While you were filling up on turkey and stuffing, The Fantasy Football Ghost was digging deep for FanDuel cash plays for Week 13, let’s see what he found!
Well, Week 12 went nothing like I had hoped or expected. With an average multiplier across the four players I recommended of just 1.21, it was, by far, one of the worst weeks we’ve encountered this season. Literally nothing went right, not one player hit the 2.5 threshold that’s been set for this series and only Michael Thomas even surpassed two times value. Yeah, that’s pretty bad. Nonetheless, keeping with the theme of the week, I’m thankful that we’ve been able to experience the amount of success we’ve seen thus far this season. While we are past the bye weeks, we still will see a smaller slate than a non-bye week due to the games scheduled for Thanksgiving Day. Furthermore, I’m thankful for all the readers that make sure to read this column every week — you are all awesome! Let’s do some damage to some turkey this week, as well as to some FanDuel cash games in Week 13!
To measure the success of the players I recommend to our RotoViz readers, I will review the players I recommended the prior week, determining their value multiplier. I will then calculate the average multiplier across the recommended players to give me a barometer of success for that week. My stated goal is to produce an average greater than 2.5 times value. If I can manage to surpass that goal, I will consider the week a success. If I fall short of that goal, obviously, the week would be considered unsuccessful.
You can find much of the data presented in this piece in the RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer and Game Level Similarity Projections. I also want to encourage readers to check out the RotoViz NFL Lineup Optimizer so that everyone can squeeze the most value out of their lineups each week.
FanDuel NFL Cash Plays for Week 13
Quarterback: Nick Foles ($7,500)
Despite selecting Tampa Bay’s opposing quarterback last week without much success, Nick Foles is well-positioned to significantly outperform his price tag. Foles will face a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the league’s second-most PPR points to the quarterback position. Furthermore, over the past five games, Tampa Bay has the most expected points (EP) allowed in the NFL with an average of 24.4 points expected to be surrendered per game to the quarterback position due primarily to the fact that they gave up 43 points to Russell Wilson and then surrendered another 30 points to Kyler Murray a week later.
In fact, they have allowed less than 21 points in only one game over that span. Opposing quarterbacks have pounded the Buccaneers through the air, attempting the second-most pass attempts in the league and racking up the seventh-most passing yards against their defense. Even a 21 point score, as all but one opponent has managed, would put us firmly over the 2.5-times multiplier we are seeking each week.
Running Back: Josh Jacobs ($7,700)
Josh Jacobs has been on a bit of a slide throughout the month of November, beginning the month hot with a 24 point performance then slipping to 17.6, then 11.9 and then posting a 4.1-point performance last week against the Jets in a game he was pulled from early. Luckily for Jacobs, Sunday begins a new month and his opponent, Kansas City, is one of the best matchups for opposing running backs in all the NFL. The Game Level Similarity Projection tool pegs Jacobs’ likelihood of surpassing 2.5 times value at roughly 40%, one of the better values on the entire slate. This likelihood is tied closely to the fact that Kansas City has allowed an average of 36.3 points to opposing running backs over the past five games, the most points surrendered to the position of any defense in the league. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 104 rushing yards per game, the tenth-most in the league, as well as an average of 90.6 receiving yards per game, the most allowed of any defense in the NFL. Jacobs could be in for a long and productive day come Sunday.
Wide Receiver: D.J. Chark ($6,900)
The selection of D.J. Chark is the play this week for a couple of reasons. First, the ability to pair him with Nick Foles will allow us to double up on any points we get. Second, Chark is facing a Tampa Bay defense that has been battered all season. In Chark, we have a player priced very competitively with a lion’s share of his team’s targets and production. This could pay amazing dividends as the Buccaneers are allowing the league’s most targets to the wide receiver position over the past five games, as well as the league’s most receptions. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has surrendered the second-most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing wide receivers with an average of 208.8 yards allowed per game. In order to surpass 2.5 times value, Chark need only hit 17.25 points, a mark surpassed by a wide receiver in each of the past four games against the Bucs.
Tight End: Gerald Everett ($6,300)
The Rams offense in 2019 has been a mere shell of itself from just a year prior. However, one bright spot has emerged from this disappointing season, tight end Gerald Everett. Everett has already eclipsed his production from each of the prior two seasons with another five games left in the regular season. He currently has the second-most receptions and touchdowns on the team and will now face off against an Arizona team that has been very friendly to opposing tight ends.
The Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points in the league to the tight end position over the past five games. They have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the eighth-most receptions. Perhaps most important though is the face that over that span, tight ends have scored an average of one touchdown per game. Look for Everett to build on his career year against a clearly exploitable opponent.
While Week 12 was disappointing, Week 13 usually has a great vibe to it with the holiday and an end to bye weeks. I hope all of you enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday if you live in the United States, for all our international readers those well wishes also extend to you, just with a bit less turkey. As always, good luck to everyone, and feel free to both reach out to me and follow me on Twitter at @TheFFGhost. I’ll do my best to answer any and all questions you may have.