Who are the best plays for the Week 15 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 15 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Buffalo Pills||PIT -2||19||17||36|
|New Orleans Saints||Indianapolis Colts||NO -8.5||27.25||18.75||46|
DFS Week 15 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- This slate features an (expected) absurdly low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Steelers and Bills have a Vegas total of just 36. Both teams are expected to score fewer than 20 points, so the TDs could be few and far between. You’ll have to choose a few players from this game to make a roster work, but try to pick the players with the most touchdown equity because they are the only ones likely to make a difference on the slate.
- The New Orleans Saints have most of the best plays on the slate — which makes sense, considering they are the only team with an implied total above 20 to choose from. Their key players — Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas (and Jared Cook to a lesser extent) — will be mega-chalk. You’ll have to differentiate elsewhere.
Chalk: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Brees at home is always chalky. In five home games this year, Brees has thrown for 370 yards, 373 yards, 287 yards, 311 yards, and 349 yards. He has 13 TDs in those games. He’s the obvious chalk.
Contrarian: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen is on the road against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL (fourth against the pass), and he’s fairly expensive given this matchup. The game has a brutal, week-low Vegas total of 36, with the Bills as two-point ‘dogs. I flat-out called Allen a fade in my 16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 15 piece. But on a two-game slate with Allen’s obvious rushing upside, I like him as a contrarian option on this slate only.
Chalk: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Yeah, I know. Kamara hasn’t scored touchdowns. But Kamara is still scoring over 17 DraftKings PPG despite only scoring in one game all year. That’s crazy. Kamara is safe chalk against the Colts, who have allowed the 10th-most receptions to RBs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Singletary has been quietly putting up strong numbers over their last three weeks, registering at least 15.4 DraftKings points each week. He has scored at least 14.9 points in five of his last seven. Not exactly a crushing figure, but he’s cheap and will be low-owned because of the matchup (it’s not good) and the fact he burned people in back-to-back weeks as chalk less than a month ago.
Chalk: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Do I really need to write something here? Okay … I’ll write something: Michael Thomas is going to obliterate the Colts, who have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs over their last five games.
Contrarian: T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
This one is risky because Hilton is supposedly a true game-time decision, and the Colts play on Monday night. But if Hilton doesn’t play, you can easily just slot in Zach Pascal in his place, so there isn’t actually as much risk as it looks on the surface. If he plays, Hilton will not be on a snap count, so this is a good opportunity to get a slate-breaker at low ownership.
Contrarian: Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints
While Ginn has not been his typical explosive self this season — he has just one game with over 100 yards and only two TDs all year — he gets the same juicy matchup against Indy’s secondary as Thomas, and he provides some salary relief on a short slate that needs some.
Chalk: Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts
Doyle is a strong play against a Saints secondary that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points, 11th-most expected points, and 12th-most FPOE2 to opposing TEs over their last five games. Doyle is a lock button play for me if T.Y. Hilton misses again.
Contrarian: Josh Hill, New Orleans Saints
Let’s be real: Any TE other than Doyle or Jared Cook is super contrarian on this slate. I think most will go with Dawson Knox if not Doyle or Cook because Knox is so cheap, but Hill has the same floor and arguably a higher ceiling because it’s much more likely the Saints will find the end zone more than the Bills. It’s gross no matter what you do, though.
Image Credit: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Michael Thomas.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)