Jack Miller has done an excellent job this season using the Strength of Schedule Streaming tool to help you buy players before they benefited from easier schedules. In this companion piece, Shawn Siegele suggests a few sell options to boost your lineup for the fantasy football playoffs.
It’s Always Hard to Sell – Let’s Make It A Little Easier
I have a particular fondness for the SoS Streamer as it was a big part of the Fantasy Douche’s original vision for the site and a tool he used to devastating effect in his own leagues. He called it the Buy Low Machine, and Jack has helped readers buy low on players all year.
HOW TO SELL
One obvious way to buy or sell is to use our advanced schedule metrics to simply buy players with easy upcoming schedules and sell players with poor schedules. I certainly recommend that. You can also try to find players who are moving from easy to neutral (sell) or hard to neutral (buy). It can be easy to forget that the schedule to this point has played a role in a player’s scoring and thus current trade value.
Last week I suggested selling Amari Cooper and buying a WR who went out and immediately set a new career high in targets. I also discussed a WR with one more juicy matchup before the schedule turns nasty. He used that matchup to post a monster performance and raise his trade value even higher. In my look at the FPOE leaderboard, I break down the role schedule has played in his 2019 fireworks.
Today we’ll look at three big name players you can sell to balance your lineup or improve your playoff matchups.
Henry’s trade value is at a high after scoring 33 points against Kansas City. The Titans’ RB schedule has been slightly worse than average over their first 10 contests, but it’s been split equally between top-16 and bottom-16 rush defenses. Henry has absolutely annihilated the weaker opponents, scoring 10 points more per game in those contests.
That’s a worrying trend as Tennessee’s schedule takes a turn for the worse.
Running Back Schedule Strength – Week 12-16
The Titans have the No. 30 schedule over the final five weeks, including their second-most difficult matchup of the season during fantasy title week.
Hill is expected to recover from his hamstring injury and be ready after the Week 12 bye. This makes him a prime target for championship rosters. In the five full games Hill has played, he’s averaged 23 PPG. When healthy, the Chiefs star has been one of the five most valuable players in all of fantasy.
Unfortunately, the schedule may not cooperate. Kansas City’s WRs enjoyed the sixth-easiest schedule during Hill’s healthy window. They also get a plum matchup with the Dolphins after the bye, but their playoff schedule ranks No. 31.
If you receive offers for Hill this week, you may want to engage in those discussions. Moving Hill allows you to skip the bye, eliminate the re-aggravation risk, and avoid the brutal playoff slate.
Julian Edelman/Mohamed Sanu
Both of the passing focal points for the Patriots have enjoyed plus matchups to this point. New England’s schedule ranked No. 8 over the first 11 weeks.
Sanu faced one of the 10 easiest schedules during his tenure with the Falcons, and he used a mildly positive Week 9 matchup against the Ravens to go off for 24 points in his second game after the trade.
This changes in a big way over the final five weeks, starting this weekend with a brutal game against the Cowboys.
Sanu has been held below 5.0 points in both of his negative matchups since joining the Patriots, although some of that is adjusting to a new offense. It might be easier to find a taker for him, since you’d be using him more as a throw-in to bridge value gaps in a bigger trade. A potential blowup game against the Bengals during the fantasy semis makes him a perfect target for owners seeking matchup-based WR3 plays.
I’m constantly impressed at the depth and breadth of the information in tools built by Mike Beers, Dave Caban, and Anthony Shook. If you enjoyed some of the visualizations used in this piece, make sure to check out the NFL Stat Explorer, the NFL Pace app, the Best Ball Win Rates tool, the Game Splits app, the RotoViz Screener, and the Weekly Stats tool.