Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 16 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 16
Reported lines are current as of December 19, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|12/21 8:15 ET||At San Francisco||-6.5||LA Rams||45|
|12/21 4:30 ET||At New England||-6.5||Buffalo||38.5|
|12/21 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-1||Houston||53|
|12/22 4:05 ET||At Denver||-6.5||Detroit||37.5|
|12/22 4:05 ET||At LA Chargers||-6.5||Oakland||47|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-6.5||Jacksonville||46|
|12/22 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-1||At Tennessee||51|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Washington||-3||NY Giants||42|
|12/22 1:00 ET||Pittsburgh||-3||At NY Jets||38.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Miami||-3||Cincinnati||45.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||At Indianapolis||-6.5||Carolina||46.5|
|12/22 1:00 ET||Baltimore||-7||At Cleveland||49|
|12/22 4:25 ET||Dallas||-1||At Philadelphia||47.5|
|12/22 4:25 ET||At Seattle||-9.5||Arizona||48.5|
|12/22 8:20 ET||Kansas City||-4||At Chicago||45|
|12/23 8:15 ET||At Minnesota||-4.5||Green Bay||46.5|
LAR @ SF: This will be the fastest-paced game of Week 16 for DFS
IMPLIED: SF 25.75, LAR 19.25 — TOTAL: 45
According to our NFL Pace Tool, this game should have the fastest seconds per snap of all matchups this weekend,2 with a snap exited every 26.5 seconds.
BUF @ NE: The Bills have the lowest (or second-lowest) implied total on the slate
IMPLIED: NE 22.5, BUF 16 — TOTAL: 38.5
With an implied team total of 16, of 15 in some places (as in our NFL Stat Explorer), the Bills have the lowest projected points on the slate. It’s a week to fade Josh Allen.
HOU @ TB: Breshad Perriman has 17 targets in his last 3 games
IMPLIED: TB 27, HOU 26 — TOTAL: 53
And in Week 16, he’ll be the lead WR with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out. Perriman has at least 70 yards in all three games, at least one TD in two of the games, and four TDs total in this span. Perriman is a legitimate Week 16 DFS option.
DET @ DEN: The Broncos have allowed the 5th-most FPOE to WRs
IMPLIED: DEN 22, DET 15.5 — TOTAL: 37.5
Over their last five games, the Broncos have allowed the fifth-most FPOE3 to opposing WRs. Kenny Golladay busted last week with three catches for 44 yards, but he did garner a respectable seven targets. He’s not a bad contrarian play this week, though I’d stay far away in cash games with the Lions at just 15.5 projected points.
OAK @ LAC: The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most points to RBs
IMPLIED: LAC 26.75, OAK 20.25 — TOTAL: 47
With Josh Jacobs out for Week 16, DeAndre Washington becomes Oakland’s lead back and an immediately interesting salary-saving option in Week 16 DFS. The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points and ninth-most expected points to opposing RBs over their last five games.
JAX @ ATL: Julio Jones saw 51% of Atlanta’s targets last week
IMPLIED: ATL 26.25, JAX 19.75 — TOTAL: 46
With Calvin Ridley sidelined, it’s the Julio show down the stretch. He saw an absurd 51% of Atlanta’s targets last week. The Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most FPOE to enemy WRs over their last five games.
NO @ TEN: The Saints have allowed the third-most expected points to QBs
IMPLIED: NO 26, TEN 25 — TOTAL: 51
Over their last five games, New Orleans has allowed the third-most expected points to opposing QBs. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, has been a fantasy QB1 in five of his last six games.
NYG @ WAS: This is the easiest matchup Saquon Barkley will have all season
IMPLIED: WAS 22.5, NYG 19.5 — TOTAL: 42
According to our Strength-of-Schedule Streaming app, this is the easiest matchup Saquon Barkley will have all season — and it comes one week after he finally lit up the fantasy scoreboard. He’s getting hot at the end, but you can trust him in Week 16 DFS.
PIT @ NYJ: The Steelers’ top 2 WRs see the exact same target volume
IMPLIED: PIT 20.75, NYJ 17.75 — TOTAL: 38.5
Over the last month, Diontae Johnson and James Washington have each handled 27% of Pittsburgh’s targets. Choosing the right one is never easy — but it’s likely at least one of them will be viable in Week 16 DFS contests.
CIN @ MIA: The Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs
IMPLIED: MIA 24.25, CIN 21.25 — TOTAL: 45.5
Over their last five contests, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points, third-most expected points, and fourth-most FPOE to opposing WRs. They have allowed top-seven performances to WRs in five straight games. Tyler Boyd is money in the bank this week.
CAR @ IND: The Panthers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs
IMPLIED: IND 26.5, CAR 20 — TOTAL: 46.5
With Marlon Mack as a touchdown home-favorite against this weak Panthers run D, he can be safely inserted into Week 16 DFS lineups.
BAL @ CLE: The Browns have allowed the 5th-most FPOE to RBs
IMPLIED: BAL 28, CLE 21 — TOTAL: 49
Fire up Mark Ingram with confidence. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most FPOE and ninth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs in recent weeks. They gave up 146 yards and a TD to Joe Mixon two weeks ago, and were exposed for 137 yards and four TDs at the hands of Kenyan Drake last week.
DAL @ PHI: The Eagles just allowed 24 fantasy PPG to three of the worst QBs
IMPLIED: DAL 24.25, PHI 23.25 — TOTAL: 47.5
The last three QBs to face the Eagles have combined for over 24 fantasy points per game. Those QBs were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, and Dwayne Haskins. Yeah, you can ride with Dak Prescott this week.
ARZ @ SEA: Chris Carson handled 45% of Seattle’s opportunity last week
IMPLIED: SEA 29, ARZ 19.5 — TOTAL: 48.5
It was his largest opportunity market share since Week 5 (also 45%), and his second-largest of the entire season (Week 1, 50%). He’ll be a total workhorse again as nearly 10-point home favorites.
KC @ CHI: The Bears have allowed the 4th-most yards per reception to WRs
IMPLIED: KC 24.5, CHI 20.5 — TOTAL: 45
Over their last five games, the Bears have allowed the 11th-most targets, 10th-most receiving yards, fourth-most yards per reception, and 10th-most RACR (Air Yards converted into actual yards) to opposing WRs. Hello, Tyreek Hill.
GB @ MIN: The Vikings pass D ranks bottom-10 in all major WR categories
IMPLIED: MIN 25.5, GB 21 — TOTAL: 46.5
The Vikings defense has allowed the fifth-most expected points, 10th-most FPOE, and eighth-most actual fantasy points to opposing WRs in their last five games. Wideout groups have topped at least 30 PPR points one each game, with an average of 41.2 scored against. This should be a big game for Davante Adams.