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16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 16

Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 16 NFL DFS lineups.

Vegas lines for Week 16

Reported lines are current as of December 19, 2019.1

Date & TimeFavoriteLineUnderdogTotal
12/21 8:15 ETAt San Francisco-6.5LA Rams45
12/21 4:30 ETAt New England-6.5Buffalo38.5
12/21 1:00 ETAt Tampa Bay-1Houston53
12/22 4:05 ETAt Denver-6.5Detroit37.5
12/22 4:05 ETAt LA Chargers-6.5Oakland47
12/22 1:00 ETAt Atlanta-6.5Jacksonville46
12/22 1:00 ETNew Orleans-1At Tennessee51
12/22 1:00 ETAt Washington-3NY Giants42
12/22 1:00 ETPittsburgh-3At NY Jets38.5
12/22 1:00 ETAt Miami-3Cincinnati45.5
12/22 1:00 ETAt Indianapolis-6.5Carolina46.5
12/22 1:00 ETBaltimore-7At Cleveland49
12/22 4:25 ETDallas-1At Philadelphia47.5
12/22 4:25 ETAt Seattle-9.5Arizona48.5
12/22 8:20 ETKansas City-4At Chicago45
12/23 8:15 ETAt Minnesota-4.5Green Bay46.5

LAR @ SF: This will be the fastest-paced game of Week 16 for DFS

IMPLIED: SF 25.75, LAR 19.25 — TOTAL: 45

According to our NFL Pace Tool, this game should have the fastest seconds per snap of all matchups this weekend,2 with a snap exited every 26.5 seconds.

BUF @ NE: The Bills have the lowest (or second-lowest) implied total on the slate

IMPLIED: NE 22.5, BUF 16 — TOTAL: 38.5

With an implied team total of 16, of 15 in some places (as in our NFL Stat Explorer), the Bills have the lowest projected points on the slate. It’s a week to fade Josh Allen.

HOU @ TB: Breshad Perriman has 17 targets in his last 3 games

IMPLIED: TB 27, HOU 26 — TOTAL: 53

And in Week 16, he’ll be the lead WR with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out. Perriman has at least 70 yards in all three games, at least one TD in two of the games, and four TDs total in this span. Perriman is a legitimate Week 16 DFS option.

DET @ DEN: The Broncos have allowed the 5th-most FPOE to WRs

IMPLIED: DEN 22, DET 15.5 — TOTAL: 37.5

Over their last five games, the Broncos have allowed the fifth-most FPOE3 to opposing WRs. Kenny Golladay busted last week with three catches for 44 yards, but he did garner a respectable seven targets. He’s not a bad contrarian play this week, though I’d stay far away in cash games with the Lions at just 15.5 projected points.

OAK @ LAC: The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most points to RBs

IMPLIED: LAC 26.75, OAK 20.25 — TOTAL: 47

With Josh Jacobs out for Week 16, DeAndre Washington becomes Oakland’s lead back and an immediately interesting salary-saving option in Week 16 DFS. The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points and ninth-most expected points to opposing RBs over their last five games.

deandre-washington-week-16-dfs

JAX @ ATL: Julio Jones saw 51% of Atlanta’s targets last week

IMPLIED: ATL 26.25, JAX 19.75 — TOTAL: 46

With Calvin Ridley sidelined, it’s the Julio show down the stretch. He saw an absurd 51% of Atlanta’s targets last week. The Jaguars have allowed the eighth-most FPOE to enemy WRs over their last five games.

NO @ TEN: The Saints have allowed the third-most expected points to QBs

IMPLIED: NO 26, TEN 25 — TOTAL: 51

Over their last five games, New Orleans has allowed the third-most expected points to opposing QBs. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, has been a fantasy QB1 in five of his last six games.

NYG @ WAS: This is the easiest matchup Saquon Barkley will have all season

IMPLIED: WAS 22.5, NYG 19.5 — TOTAL: 42

According to our Strength-of-Schedule Streaming app, this is the easiest matchup Saquon Barkley will have all season — and it comes one week after he finally lit up the fantasy scoreboard. He’s getting hot at the end, but you can trust him in Week 16 DFS.

PIT @ NYJ: The Steelers’ top 2 WRs see the exact same target volume

IMPLIED: PIT 20.75, NYJ 17.75 — TOTAL: 38.5

Over the last month, Diontae Johnson and James Washington have each handled 27% of Pittsburgh’s targets. Choosing the right one is never easy — but it’s likely at least one of them will be viable in Week 16 DFS contests.

CIN @ MIA: The Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to WRs

IMPLIED: MIA 24.25, CIN 21.25 — TOTAL: 45.5

Over their last five contests, the Dolphins have allowed the second-most fantasy points, third-most expected points, and fourth-most FPOE to opposing WRs. They have allowed top-seven performances to WRs in five straight games. Tyler Boyd is money in the bank this week.

tyler-boyd-week-16-dfs

CAR @ IND: The Panthers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs

IMPLIED: IND 26.5, CAR 20 — TOTAL: 46.5

With Marlon Mack as a touchdown home-favorite against this weak Panthers run D, he can be safely inserted into Week 16 DFS lineups.

BAL @ CLE: The Browns have allowed the 5th-most FPOE to RBs

IMPLIED: BAL 28, CLE 21 — TOTAL: 49

Fire up Mark Ingram with confidence. The Browns have allowed the fifth-most FPOE and ninth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs in recent weeks. They gave up 146 yards and a TD to Joe Mixon two weeks ago, and were exposed for 137 yards and four TDs at the hands of Kenyan Drake last week.

DAL @ PHI: The Eagles just allowed 24 fantasy PPG to three of the worst QBs

IMPLIED: DAL 24.25, PHI 23.25 — TOTAL: 47.5

The last three QBs to face the Eagles have combined for over 24 fantasy points per game. Those QBs were Ryan FitzpatrickEli Manning, and Dwayne Haskins. Yeah, you can ride with Dak Prescott this week.

ARZ @ SEA: Chris Carson handled 45% of Seattle’s opportunity last week

IMPLIED: SEA 29, ARZ 19.5 — TOTAL: 48.5

It was his largest opportunity market share since Week 5 (also 45%), and his second-largest of the entire season (Week 1, 50%). He’ll be a total workhorse again as nearly 10-point home favorites.

KC @ CHI: The Bears have allowed the 4th-most yards per reception to WRs

IMPLIED: KC 24.5, CHI 20.5 — TOTAL: 45

Over their last five games, the Bears have allowed the 11th-most targets, 10th-most receiving yards, fourth-most yards per reception, and 10th-most RACR (Air Yards converted into actual yards) to opposing WRs. Hello, Tyreek Hill.

GB @ MIN: The Vikings pass D ranks bottom-10 in all major WR categories

IMPLIED: MIN 25.5, GB 21 — TOTAL: 46.5

The Vikings defense has allowed the fifth-most expected points, 10th-most FPOE, and eighth-most actual fantasy points to opposing WRs in their last five games. Wideout groups have topped at least 30 PPR points one each game, with an average of 41.2 scored against. This should be a big game for Davante Adams.

Image Credit: Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Marlon Mack.

  1. Provided by footballlocks.com.  (back)
  2. When in a neutral (+/- 7) game script.  (back)
  3. Fantasy points over expectation.  (back)

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