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How to Use Expected Points in the Offseason: 4 More Correlation Matrices

Last week I looked at a variety of Expected-Points-based metrics to determine which were the most stable from one week to the next and which were the most predictive of fantasy scoring in future weeks. However, fantasy football is not only a weekly game — in most formats your lineup won’t vary much from one week to the next. Also, for most of our fantasy teams, 2019 is already in the books.

So this week I want to do the same thing as last week, only with a longer time horizon. Which metrics are the most stable and most predictive from one season to the next? And how do we use that information when looking ahead to 2020?

I went back to 2009 using per-game data to construct the following correlation matrices. I removed players who changed teams in the offseason, and those who played fewer than six games in a season. To understand how to read these matrices, look back to last week’s article.

The Matrices

In contrast to the weekly metrics, no quarterback metric predicts PPR points as well as previous-season PPR points. However, there are a few subtleties that make simply chasing last year’s PPR leaders less than ideal.

First, total fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) turn out to be important. This is not because they are particularly stable from one season to the next. Rather, it’s because efficiency predicts opportunity. For this reason, PPR points in one season actually predict expected points (EP) in the next season better than expected points themselves do. Players who get a lot of opportunity and fail to meet expectations often do not see the same opportunity the next season. On the other hand, players who outperform their opportunity often see it grow in the following season.

This is bad news for some of 2019’s inefficient EP leaders at QB, such as Andy Dalton and Tom Brady. It’s good news for players who did not rank near the top of the EP leaderboard but were consistently efficient with their opportunity, such as Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins.

But the player for whom this is the best news might come as a small surprise. We know that Year 2 is the year in which QBs see the biggest jump in fantasy production. No rookie QB was more efficient in 2019 than Daniel Jones.

While Kyler Murray is likely to get the most buzz entering next season and may cost a premium,1 it’s possible Jones is the Lamar Jackson to Murray’s Baker Mayfield.

The same goes for running backs, except here we begin to see efficiency become more sticky year over year. This fits with what we’ve found about the importance of rookie year efficiency for RBs, and further confirms that at RB, just like at QB, you’re looking for not only the top scorers from last season, but also those who were among the most efficient scorers.

Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler are among the top-scoring RBs, and both have made a case to get more opportunity next season. Leonard Fournette, by contrast, ranked second in EP per game, but dead last in FPOE per game.2

Unless you count Derrius Guice, no rookie RB outperformed Miles Sanders. Sanders was routinely being drafted alongside fellow rookie David Montgomery in best ball drafts.

Montgomery, however, surpassed expectations only once in the last seven weeks.

He finishes the fantasy season as the worst rookie on an FPOE-per-game basis, which does not bode well for his long-term outlook.

As we move on to wide receiver we see that the stability of efficiency continues to increase, even if only slightly. PPR scoring predicts itself better than anything else predicts PPR scoring, but the details are important. Again, efficiency is predictive of future opportunity and future PPR scoring.

Neither Chris Godwin nor Stefon Diggs are inside the top 10 in terms of EP per game, but both are among the top five in FPOE per game (among players who appeared in at least six games). Expect their opportunity to increase in 2020.

Among players with at least 12 EP per game, no player was worse than Odell Beckham. This can be partly explained by the team change, and partly by Cleveland’s general offensive ineptitude. It’s the first season of Beckham’s career with negative FPOE, so there are reasons for optimism going forward.

The 2019 rookie WR class is filled with players who outperformed their opportunity, but no one was better than A.J. Brown. In fact, since 2000, only one rookie has been more efficient through 16 weeks — the aforementioned Odell Beckham.

If I had extended that list a bit further, several 2019 honorable mentions show up, including Mecole Hardman, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, and D.K. Metcalf. All four have surpassed 20 receiving FPOE in their rookie seasons.

We find that efficiency is stickiest at the tight end position. In fact, TE efficiency predicts itself better than it does future opportunity, which means TE is the position at which we most want to be chasing past efficiency.

Breakout seasons from Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, and Darren Waller look legit from this perspective, while the breakout we almost got from Gerald Everett looks more questionable. The demise of Zach Ertz may not have been exaggerated, as his negative 0.6 FPOE provide the counterpoint to teammate Dallas Goedert’s positive 0.8 FPOE.

Neither T.J. Hockenson nor Noah Fant ended the season with positive FPOE, though Fant was closer. The most efficient rookie TE was Waller’s teammate Foster Moreau, though he did it on only 3.9 EP per game. If we set a lower limit of at least 5 EP per game, the best rookie was Giants’ third-string TE Kaden Smith. Minnesota’s Irv Smith also comes in with positive FPOE.

2019 Expected Points Per Game

PlayerTeamPosGMsEPFPOEPaEPPaFPOEruEPruFPOEreEPreFPOEmsEPmsRuEPmsReEPPPR
Christian McCaffreyCARRB1524.85.10011.83.113.1217.4%60.5%19.6%29.9
Andy DaltonCINQB1221.8-2.820.2-3.41.50.60018.4%10.0%0.0%19
Jameis WinstonTBQB1521.61.719.12.12.5-0.30019.1%15.2%0.0%23.3
Tom BradyNEQB1521.3-219.2-1.32.1-0.70016.5%8.9%0.0%19.3
Lamar JacksonBALQB1520.99.113.35.97.73.20024.2%30.9%0.0%30
Leonard FournetteJACRB1520.3-2.90010.4-1.69.9-1.317.6%69.8%13.7%17.4
Matt RyanATLQB1420.31.318.91.21.30.20016.7%6.5%0.0%21.6
Jared GoffLARQB1520.2-1.818.2-0.92-0.90018.8%9.9%0.0%18.4
Carson WentzPHIQB15200.717.71.12.3-0.40015.2%9.3%0.0%20.7
Kyle AllenCARQB1219.9-2.318.2-2.41.80.10013.9%9.2%0.0%17.6
Michael ThomasNOWR1519.54.9000-0.119.5517.8%0.0%30.7%24.4
Kyler MurrayARIQB1519.41.116-0.93.31.90016.8%15.6%0.0%20.5
Dak PrescottDALQB1519.34.416.84.22.60.20019.4%14.5%0.0%23.7
Deshaun WatsonHOUQB1519.15.215.42.93.52.10.30.220.8%21.6%0.5%24.3
Josh AllenBUFQB1519.12.713.90.85.220019.5%24.6%0.0%21.8
Matthew StaffordDETQB8195.717.86.11.2-0.40010.8%2.4%0.0%24.7
Gardner MinshewJACQB1318.50.715.90.62.600016.0%17.4%0.0%19.2
Aaron RodgersGBQB1418.42.616.42.71.900019.6%11.0%0.0%21
Baker MayfieldCLEQB1518.4-1.917.1-2.51.30.60016.9%7.6%0.0%16.5
Daniel JonesNYGQB1218.32.415.81.72.40.70012.4%10.3%0.0%20.7
Patrick MahomesKCQB1318.26.316.75.31.50.90016.0%7.0%0.0%24.5
Philip RiversLACQB1518017.60.20.4-0.20016.7%2.2%0.0%18
Ezekiel ElliottDALRB1517.81.40011.51.16.30.317.9%64.2%9.7%19.2
Russell WilsonSEAQB1517.85.615.24.92.60.70017.0%12.3%0.0%23.4
Ryan FitzpatrickMIAQB1417.80.315.4-0.22.40.50014.5%11.3%0.0%18.1
Alvin KamaraNORB1317.70.1007.3-0.110.40.116.1%41.2%16.4%17.8
Drew BreesNOQB1017.75.3175.40.7-0.10016.1%4.0%0.0%23
Dalvin CookMINRB1417.63.60011.32.46.21.320.5%50.2%12.6%21.2
Jacoby BrissettINDQB1417.60.114.7-0.32.70.60.2-0.213.7%11.4%0.2%17.7
Mitchell TrubiskyCHIQB1417.6-1.415.6-1.620.20015.6%12.7%0.0%16.2
Saquon BarkleyNYGRB1217.61.1009.50.68.10.511.9%40.8%8.7%18.7
Jimmy GaroppoloSFQB1517.31.615.72.41.6-0.90016.8%6.5%0.0%18.9
Julian EdelmanNEWR1517.1-0.20.400.4-0.216.3013.2%1.7%19.1%16.9
Joe FlaccoDENQB817-3.315.8-2.41.2-0.90014.9%6.8%0.0%13.7
Julio JonesATLWR1416.91.7000.1-0.116.81.813.9%0.5%22.7%18.6
Sam DarnoldNYJQB1216.90.915.50.81.40.10016.1%8.9%0.0%17.8
DeAndre HopkinsHOUWR1516.31.600.10.1016.11.517.7%0.6%26.8%17.9
Derek CarrOAKQB1516.11.814.91.51.10.20015.8%6.3%0.0%17.9
Le'Veon BellNYJRB1416.1-1.5008.9-2.27.20.715.4%56.7%11.4%14.6
Nick ChubbCLERB1516.10.90011.51.34.6-0.414.8%66.9%6.2%17
Davante AdamsGBWR1015.80.9000015.80.916.8%0.0%26.5%16.7
Robert WoodsLARWR1415.8-0.60010.214.8-0.814.7%4.9%21.6%15.2
Aaron JonesGBRB1415.73.8008.93.16.80.816.7%51.4%11.4%19.5
Keenan AllenLACWR1515.60.3000.2-0.115.40.414.5%1.1%21.6%15.9
Melvin GordonLACRB1115.5-0.7009.2-0.26.4-0.614.4%49.5%9.0%14.8
Mike EvansTBWR1315.52.4000015.52.413.7%0.0%20.3%17.9
Chris CarsonSEARB1515.40.70010.90.24.50.514.7%51.7%6.6%16.1
Kirk CousinsMINQB1415.34.61451.3-0.40017.9%5.8%0.0%19.9
Allen RobinsonCHIWR1515.20.8000015.20.813.4%0.0%20.9%16
D.J. MooreCARWR1515.20.3000.4-0.114.80.510.6%2.1%22.1%15.5
Tyler BoydCINWR1515.2-0.8000.2015-0.812.8%1.3%20.9%14.4
Austin EkelerLACRB1515.14.6004.9-0.310.24.914.0%26.3%14.3%19.7
Zach ErtzPHITE1515.1-0.6000015.1-0.611.4%0.0%17.1%14.5
Joe MixonCINRB1514.5-1.5009.8-2.14.70.512.2%65.3%6.6%13
Travis KelceKCTE1514.52.2000.4014.12.212.8%1.9%20.7%16.7
Chris GodwinTBWR1414.45.3000014.35.312.8%0.0%18.7%19.7
Jarvis LandryCLEWR1514.30.5000014.30.413.2%0.0%19.3%14.8
Todd GurleyLARRB1414.30.8009.31.65-0.813.3%45.8%7.3%15.1
Odell Beckham Jr.CLEWR1514.2-1.800.10.1-0.114-1.813.1%0.6%18.9%12.4
Cooper KuppLARWR1513.92.6000.1013.82.713.0%0.5%20.2%16.5
Derrick HenryTENRB1413.94.80011.33.82.6114.2%54.6%4.8%18.7
Kenyan DrakeARIRB1313.91.4006.82.27-0.812.0%32.1%9.1%15.3
Sterling ShepardNYGWR913.90.9000.40.413.50.49.4%1.7%14.5%14.8
Christian KirkARIWR1213.8-1000.60.113.2-1.111.9%2.8%17.2%12.8
Devonta FreemanATLRB1313.81006.5-0.97.41.911.4%32.3%10.0%14.8
Josh JacobsOAKRB1313.81.10010.71.43.1-0.213.6%60.8%4.6%14.9
Mason RudolphPITQB1013.8-1.112.8-0.60.9-0.50011.4%3.9%0.0%12.7
Teddy BridgewaterNOQB813.8-0.811.41.12.4-20012.6%13.6%0.0%13
Evan EngramNYGTE813.70000.1013.609.3%0.4%14.6%13.7
Courtland SuttonDENWR1513.60.700.10.1013.40.612.0%0.6%26.5%14.3
Ryan TannehillTENQB1113.6811.66.22.11.80013.9%10.1%0.0%21.6
Marcus MariotaTENQB613.32.711.22.620.10013.6%9.7%0.0%16
D.J. CharkJACWR1413.22.4000.1013.12.411.4%0.7%18.1%15.6
Kerryon JohnsonDETRB713.2-2.30010-3.33.117.5%19.8%4.2%10.9
George KittleSFTE1313.12.7000.4-0.312.7312.7%1.6%20.4%15.8
Case KeenumWASQB913-0.311.901.1-0.30011.2%5.0%0.0%12.7
James WhiteNERB14130.10.103.1-0.69.81.110.1%13.1%11.5%13.1
Michael GallupDALWR13130.80000130.813.0%0.0%20.0%13.8
Kenny GolladayDETWR1512.83.1000012.83.17.3%0.0%17.5%15.9
Tyreek HillKCWR1112.73.5000.6-0.412.13.911.2%2.8%17.8%16.2
DeVante ParkerMIAWR1512.62.4000012.62.410.3%0.0%16.0%15
Marvin JonesDETWR1312.62.3000.1-0.112.52.47.2%0.2%17.1%14.9
Miles SandersPHIRB1512.61.6006.8-0.45.729.6%27.4%6.4%14.2
Austin HooperATLTE1212.52.5000012.52.510.3%0.0%16.9%15
John BrownBUFWR1512.52.20.20.20.2-0.112.12.112.8%0.9%22.0%14.7
Preston WilliamsMIAWR812.4-0.8000012.4-0.810.1%0.0%15.7%11.6
T.Y. HiltonINDWR912.40.4000012.40.49.6%0.0%15.1%12.8
Curtis SamuelCARWR1512.3-1.10010.311.3-1.38.6%5.1%16.9%11.2
James ConnerPITRB1012.32.5006.60.45.7210.1%28.3%8.9%14.8
Mark IngramBALRB1512.34.1009.31.732.414.3%37.3%6.4%16.4
Calvin RidleyATLWR1312.22.9000.10.112.12.810.1%0.5%16.4%15.1
David MontgomeryCHIRB1512.2-1.8009.2-23.10.210.8%58.2%4.3%10.4
Phillip LindsayDENRB1512.10.7007.71.44.4-0.710.6%43.8%8.7%12.8
Alshon JefferyPHIWR10120.2000.40.211.709.1%1.6%13.2%12.2
Amari CooperDALWR15123.50000123.512.0%0.0%18.5%15.5
Dwayne HaskinsWASQB911.9-1.410.8-1.51.100010.3%5.0%0.0%10.5
Jamison CrowderNYJWR1511.9-0.1000.1011.8011.4%0.6%18.8%11.8
Golden TateNYGWR1011.81.8000.10.111.81.78.0%0.4%12.7%13.6
Kareem HuntCLERB711.71.8003.20.98.50.810.8%18.6%11.5%13.5
Darren WallerOAKTE1511.62.1000011.62.111.4%0.0%17.3%13.7
John RossCINWR711.61.4000.1-0.111.41.59.8%0.7%15.9%13
Tyler LockettSEAWR1511.63000.1-0.111.53.111.1%0.5%16.8%14.6
Devin SingletaryBUFRB1211.51006.415.1011.7%30.3%9.3%12.5
Larry FitzgeraldARIWR1511.5-0.1000011.5-0.19.9%0.0%15.0%11.4
Marlon MackINDRB1311.41009.90.91.60.28.9%41.8%2.0%12.4
Auden TateCINWR1211.3-2.7000011.3-2.79.5%0.0%15.8%8.6
Cole BeasleyBUFWR1511.31000011.3111.5%0.0%20.5%12.3
Dede WestbrookJACWR1411.3-1.7000.2011.1-1.79.8%1.3%15.4%9.6
Sammy WatkinsKCWR1311.3-0.7000.1011.2-0.79.9%0.5%16.4%10.6
Tarik CohenCHIRB1511.2-1.3002.2-0.99-0.49.9%13.9%12.4%9.9
Terry McLaurinWASWR1411.22.5000011.22.59.7%0.0%18.1%13.7
Sony MichelNERB1511.1-1.7009.1-1.52.1-0.68.6%38.4%2.5%9.4
Devlin HodgesPITQB710.9-2.58.4-0.92.6-1.6009.0%11.2%0.0%8.4
Jordan HowardPHIRB910.81.6008.61.22.20.48.2%34.7%2.5%12.4
Mark AndrewsBALTE1510.83.1000010.83.112.5%0.0%23.1%13.9
Chris ThompsonWASRB1010.7-1.5002.1-0.88.6-0.79.3%9.6%13.9%9.2
Hunter HenryLACTE1110.51.9000010.51.99.7%0.0%14.7%12.4
Nelson AgholorPHIWR1110.5-1.8000.1-0.110.4-1.78.0%0.4%11.8%8.7
Will FullerHOUWR1110.51.7000010.51.711.4%0.0%17.5%12.2
Carlos HydeHOURB1510.400090.51.4-0.511.3%55.6%2.3%10.4
Danny AmendolaDETWR1410.4-0.9000010.4-0.95.9%0.0%14.2%9.5
Mike WilliamsLACWR1410.40.7000010.30.89.6%0.0%14.5%11.1
Damien WilliamsKCRB1010.30.9005.7-0.24.619.1%26.5%6.8%11.2
Deebo SamuelSFWR1410.21.7000.80.99.40.79.9%3.2%15.1%11.9
Stefon DiggsMINWR1410.24.3000.30.1104.111.9%1.3%20.4%14.5
D.K. MetcalfSEAWR15101.5000.109.91.59.6%0.5%14.5%11.5
Emmanuel SandersSFWR16101.60.10.3009.91.39.7%0.0%15.9%11.6
Adrian PetersonWASRB149.90.300801.90.38.6%36.7%3.1%10.2
Royce FreemanDENRB159.9-0.5005-0.54.9-0.18.7%28.4%9.7%9.4
Tevin ColemanSFRB139.90.3006.50.43.4-0.19.6%26.3%5.5%10.2
Mohamed SanuNEWR149.8-1.4000.2-0.19.6-1.37.6%0.8%11.2%8.4
David JohnsonARIRB139.71.3004.4-0.95.32.28.4%20.8%6.9%11
Robby AndersonNYJWR159.70.800009.70.89.3%0.0%15.4%10.5
Greg Ward Jr.PHIWR69.6-1.3000.109.5-1.37.3%0.4%10.7%8.3
Juju Smith-SchusterPITWR119.60.600009.60.67.9%0.0%15.0%10.2
Chris ConleyJACWR159.50.700009.50.78.2%0.0%13.2%10.2
Darius SlaytonNYGWR139.4300009.436.4%0.0%10.1%12.4
Greg OlsenCARTE139.3000009.306.5%0.0%13.9%9.3
Jamaal WilliamsGBRB139.31.4004.3-0.651.99.9%24.9%8.4%10.7
Jaylen SamuelsPITRB139.3-1.3-0.10.12.9-1.16.5-0.37.7%12.4%10.1%8
Tyler HigbeeLARTE149.30.500009.30.58.7%0.0%13.6%9.8
Patrick LairdMIARB79.2-1003.9-15.3-0.17.5%18.4%6.7%8.2
Ronald JonesTBRB159.21.2005.60.93.70.28.1%33.9%4.8%10.4
Dallas GoedertPHITE149.10.800009.10.86.9%0.0%10.3%9.9
Randall CobbDALWR149.11.20.1-0.10.2-0.18.81.39.1%1.1%13.5%10.3
Diontae JohnsonPITWR1591.5000.208.717.4%0.9%13.6%10.5
Frank GoreBUFRB149-2.7007.6-2.71.309.2%36.0%2.4%6.3
LeSean McCoyKCRB138.90.5005.20.23.70.17.8%24.2%5.4%9.4
Anthony MillerCHIWR158.8-0.200008.8-0.27.8%0.0%12.1%8.6
Marquise BrownBALWR138.82.200008.82.210.2%0.0%18.8%11
Jacob HollisterSEATE108.7000008.708.3%0.0%12.7%8.7
James WashingtonPITWR148.7100008.717.2%0.0%13.6%9.7
Jason WittenDALTE158.70.300008.70.38.7%0.0%13.4%9
Latavius MurrayNORB158.71.2004.813.90.27.9%27.1%6.1%9.9
Brandin CooksLARWR138.6-0.1000.20.28.4-0.38.0%1.0%12.3%8.5
Taylor GabrielCHIWR98.61.4000.10.18.51.37.6%0.6%11.7%10
A.J. BrownTENWR158.54.5000.50.384.28.7%2.4%14.7%13
Demaryius ThomasNYJWR118.5-0.700008.5-0.78.1%0.0%13.5%7.8
Jared CookNOTE138.53.500008.53.57.8%0.0%13.4%12
Gerald EverettLARTE128.4-0.900008.4-0.97.8%0.0%12.3%7.5
Duke JohnsonHOURB158.31002.70.35.60.69.0%16.7%9.3%9.3
Hunter RenfrowOAKWR128.3100008.318.2%0.0%12.4%9.3
Tyrell WilliamsOAKWR138.32.700008.32.78.2%0.0%12.4%11
Mark WaltonMIARB78.2-1.9004-1.14.2-0.86.7%18.9%5.3%6.3
Matt BreidaSFRB118.21.2005.40.72.80.58.0%21.9%4.5%9.4
Mike GesickiMIATE158.20.200008.20.26.7%0.0%10.4%8.4
Adam ThielenMINWR98.14.6000.50.27.64.49.5%2.2%15.5%12.7
Albert WilsonMIAWR128-1.5000.5-0.17.5-1.36.5%2.4%9.5%6.5
Eric EbronINDTE118-0.100008-0.16.2%0.0%9.8%7.9
T.J. HockensonDETTE128-1.300008-1.34.6%0.0%10.9%6.7
Alex EricksonCINWR157.9-1.400.10.107.7-1.56.7%0.7%10.8%6.5
Peyton BarberTBRB157.9-0.3005.9-0.32-0.17.0%35.8%2.6%7.6
Will DisslySEATE67.94.4000.107.84.47.6%0.5%11.4%12.3
Keke CouteeHOUWR87.8-1.1000.70.37.1-1.48.5%4.3%11.8%6.7
Noah FantDENTE157.8-0.4000-0.17.8-0.36.9%0.0%15.4%7.4
Jack DoyleINDTE157.7-0.400007.7-0.46.0%0.0%9.4%7.3
Josh RosenMIAQB67.7-3.87.5-3.80.20006.3%0.9%0.0%3.9
Zach PascalINDWR157.71.2000.107.61.16.0%0.4%9.3%8.9
Breshad PerrimanTBWR137.61.2000.107.51.16.7%0.6%9.8%8.8
Corey DavisTENWR147.50.100007.50.17.6%0.0%13.7%7.6
Matt MooreKCQB67.50.67.210.4-0.4006.6%1.9%0.0%8.1
Rex BurkheadNERB127.40.7002.90.74.5-0.15.7%12.2%5.3%8.1
Bennie FowlerNYGWR87.2-1.4000.20.17-1.54.9%0.9%7.5%5.8
Kalen BallageMIARB127.2-2.9004.4-1.82.8-1.15.9%20.8%3.6%4.3
Phillip DorsettNEWR127.20.7000.10.17.10.65.6%0.4%8.3%7.9
Delanie WalkerTENTE87.10.600007.10.67.2%0.0%13.0%7.7
KeeSean JohnsonARIWR107.1-2.3000.1-0.17-2.26.1%0.5%9.1%4.8
Raheem MostertSFRB147.13.50052.72.10.86.9%20.2%3.4%10.6
Marcus JohnsonINDWR770.4000070.45.4%0.0%8.5%7.4
Nyheim HinesINDRB1570.4001.80.15.3-0.65.4%7.6%6.5%7.4
Paul RichardsonWASWR107-0.6000.1-0.17-0.56.1%0.5%11.3%6.4
Russell GageATLWR157-1.2000.2-0.26.7-15.8%1.0%9.1%5.8
Chase EdmondsARIRB96.92.3003.32.73.6-0.46.0%15.6%4.7%9.2
Jimmy GrahamGBTE146.9-0.500006.9-0.57.3%0.0%11.6%6.4
O.J. HowardTBTE136.8-0.100006.8-0.16.0%0.0%8.9%6.7
Tyler EifertCINTE156.8-0.100006.8-0.15.7%0.0%9.5%6.7
Vance McDonaldPITTE136.8-0.700006.8-0.75.6%0.0%10.6%6.1
Josh GordonSEAWR116.70-0.200.1-0.16.80.16.4%0.5%9.9%6.7
Boston ScottPHIRB86.51.4003.10.83.40.64.9%12.5%3.8%7.9
Brian HillATLRB96.50.7004.10.52.40.25.4%20.4%3.2%7.2
Kenny StillsHOUWR136.52.700006.52.77.1%0.0%10.8%9.2
Tim PatrickDENWR76.5-1.500006.5-1.55.7%0.0%12.9%5
Adam HumphriesTENWR126.40.800006.30.96.5%0.0%11.5%7.2
DeAndre WashingtonOAKRB156.40.3003.4-0.230.56.3%19.3%4.5%6.7
Trey QuinnWASWR126.4-200006.4-25.5%0.0%10.3%4.4
Giovani BernardCINRB156.3-1.6001.9-0.84.4-0.85.3%12.7%6.1%4.7
J.D. McKissicDETRB146.3-0.4001.8-0.44.403.6%3.6%6.0%5.9
Kaden SmithNYGTE86.3100006.314.3%0.0%6.8%7.3
Parris CampbellINDWR76.2-0.4000.40.15.8-0.64.8%1.7%7.1%5.8
Damiere ByrdARIWR106-0.600006-0.65.2%0.0%7.8%5.4
Dare OgunbowaleTBRB156-0.8001.3-0.44.6-0.45.3%7.9%6.0%5.2
Darrel WilliamsKCRB1160.4002.903.10.35.3%13.5%4.6%6.4
Alexander MattisonMINRB135.9-0.5004.6-0.61.30.16.9%20.4%2.6%5.4
Geronimo AllisonGBWR145.9-0.8000.105.8-0.86.3%0.6%9.7%5.1
Kyle RudolphMINTE145.92.100005.92.16.9%0.0%12.0%8
Ryan GriffinNYJTE135.91.700005.91.75.6%0.0%9.4%7.6
Darren FellsHOUTE155.81.500005.81.56.3%0.0%9.7%7.3
Isaiah FordMIAWR75.8-0.800005.8-0.84.7%0.0%7.4%5
Jakeem GrantMIAWR105.8-1000.9-0.24.9-1.44.7%4.2%6.2%4.8
Allen HurnsMIAWR145.70.400005.70.44.6%0.0%7.2%6.1
Cameron BrateTBTE155.7-0.100005.7-0.15.0%0.0%7.5%5.6
Demarcus RobinsonKCWR155.70.400005.70.45.0%0.0%8.4%6.1
Ito SmithATLRB75.7-0.5003-0.62.70.14.7%14.9%3.6%5.2
Jarius WrightCARWR155.7-2.100005.8-2.14.0%0.0%8.7%3.6
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingGBWR145.7-0.1000.105.6-0.16.1%0.6%9.4%5.6
Steven Sims Jr.WASWR155.70.3000.60.55.2-0.54.9%2.8%8.4%6
Ted GinnNOWR155.7-0.1000.105.6-0.15.2%0.6%8.8%5.6
Dawson KnoxBUFTE155.6-0.3000.105.5-0.35.7%0.5%10.0%5.3
Benny Snell Jr.PITRB105.5-1.1005-1.10.504.5%21.5%0.8%4.4
Christian BlakeATLWR75.5-2.700005.5-2.74.5%0.0%7.4%2.8
Jonnu SmithTENTE155.51.5000.5051.55.6%2.4%9.2%7
Zay JonesOAKWR145.5-2.3000.1-0.15.4-2.25.4%0.6%8.0%3.2
Kendrick BourneSFWR155.41.100005.41.15.3%0.0%8.7%6.5
Myles GaskinMIARB75.4-0.9002.802.6-0.94.4%13.2%3.3%4.5
Taysom HillNOQB155.30.80.10.11.10.34.10.44.8%6.2%6.5%6.1
Jordan AkinsHOUTE155.20.100005.20.15.7%0.0%8.7%5.3
Rashaad PennySEARB105.22.5003.521.60.65.0%16.6%2.3%7.7
Jalen RichardOAKRB155.1-0.1001.1-0.340.25.0%6.3%6.0%5
Olabisi JohnsonMINWR145.100000506.0%0.0%10.2%5.1
DaeSean HamiltonDENWR155-1.500005-1.54.4%0.0%9.9%3.5
Gus EdwardsBALRB1550.3004.40.20.60.15.8%17.7%1.3%5.3
Irv Smith Jr.MINTE1450.3000050.35.8%0.0%10.2%5.3
Josh ReynoldsLARWR155-0.8000.3-0.14.7-0.74.7%1.5%6.9%4.2
N'Keal HarryNEWR650.4000.40.34.60.23.9%1.7%5.4%5.4
Dion LewisTENRB154.9-0.4001.7-0.43.205.0%8.2%5.9%4.5
Justin JacksonLACRB64.90.1002.20.92.7-0.84.5%11.8%3.8%5
Nick BoyleBALTE154.9000004.905.7%0.0%10.5%4.9
Jakobi MeyersNEWR144.8-0.400004.8-0.43.7%0.0%5.6%4.4
Rhett EllisonNYGTE104.8-0.700004.8-0.73.3%0.0%5.2%4.1
Trey BurtonCHITE84.8-200004.8-24.2%0.0%6.6%2.8
Ty JohnsonDETRB154.7-1002.1-0.72.6-0.32.7%4.2%3.5%3.7
Hayden HurstBALTE154.60.200004.60.25.3%0.0%9.8%4.8
Mecole HardmanKCWR154.62.9000.2-0.14.43.14.0%0.9%6.5%7.5
Benjamin WatsonNETE94.5-0.900004.5-0.93.5%0.0%5.3%3.6
Cody LatimerNYGWR144.5000004.503.0%0.0%4.8%4.5
Dontrelle InmanINDWR64.50.300004.50.33.5%0.0%5.5%4.8
Geoff SwaimJACTE64.5-1.200004.5-1.23.9%0.0%6.2%3.3
Tony PollardDALRB144.51.5002.61.31.90.24.5%14.5%2.9%6
Wayne GallmanNYGRB104.50.5002.20.12.30.43.0%9.4%2.5%5
Willie SneadBALWR154.51.5000.1-0.14.41.65.2%0.4%9.4%6
Allen LazardGBWR134.41.40000.14.41.34.7%0.0%7.4%5.8
David MooreSEAWR134.4-0.1000.10.14.3-0.14.2%0.5%6.3%4.3
Jeff WilsonSFRB84.41.5003.4110.54.3%13.8%1.6%5.9
Marquise GoodwinSFWR84.40.40000.14.30.34.3%0.0%6.9%4.8
Blake JarwinDALTE154.31.400004.31.44.3%0.0%6.6%5.7
Isaiah McKenzieBUFWR144.3-0.2000.3-0.2404.4%1.4%7.3%4.1
Pharoh CooperARIWR124.30000.104.30.13.7%0.5%5.6%4.3
Kelvin HarmonWASWR154.2-0.100004.2-0.13.6%0.0%6.8%4.1
Scott MillerTBWR104.2-0.2000.204.1-0.23.7%1.2%5.4%4
C.J. UzomahCINTE154-0.700004-0.73.4%0.0%5.6%3.3
Jordan WilkinsINDRB1340.1002.80.51.2-0.33.1%11.8%1.5%4.1
Kyle JuszczykSFRB1140.1000.4-0.33.60.43.9%1.6%5.8%4.1
C.J. ProsiseSEARB83.90002-0.320.23.7%9.5%2.9%3.9
Chester RogersINDWR123.90.1000.10.13.803.0%0.4%4.6%4
Darren SprolesPHIRB63.9-1001.7-0.22.2-0.83.0%6.9%2.5%2.9
Foster MoreauOAKTE133.91.400003.91.43.8%0.0%5.8%5.3
Josh HillNOTE153.90.100003.90.13.6%0.0%6.1%4
Malcolm BrownLARRB133.9-0.1003.40.20.4-0.33.6%16.7%0.6%3.8
Dante PettisSFWR113.8-0.70.10003.7-0.73.7%0.0%5.9%3.1
Jaron BrownSEAWR123.80.400003.80.43.6%0.0%5.5%4.2
Jeremy SprinkleWASTE153.7-0.300003.7-0.33.2%0.0%6.0%3.4
Keelan ColeJACWR153.70.5000.103.70.53.2%0.7%5.1%4.2
Tajae SharpeTENWR143.7200003.723.8%0.0%6.8%5.7
Demetrius HarrisCLETE143.6000003.603.3%0.0%4.9%3.6
Ricky Seals-JonesCLETE133.61.100003.61.13.3%0.0%4.9%4.7
Seth RobertsBALWR153.60.400003.60.44.2%0.0%7.7%4
Tavon AustinDALWR133.6-0.1001-0.22.60.13.6%5.6%4.0%3.5
Vyncint SmithNYJWR123.6-0.1000.20.63.4-0.73.4%1.3%5.4%3.5
Bilal PowellNYJRB123.5-1-0.10.12.2-0.51.4-0.63.3%14.0%2.2%2.5
Javon WimsCHIWR153.4-0.900003.4-0.93.0%0.0%4.7%2.5
Donte MoncriefCARWR83.3-2.600003.3-2.62.3%0.0%4.9%0.7
Adam ShaheenCHITE83.2-0.900003.2-0.92.8%0.0%4.4%2.3
Damion RatleyCLEWR123.2-1.300003.2-1.32.9%0.0%4.3%1.9
Matt LaCosseNETE103.2000003.202.5%0.0%3.7%3.2
Tre'Quan SmithNOWR103.22.300003.22.32.9%0.0%5.0%5.5
Darrell HendersonLARRB103.1-0.9002.1-0.61-0.22.9%10.3%1.5%2.2
Chris HoganCARWR63-1.100003-1.12.1%0.0%4.5%1.9
Darwin ThompsonKCRB1030001.8-0.11.20.12.6%8.4%1.8%3
Justice HillBALRB153-0.5001.7-0.11.3-0.43.5%6.8%2.8%2.5
Justin WatsonTBWR1230.2000030.22.7%0.0%3.9%3.2
Keelan DossOAKWR830.1000030.12.9%0.0%4.5%3.1
Robert GriffinBALQB63-1.41.30.11.7-1.5003.5%6.8%0.0%1.6
Cordarrelle PattersonCHIWR152.9-0.7000.8-0.22.2-0.92.6%5.1%3.0%2.2
Logan ThomasDETTE152.9-0.400002.9-0.41.7%0.0%4.0%2.5
Ian ThomasCARTE152.8-0.600002.8-0.62.0%0.0%4.2%2.2
Jeff HeuermanDENTE132.8-0.400002.8-0.42.5%0.0%5.5%2.4
Ryquell ArmsteadJACRB132.8-0.4001.1-0.51.70.12.4%7.4%2.4%2.4
Seth DeValveJACTE112.8-0.600002.8-0.62.4%0.0%3.9%2.2
Trey EdmundsPITRB82.8-0.3001.6-0.41.20.12.3%6.9%1.9%2.5
Anthony FirkserTENTE142.7000002.702.8%0.0%4.9%2.7
C.J. HamMINRB142.7-0.1000.5-0.42.20.23.2%2.2%4.5%2.6
Damion WillisCINWR92.7-0.800002.7-0.82.3%0.0%3.8%1.9
Mack HollinsMIAWR142.7-1.100002.7-1.12.2%0.0%3.4%1.6
Bobo WilsonTBWR62.6-1.500002.6-1.52.3%0.0%3.4%1.1
Charles ClayARITE152.60.600002.60.62.2%0.0%3.4%3.2
Deon CainPITWR122.6-0.900002.6-0.92.1%0.0%4.0%1.7
Derek CarrierOAKTE142.5-0.3000.202.3-0.32.5%1.1%3.4%2.2
Justin HardyATLWR152.5-0.400002.5-0.42.1%0.0%3.4%2.1
Kalif RaymondTENWR82.51.4000.1-0.12.51.52.5%0.5%4.6%3.9
Nick O'LearyJACTE112.50.200002.50.22.2%0.0%3.5%2.7
Ross DwelleySFTE152.5-0.100002.5-0.12.4%0.0%4.0%2.4
Ty MontgomeryNYJRB152.5-0.4001-0.31.502.4%6.4%2.4%2.1
Dontrell HilliardCLERB142.40.3000.70.51.7-0.12.2%4.1%2.3%2.7
J.J. Arcega-WhitesidePHIWR152.4-0.200002.4-0.21.8%0.0%2.7%2.2
Jake KumerowGBWR122.40.800002.40.82.6%0.0%4.0%3.2
Jesse JamesDETTE152.4-0.500002.4-0.51.4%0.0%3.3%1.9
Ryan IzzoNETE62.41.500002.41.51.9%0.0%2.8%3.9
Mike BooneMINRB62.31.3002.31.3002.7%10.2%0.0%3.6
Miles BoykinBALWR152.31.100002.31.12.7%0.0%4.9%3.4
Nick VannettPITTE152.3000002.301.9%0.0%3.6%2.3
Rashard HigginsCLEWR82.3-0.400002.3-0.42.1%0.0%3.1%1.9
Robert FosterBUFWR102.3-1.1000.20.12.1-1.22.3%0.9%3.8%1.2
Wendell SmallwoodWASRB112.3-0.2000.8-0.11.5-0.12.0%3.7%2.4%2.1
Ben BrauneckerCHITE82.2000002.201.9%0.0%3.0%2.2
Brandon BoldenNERB142.21.40010.71.20.71.7%4.2%1.4%3.6
Byron PringleKCWR122.20.700002.20.71.9%0.0%3.2%2.9
Malik TurnerSEAWR152.20.800002.20.82.1%0.0%3.2%3
Robert Tonyan Jr.GBTE92.20.400002.20.42.3%0.0%3.7%2.6
Luke WillsonSEATE82.1-0.100002.1-0.12.0%0.0%3.1%2
Marcedes LewisGBTE142.10.200002.10.22.2%0.0%3.5%2.3
Andre PattonLACWR112-0.900002-0.91.9%0.0%2.8%1.1
Andy IsabellaARIWR1320.7000.3-0.21.70.91.7%1.4%2.2%2.7
Marvin HallDETWR922.4000.101.92.51.1%0.2%2.6%4.4
Reggie BonnafonCARRB920.6000.81.11.2-0.51.4%4.1%1.8%2.6
Tyler KroftBUFTE101.9-0.100001.9-0.11.9%0.0%3.5%1.8
Maxx WilliamsARITE151.80.700001.80.71.6%0.0%2.3%2.5
Ryan SwitzerPITWR91.8-0.600001.8-0.61.5%0.0%2.8%1.2
Ameer AbdullahMINRB141.70000.6-0.11.10.12.0%2.7%2.2%1.7
Clive WalfordMIATE71.7-0.300001.7-0.31.4%0.0%2.2%1.4
Johnny HoltonPITWR141.7-1.300001.7-1.41.4%0.0%2.6%0.4
Laquon TreadwellMINWR111.71.300001.71.32.0%0.0%3.5%3
Stanley Morgan Jr.CINWR91.7-1.200001.7-1.21.4%0.0%2.4%0.5
Trent SherfieldARIWR131.7-0.800001.7-0.81.5%0.0%2.2%0.9
Zach LineNORB111.7-0.7000.5-0.31.2-0.31.6%2.8%1.9%1
Khadarel HodgeCLEWR101.6-0.700001.6-0.71.5%0.0%2.2%0.9
Luke StockerATLTE141.6-0.800001.6-0.81.3%0.0%2.2%0.8
Trevor DavisMIAWR131.60.9000.20.81.40.11.3%0.9%1.8%2.5
Alec IngoldOAKRB141.5-0.2000.6-0.50.90.21.5%3.4%1.3%1.3
Andy JanovichDENRB71.50.7000.50.410.41.3%2.8%2.0%2.2
Hale HentgesWASTE101.5-0.100001.5-0.11.3%0.0%2.4%1.4
Mike ThomasLARWR71.5-100001.5-11.4%0.0%2.2%0.5
Blake BellKCTE141.4-0.400001.4-0.41.2%0.0%2.1%1
Darius JenningsTENWR71.4-0.900001.4-0.91.4%0.0%2.6%0.5
Lance KendricksLACTE91.4-0.500001.4-0.51.3%0.0%2.0%0.9
Stephen CarlsonCLETE81.40.600001.40.61.3%0.0%1.9%2
Virgil GreenLACTE141.40.300001.40.31.3%0.0%2.0%1.7
Dan VitaleGBRB141.3-0.100001.3-0.11.4%0.0%2.2%1.2
Troy FumagalliDENTE91.30.200001.30.21.1%0.0%2.6%1.5
Tyrod TaylorLACQB61.3-0.20.50.40.8-0.7001.2%4.3%0.0%1.1
Devontae BookerDENRB91.2-0.2000.101.1-0.21.1%0.6%2.2%1
Jaeden GrahamATLTE141.2100001.211.0%0.0%1.6%2.2
Patrick RicardBALRB141.20.100001.20.11.4%0.0%2.6%1.3
Andrew BeckDENRB151.100000101.0%0.0%2.0%1.1
Brandon ZylstraCARWR61.1-0.600001.1-0.60.8%0.0%1.6%0.5
Braxton BerriosNYJWR151.1-0.100001.1-0.11.0%0.0%1.7%1
D'Ernest JohnsonCLERB121.10.2000.200.80.31.0%1.2%1.1%1.3
Jason MooreLACWR61.1-0.100001.1-0.11.0%0.0%1.5%1
Johnny MundtLARTE91.1-0.500001.1-0.51.0%0.0%1.6%0.6
Kenjon BarnerATLRB131.10.20.1-0.10.200.8-0.20.9%1.0%1.1%1.3
Mo Alie-CoxINDTE151.1-0.100001.1-0.10.9%0.0%1.3%1
Richie JamesSFWR151.10.8000.2-0.210.91.1%0.8%1.6%1.9
Troymaine PopeLACRB91.10.1000.5-0.30.60.41.0%2.7%0.8%1.2
Tyler ConklinMINTE131.1-0.200001.1-0.21.3%0.0%2.2%0.9
Austin CarrNOWR61-0.700001-0.70.9%0.0%1.6%0.3
Chris MooreBALWR81-0.300001-0.31.2%0.0%2.1%0.7
Derek WattLACRB141-0.1000.400.6-0.20.9%2.2%0.8%0.9
Drew SampleCINTE91-0.100001-0.10.8%0.0%1.4%0.9
Durham SmytheMIATE151-0.200001-0.20.8%0.0%1.3%0.8
Elijhaa PennyNYGRB141-0.5000.6-0.30.4-0.20.7%2.6%0.4%0.5
J.P. HoltzCHITE1310.3000010.30.9%0.0%1.4%1.3
Tanner HudsonTBTE81-0.400001-0.40.9%0.0%1.3%0.6
Andre RobertsBUFWR130.9-0.400000.8-0.50.9%0.0%1.5%0.5
Cethan CarterCINTE60.90.700000.90.70.8%0.0%1.3%1.6
DeAndrew WhiteCARWR70.9-0.300000.9-0.30.6%0.0%1.3%0.6
Deon YelderKCTE70.90.300000.90.30.8%0.0%1.3%1.2
Diontae SpencerDENWR150.9-0.2000.100.8-0.20.8%0.6%1.6%0.7
Marqise LeeJACWR60.9-0.1000.1-0.10.800.8%0.7%1.1%0.8
Nick BawdenDETRB100.9-0.300000.9-0.30.5%0.0%1.2%0.6
Alex ArmahCARRB140.8-0.1000.6-0.10.200.6%3.1%0.3%0.7
Chris LacyDETWR60.80.200000.80.20.5%0.0%1.1%1
Darrius ShepherdGBWR60.8-0.600000.8-0.60.9%0.0%1.3%0.2
Deonte HarrisNOWR130.80.4000.100.7-0.10.7%0.6%1.1%1.2
Geremy DavisLACWR60.80.300000.80.30.7%0.0%1.1%1.1
Patrick DiMarcoBUFRB140.8-0.1000.100.700.8%0.5%1.3%0.7
T.J. LoganTBRB100.8-0.3000.3-0.20.4-0.10.7%1.8%0.5%0.5
Antony AuclairTBTE80.7-0.400000.7-0.40.6%0.0%0.9%0.3
Cody CoreNYGWR120.7-0.200000.7-0.20.5%0.0%0.8%0.5
Daniel BrownNYJTE150.70.200000.70.20.7%0.0%1.1%0.9
DeAndre CarterHOUWR150.70.200000.70.20.8%0.0%1.2%0.9
Gunner OlszewskiNEWR80.7000000.700.5%0.0%0.8%0.7
Marcell AtemanOAKWR90.70.300000.70.30.7%0.0%1.0%1
MyCole PruittTENTE150.70.100000.70.10.7%0.0%1.3%0.8
Lee SmithBUFTE140.60.300000.60.30.6%0.0%1.1%0.9
Michael WalkerJACWR70.6-0.100000.6-0.10.5%0.0%0.8%0.5
Mike BurtonWASRB80.6-0.600000.6-0.60.5%0.0%1.0%0
Olamide ZaccheausATLWR80.61.400000.61.40.5%0.0%0.8%2
Ben KoyackJACTE90.5-0.300000.5-0.30.4%0.0%0.7%0.2
Darrell DanielsARITE80.5-0.400000.5-0.40.4%0.0%0.7%0.1
Fred BrownDENWR90.5-0.100000.5-0.10.4%0.0%1.0%0.4
Nick BelloreSEARB110.50.500000.50.50.5%0.0%0.7%1
Pharaoh BrownCLETE80.50.100000.50.10.5%0.0%0.7%0.6
Anthony ShermanKCRB140.4-0.1000.100.300.4%0.5%0.4%0.3
Keith SmithATLRB150.4-0.2000.1-0.10.3-0.10.3%0.5%0.4%0.2
Levine ToiloloSFTE110.4-0.100000.4-0.10.4%0.0%0.6%0.3
Ashton DulinINDWR90.30.100000.30.10.2%0.0%0.4%0.4
De'Anthony ThomasBALWR130.3-0.100000.3-0.20.3%0.0%0.6%0.2
Trevon WescoNYJRB150.30.200000.20.20.3%0.0%0.3%0.5
Ventell BryantDALWR70.30.900000.30.90.3%0.0%0.5%1.2
Cam SimsWASWR60.20.200000.20.20.2%0.0%0.3%0.4
Dalton SchultzDALTE150.2-0.100000.2-0.10.2%0.0%0.3%0.1
Eric TomlinsonOAKTE60.2-0.100000.2-0.10.2%0.0%0.3%0.1
Gregory HowellHOURB60.2-0.1000.2-0.1000.2%1.2%0.0%0.1
Jamize OlawaleDALRB140.2-0.200000.2-0.20.2%0.0%0.3%0
Krishawn HoganNOWR80.2000000.200.2%0.0%0.3%0.2
Chris ManhertzCARTE130.1000000.100.1%0.0%0.1%0.1
Chandler CoxMIARB12000000000.0%0.0%0.0%0
JoJo NatsonLARWR12000000000.0%0.0%0.0%0
Matthew SlaterNEWR8000000000.0%0.0%0.0%0
Ray-Ray McCloudCARRB6000000000.0%0.0%0.0%0
Tyler ErvinGBRB7000000000.0%0.0%0.0%0
Image Credit: Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: A.J. Brown.

  1. And it might be justified — Murray scored over 1.0 FPOE per game.  (back)
  2. Tied with Kalen Ballage — yeah, it’s that bad.  (back)

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