Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 15 key stats to help you crush your Week 8 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 8
Reported lines are current as of October 23, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/24 8:20 ET||At Minnesota||-16||Washington||42|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Detroit||-7||NY Giants||49.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Tennessee||-2.5||Tampa Bay||45.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Chicago||-4||LA Chargers||40.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||Seattle||-6.5||At Atlanta||51|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Jacksonville||-6||NY Jets||41.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-1.5||Philadelphia||43.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||LA Rams|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-9.5||Arizona||48|
|10/27 4:25 ET||At Houston||-6.5||Oakland||51.5|
|10/27 4:05 ET||At San Francisco||-5.5||Carolina||41.5|
|10/27 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-6||Denver||43.5|
|10/27 4:25 ET||At New England||-13||Cleveland||46|
|10/27 8:20 ET||Green Bay||-4.5||At Kansas City||47.5|
|10/28 8:15 ET||At Pittsburgh||-14.5||Miami||43|
WAS @ MIN: Olabisi Johnson had a 24% target market share last week
IMPLIED: MIN 29, WAS 13 — TOTAL: 42
With Adam Thielen exiting Minnesota’s Week 7 contest early, Johnson stepped in and was used just as often as Thielen would’ve been. Johnson tied Stefon Diggs for the team lead with eight targets last week (24% target market share). From Weeks 1-6, Johnson played 109 snaps and was targeted on 8.3% of his snaps; for comparison, Thielen is targeted on 11.3% of his snaps and Diggs is targeted on 12.2% of his.
All of this is to say: Johnson will be heavily involved on Thursday night.
NYG @ DET: Saquon Barkley handled 40% of NYG’s opportunity last week
IMPLIED: DET 28.25, NYG 21.25 — TOTAL: 49.5
Barkley was not limited in any way upon returning from his high ankle sprain. From Weeks 1-2, a fully healthy Barkley handled 33% of New York’s offensive opportunities. In Week 7, Barkley gobbled up 40% of the team’s opportunities. He is going to roast Detroit’s defense and will be a Week 8 DFS stud. Detroit has given up the most fantasy points to enemy RBs over the last five regular-season games.
TB @ TEN: The Bucs have given up the most points to WRs
IMPLIED: TEN 24, TB 21.5 — TOTAL: 45.5
Over the last five regular-season games, Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points to enemy WRs, including massive games to Sterling Shepard (9-7-100-1), Robert Woods (15-13-164-0), and Michael Thomas (13-11-182-2). This could be a second big game in a row for Corey Davis,2 but don’t forget about rookie A.J. Brown, who will be lower owned in Week 8 DFS but has also flashed big games.
LAC @ CHI: Austin Ekeler has more expected points than Melvin Gordon since Gordon’s return
IMPLIED: CHI 22.25, LAC 18.25 — TOTAL: 40.5
Even since Gordon’s return, Ekeler has been — by far — the better fantasy option. Gordon has 47 expected points (EP) since returning three weeks ago, compared to 51.4 for Ekeler. Gordon also has -20.5 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) compared to +4.2 for Ekeler. The Chargers will likely continue to pound Gordon, but Ekeler remains the better fantasy option — and the Week 8 game script should favor Ekeler as the receiving back.
SEA @ ATL: The Falcons are giving up over 31 PPG to opposing QBs
IMPLIED: SEA 28.75, ATL 22.25 — TOTAL: 51
It’s a major bounceback week for Russell Wilson going up against the Falcons, who have been obliterated by enemy QBs this season. Over the last 5 games, the Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, giving up an average line of 314 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 66% completion rate en route to over 31 fantasy PPG allowed. They also gave up 32 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 47 rushing yards to Deshaun Watson, and we know Wilson can scoop up fantasy points on the ground, too.
NYJ @ JAX: Leonard Fournette leads the league in attempts but has just one TD
IMPLIED: JAX 23.75, NYJ 17.75 — TOTAL: 41.5
Fournette is pacing all RBs with 144 rushing attempts this year, but he has just one TD to show for it. There are 13 total RBs who have at least 100 rushing attempts this season, and only Fournette and Le’Veon Bell have just one rushing TD. Fournette is due for positive regression as a 6-point home favorite against the stalling Jets.
PHI @ BUF: Sneaky shootout potential in Buffalo?
IMPLIED: BUF 22.5, PHI 21 — TOTAL: 43.5
This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate (43.5), but could it have sneaky shootout potential? Per our Pace App, the Bills (26.9) and Eagles (26.8) are both among the fastest in the league in terms of seconds per play in neutral game script scenarios.3 We can expect these two teams to produce 135 total snaps — making it (tied for) the third-highest projected snap count game of the week.
CIN @ LAR (In London): Top matchup for Rams RBs Todd Gurley and Darrell Henderson
IMPLIED: LAR 30.75, CIN 17.75 — TOTAL: 48.5
In Week 7, Gurley handled 61% of Los Angeles’ snaps and tallied 19 total opportunities (26% of the team’s opportunities). Henderson handled 34% of the snaps and saw 12 opportunities (16%). It could be a strong week for both Gurley and Henderson (at their respective price points) against the Bengals, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to enemy RBs over the last 5 weeks. According to our Strength of Schedule app, this is the easiest matchup Los Angeles’ RBs will face all season:
ARZ @ NO: The Cardinals give up the fifth-most FPOE to enemy QBs
IMPLIED: NO 28.75, ARZ 19.25 — TOTAL: 48
It remains to be seen whether Drew Brees or Teddy Bridgewater end up under center for the Saints in Week 8, but New Orleans’ starting QB will be fantasy-viable for Week 8 DFS either way. The Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fifth-most FPOE to opposing QBs over the last 5 games. QBs have an average NFL QB rating of 119.7 against them in that span (second-best) while completing 74% of their passes (most).
OAK @ HOU: DeAndre Hopkins has just 1 TD on his last 41 targets
IMPLIED: HOU 29, OAK 22.5 — TOTAL: 51.5
Per the RotoViz Screener, since Week 2, Hopkins ranks third among WRs 41 targets. However, he has just one TD on those 41 targets. All other WRs that have at least 30 targets since Week 2 have at least two TDs, save for Tyler Boyd (one TD on 37 targets). Hopkins is in a get-right spot this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed nine TDs to opposing receivers over their last five games while allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and 2nd-most FPOE.
CAR @ SF: Christian McCaffrey faces his toughest matchup to date
IMPLIED: SF 23.5, CAR 18 — TOTAL: 41.5
McCaffrey rolls into Week 8 as a 5.5-point road underdog against the stingiest run defense in the NFL. The 49ers have given up the fewest fantasy points and fewest FPOE to opposing RBs over the last five weeks. RB1s have averaged just 13 attempts and 53 yards against San Francisco in that span with 0 touchdowns, adding just 1.8 receptions and nine yards (0 TDs) through the air, too.
DEN @ IND: Jacoby Brissett has been a fantasy QB1 in 3 of his last 4
IMPLIED: IND 24.75, DEN 18.75 — TOTAL: 43.5
Brissett faces a stiff test against a Denver defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last five weeks, but he also comes into the contest hot, performing as a fantasy QB1 in three of his last four contests. He’s averaging 23.3 expected PPG in that span, third-best among all QBs since Week 3.
CLV @ NE: Baker Mayfield ranks last in FPOE
IMPLIED: NE 29.5, CLV 16.5 — TOTAL: 46
Mayfield has scored -22.5 FPOE this season, tied with Josh Rosen for worst among QBs. Mayfield’s passing FPOE is -25.2, giving him sole possession of last place in that category. This week he faces the Patriots defense, which has given up the fewest fantasy points and FPOE to opposing QBs this year. He’s not playable in Week 8 DFS.
GB @ KC: Aaron Rodgers has the most expected points over the last month
IMPLIED: GB 26, KC 21.5 — TOTAL: 47.5
Rodgers has 96.6 expected points since Week 4, tops among all QBs. His FPOE of 16.1 is sixth-best among all QBs in that span. This week he draws a Chiefs defense that ranks bottom-10 in fantasy points given up and bottom-three in expected fantasy points to opposing QBs over the last five weeks.
MIA @ PIT: This Dolphins have given up the most FPOE to RBs
IMPLIED: PIT 28.75, MIA 14.25 — TOTAL: 43
Over the last five weeks, no team has allowed more FPOE to opposing RBs than the Dolphins. They have given up the 2nd-most rushing attempts (27.4 per game), second-most rushing yards (129.2), third-most YPC (4.7), and 10th-most receiving yards (53.2) per game to opposing RBs in that span. Conner has scored at least 26.5 fantasy points in two of his last three and is a 14.5-point home favorite against the lackluster Dolphins in Week 8.