Utilizing RotoViz’s suite of creative tools, metrics, and filterable stats (all of which just keep getting better!), I unearthed 16 key stats to help you crush your Week 17 NFL DFS lineups.
Vegas lines for Week 17
Reported lines are current as of December 26, 2019.1
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|12/29 1:00 ET||Cleveland||-2.5||At Cincinnati||44.5|
|12/29 1:00 ET||At Minnesota||-1||Chicago||37|
|12/29 1:00 ET||At Tampa Bay||-1||Atlanta||48|
|12/29 1:00 ET||New Orleans||-13||At Carolina||46|
|12/29 1:00 ET||At Buffalo||-1.5||NY Jets||36.5|
|12/29 1:00 ET||At New England||-15.5||Miami||45|
|12/29 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-12.5||At Detroit||43|
|12/29 1:00 ET||At Kansas City||-8.5||LA Chargers||45.5|
|12/29 4:25 ET||Tennessee||-3.5||At Houston||45|
|12/29 4:25 ET||Indianapolis||-3.5||At Jacksonville||43|
|12/29 4:25 ET||At Dallas||-11||Washington||44.5|
|12/29 4:25 ET||Philadelphia||-4.5||At NY Giants||45|
|12/29 4:25 ET||Pittsburgh||-2||At Baltimore||38|
|12/29 4:25 ET||At LA Rams||-3.5||Arizona||49|
|12/29 4:25 ET||At Denver||-3.5||Oakland||41|
|12/29 8:20 ET||San Francisco||-3||At Seattle||47|
CLE @ CIN: The Browns have allowed the 7th-most FP to RBs
IMPLIED: CLE 23.5, CIN 21 — TOTAL: 44.5
Over their last five games, Cleveland has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points and third-most FPOE2 to RBs. If the starters play, Joe Mixon is firmly in play as a Week 17 DFS option.
CHI @ MIN: The Vikings have allowed the 6th-most Air Yards to WRs
IMPLIED: MIN 19, CHI 18 — TOTAL: 37
The Bears have given up the 11th-most targets, seventh-most receiving yards, sixth-most Air Yards, and fourth-most yards per reception to opposing WRs over their last five games. Stefon Diggs is an interesting tournament play if the Vikings play their starters (they have the No. 6 seed locked up already, so they might not). If Diggs and the starters don’t play, I’d legitimately consider Laquon Treadwell as a super deep sleeper.
ATL @ TB: Julio Jones has 300 receiving yards in his last two games
IMPLIED: TB 24.5, ATL 23.5 — TOTAL: 48
And now he gets the worst secondary in football to wrap things up. This is lock button territory.
NO @ CAR: Christian McCaffrey needs 67 receiving yards to join the 1k/1k club
IMPLIED: NO 29.5, CAR 16.5 — TOTAL: 46
He’s already well clear of 1,000 rushing yards (he’s at 1,361 and counting), and he only needs 67 receiving yards to get to 1,000 in that department. He has reached that mark in five of his last six games and is coming off a season-high 15 receptions in Week 16.
NYJ @ BUF: The Bills are one of the 10 toughest Ds for RBs
IMPLIED: BUF 19, NYJ 17.5 — TOTAL: 36.5
With the Jets as road underdogs — coupled with the tough matchup — you can leave Le’Veon Bell on the shelf.
MIA @ NE: RBs have the 2nd-most rush attempts vs. Miami
IMPLIED: NE 30.25, MIA 14.75 — TOTAL: 45
The Pats need to win to secure a first-round bye, so it’s safe to say their starters will be playing. Sony Michel is in a good spot as two-touchdown (plus) home favorites.
GB @ DET: The Lions D ranks in the bottom-10 in major passing categories
IMPLIED: GB 27.75, DET 15.25 — TOTAL: 43
The Packers are still jockeying for better seeding in the NFC playoffs, so they will count on Aaron Rodgers to get them to their nearly 28-point implied total. He gets to face a Lions D that ranks bottom 10 in many key passing categories against, including passer rating (fifth-worst), passing yards (seventh), yards per attempt (fourth), and completion rate (fourth).
LAC @ KC: The Chiefs have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RBs
IMPLIED: KC 27, LAC 18.5 — TOTAL: 45.5
Over their last five games, the vastly-improved Chiefs D has allowed the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards to enemy RBs. Don’t hesitate to click on Austin Ekeler‘s name, especially as a big underdog (aka an Ekeler-friendly game script).
TEN @ HOU: This is the 4th-highest projected team total of Ryan Tannehill’s last 32 games
IMPLIED: TEN 24.25, HOU 20.75 — TOTAL: 45
And his performance is drastically impacted by implied total. He’s definitely worth a look in Week 17 DFS contests.
IND @ JAX: The Jags have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs
IMPLIED: IND 23.25, JAX 19.75 — TOTAL: 43
Jacksonville’s D continues to get shredded on the ground, as the Jags have allowed the most points, fourth-most expected points, and second-most FPOE to opposing RBs over their last five games. They have allowed top-five performances in terms of expected points in three straight games. Marlon Mack makes for a great play once again.
WAS @ DAL: This is the easiest matchup of Ezekiel Elliott’s season
IMPLIED: DAL 27.75, WAS 16.75 — TOTAL: 44.5
And it’s not particular close (see below, via our Strength of Schedule app). Washington’s D has allowed the eighth-most expected points, fourth-most FPOE, and third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs over their last five games.
PHI @ NYG: The Giants have allowed the most expected points, but fewest FPOE, to opposing RBs
IMPLIED: PHI 24.75, NYG 20.25 — TOTAL: 45
Over their last five games, RBs were expected to score the most fantasy points when facing the Giants. However, those RBs ended up scoring the fewest FPOE (fantasy points over expectation). That’s a huge pendulum-swing, and it makes Miles Sanders an interesting tournament option in Week 17 DFS.
PIT @ BAL: Slot WRs have performed the best against Baltimore
IMPLIED: PIT 20, BAL 18 — TOTAL: 38
The Steelers have a lot to play for and Baltimore has nothing to play for, so this game is hard to pinpoint for fantasy. But my bet is on JuJu Smith-Schuster making work of Baltimore’s backups out of the slot. The Ravens have allowed the sixth-most expected fantasy points to opposing WRs over their last five games, and a lot of that damage has come out of the slot. Take a look at the most recent WRs to succeed against Baltimore:
ARZ @ LAR: The Rams have allowed the 5th-most FPOE to RBs
IMPLIED: LAR 26.25, ARZ 22.75 — TOTAL: 49
The Rams seemed destined to rest their starters in this meaningless Week 17 game, and Kenyan Drake is absolutely cookin’ with fantasy finishes of overall RB1 and RB3 in his last two games, respectively. Look for another huge Drake game against the Rams, who have allowed the fifth-most FPOE to running backs over the last five games.
OAK @ DEN: Oakland has allowed the 2nd-most FPOE to QBs
IMPLIED: DEN 22.25, OAK 18.75 — TOTAL: 41
Over their last five games, the Raiders have allowed the second-most FPOE to quarterbacks and the seventh-most actual fantasy points. QBs are averaging nearly 24 PPG against Oakland in this span. This is a good chance for Drew Lock to have a statistical breakout to close his rookie season.
SF @ SEA: The Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points and most expected points to TEs
IMPLIED: SF 25, SEA 22 — TOTAL: 47
Over their last five games, the Seahawks have been brutalized by opposing TEs, allowing an average of five receptions, 63 yards, and half-a-touchdown per game. George Kittle is one of the best plays in Week 17 DFS, and not just at the TE position.