Who are the best plays for the Week 16 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1
DSF Week 16 Primetime Slate
|Home||Away||Spread||Favorite Implied||Underdog Implied||Vegas Total|
|Chicago Bears||Kansas City Chiefs||KC -6||25.25||19.25||44.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||Green Bay Packers||MIN -5.5||25.75||20.25||46|
DFS Week 16 Primetime Slate theory thoughts:
- All four QB options have some angle of appeal on this slate, which is rare. Your best bet is likely to find your favorite stacks and decide on the QB from there.
- There are five elite WRs to choose from: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Allen Robinson. It’s a lot of fun because it provides you with more variety and flexibility, but it’s also difficult because making the right choice is harder and making the wrong choice is more punishing.
Chalk: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes has not been blowing the lid off opposing defenses every week this season, but he’s not priced like it, either. Mahomes still has the best floor/ceiling combo of any QB on the slate.
Contrarian: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Trubisky should be the lowest-owned QB on the slate with all of the other options — Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins — all having significantly more appeal. But on a short-slate GPP, Trubisky is truly not a bad option. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games, including two games with three scores and two games with over 300 passing yards.
Chalk: Mike Boone, Minnesota Vikings
With Dalvin Cook out and Alexander Mattison unlikely to play, Boone becomes mega-chalk as a salary-saver — which is even more important on this slate given the variety of high-end WRs to choose from. Boone handled lead-back duties for part of the game in Week 15, turning 13 carries into 56 yards and two scores. He has an above-average matchup against a Packers D that has allowed the eighth-most expected points (EP) to opposing RBs over their last five games.
Contrarian: Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Williams is really cheap for a player who’s guaranteed 8-12 touches. He’s done nothing with these looks over his last two games (57 total yards), but from Weeks 6-12, Williams finished as fantasy RB15 or better in five of six contests. And the Vikings defense has allowed the third-most expected points to opposing RBs over their last five games.
Chalk: Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Here’s what I wrote about Adams in the 16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 16 piece:
The Vikings defense has allowed the fifth-most expected points, 10th-most FPOE, and eighth-most actual fantasy points to opposing WRs in their last five games. Wideout groups have topped at least 30 PPR points one each game, with an average of 41.2 scored against. This should be a big game for Davante Adams.
Contrarian: Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
Miller is averaging over 10 targets per game over his last five contests, and he will get a ton of looks yet again with Taylor Gabriel still sidelined. Maybe Miller won’t be super “contrarian” — but I do think he’ll be lower-owned than he should be given the plethora of elite WR options on this short slate (Adams, Hill, Diggs, Thielen, and Robinson).
Contrarian: Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
A fantasy disappointment all season, Watkins has the opportunity to end on a high note against the Bears, who, as noted in the 16 Stats to Know for DFS in Week 16 article, “have allowed the 11th-most targets, 10th-most receiving yards, fourth-most yards per reception, and 10th-best RACR (air yards converted into actual yards) to opposing WRs.”
Chalk: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Kelce is scoring more than double the fantasy PPG of any other TE option on this slate.
Contrarian: Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings
Over the last month, Smith has handled only three to four targets per game, but he has scored twice in this span, and the Packers have allowed the fourth-most FPOE2 to opposing TEs over their last five games.
Image Credit: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Davante Adams.
- An important note: I’m writing this column with tournaments and GPPs top of mind. Cash game plays on short slates are usually easier to figure out because the options are so thin; tournaments require quite a bit of game theory, which can be half the fun. (back)
- Fantasy points over expectation. (back)