their electric 2019 debuts, D.J. Chark, Terry McLaurin, and Marquise Brown all earned volume bumps worth at least 8.0 fantasy points this week. Even with McLaurin and Brown underperforming their volume, they scored at the WR1 level again.
Last week I mentioned that Brown would be in contention for the 1.01 if rookie drafts occurred today, and he offered more confirmation with a game-sealing 41-yard reception on 3rd-and-11 during Baltimore’s final drive. Lamar Jackson dropped the sideline throw into an impossible window. In another six weeks, the Ravens offense could rival Kansas City for the best in the NFL.
Last week, Curtis Patrick offered a detailed breakdown explaining why Ross was the new Brandin Cooks. We added him to our FFPC Main Event squad, and his late TD gives us a chance to move to 2-0 if things break just right this evening. Make sure you give it a read if you haven’t already.
Good luck tonight, everyone.