With three straight dominating weeks of FanDuel NFL Cash Plays, The Fantasy Football Ghost is on fire heading into Week 11!
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we achieved that elusive hat trick of three straight winning weeks where the players I highlighted surpassed 2.5 times value! In Week 10 we again blew by that mark with an average performance of 2.76 times value for the collection of Jameis Winston (2.57 times value), Derrick Henry (an astounding 4.59 times value!), Mike Evans (an underwhelming 1.19 times value), and Greg Olsen (2.71 times value). This also marks the second week that our pay up play, which was Evans last week, performed well below expectations. However, even his similarly valued teammate, Chris Godwin, performed well below expectations, despite one of the better opportunities they will both see for the remainder of this season. That said, Henry’s performance was a surprise, even to me as I could hardly have predicted that not only would he match the two-touchdown performance he posted the week prior, but he also ran for nearly as many yards as his top two performances prior to Week 10 combined! Let’s see if I can single out another top performer for us in Week 11!
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5 times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, I will consider the week a success. If I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
You can find much of the data presented in this piece in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 11
Quarterback: Kyle Allen ($7,200)
Pretty high on the list of things I didn’t expect at the start of this season was me recommending Kyle Allen as a FanDuel cash play in Week 11. However, the stars have aligned due to several high-profile injuries to the quarterback position, the most important, at least in terms of this play, the season-ending foot injury Cam Newton suffered in Week 2. Allen has filled in, well, adequately, averaging 228 passing yards per game and 1.42 passing touchdowns per game.
Those averages should move in a positive direction this Sunday as he faces an Atlanta defense that is allowing the league’s top quarterback rating to opposing quarterbacks over the past five games with an average rating of 121.5. The Falcons have surrendered an average of 304 passing yards per game over that span, the fourth-most in the league. Additionally, a full 72% of passes thrown by quarterbacks have been completed, the most of any defense. This has resulted in Atlanta allowing the fourth-most PPR points to the position with an average of 28.2 points scored per game. To hit our 2.5 times value marker, Allen need only score 18 points in this premier match up, a completely attainable goal given his matchup. He is a prime candidate to exceed that threshold.
Running Back: Brian Hill ($5,900)
The flip side of the prior matchup brings us our running back value for Week 11 with a likely heavy load for Atlanta’s Brian Hill. With the injury to starting running back Devonta Freeman, Hill will step into a starting role against a Carolina defense that has just enough holes to make his $5,900 salary an amazing value.
The Panthers have allowed an average of 118.6 rushing yards to opposing running backs over the past five games, ranking them as the fifth-most exploitable defense in the league. This has played heavily into Carolina’s second-most PPR point allowed to the position over that span with an average of 34.4 points surrendered per game. That amount is an average of 11.2 Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE), the most in the NFL. Even if Hill was projected to score zero points, which he isn’t just, to be clear, if he simply scored those 11.2 points over that projection, he would already be 1.9 times value just from that production alone! Hill is one of the best pure values on this slate given price, matchup, and opportunity.
Wide Receiver: Courtland Sutton ($6,600)
Courtland Sutton and the Broncos have endured a much lower level of success than many pundits projected that they would be enjoying at this point. Joe Flacco was underwhelming as a starter before being placed on injured reserve, and Sutton’s former running partner, Emmanuel Sanders, was traded to San Francisco late last month, leaving Sutton as Denver’s primary weapon in the passing game. This increased opportunity, and responsibility, has yet to yield much in the way of fantasy production with an 8.7-point performance against the Colts and a 14.8-point performance against the Browns. Come Sunday, however, those totals are primed to be eclipsed when the Broncos face the Vikings. Over the past five games, Minnesota has allowed an average of 15.6 receptions to opposing wide receivers, the second-most in the NFL.
It doesn’t stop there though: the Vikings have allowed an average of 204.2 receiving yards per game to the position, the fourth-most in the league, and the fifth-most targets per game. This has resulted in opposing wide receivers accumulating an average of 47.2 fantasy points per game, the second-most in the NFL. So, much points to an excellent opportunity for Sutton, especially at a sub-$7,000 price tag.
Tight End: Ross Dwelley ($4,900)
You’d be forgiven for asking, “Who?” if you missed the Monday Night Football game against Seattle in Week 10. If you missed that game, well, it was one of the better games of the season with several swings in momentum. Standing in for George Kittle, relative unknown Ross Dwelley was targeted seven times in San Francisco’s first loss of the season. With Kittle out again this week, Dwelley will again get an opportunity to step up in a big way against one of the most-susceptible defenses in the league versus opposing tight ends in the Cardinals. Just pull up Dwelley’s Matchup Analysis tab in the NFL Stat Explorer and you will be greeted with a sea of straight green at the bottom of the page.
Arizona ranks no lower than eighth in any of the following statistics: Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE)(No. 1), PPR Rank (No. 2), Receiving Yards Allowed (No. 3), Air Yards Allowed (No. 3), Receptions Allowed (No. 4), Yards After Contact (YAC) Allowed (No. 4), Targets Allowed (No. 5), Expected Points Allowed (No. 7), and Yards Per Reception Allowed (No. 8).
I don’t feel I need to justify this selection much more beyond that laundry list, but I’ll leave you with one final selling point. At Dwelley’s $4,900 price tag he need only score 12.25 points to surpass our target of 2.5 times value, yet over the past five games, tight ends have averaged 14.7 points against Arizona. If he could simply perform at that average, it would make his performance 3.2 times the value of his price.
With no players over $7,200 and one that is even below $6,000, you would be correct in assuming value is the theme of the week. Despite their low price tags, these four players could, collectively, catapult us even past the rarefied air of three times average value on the week. Can we make it four straight successful weeks? I have faith, I hope you do as well! As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have!