Davante Adams caught eight passes for 160 yards and two scores as Green Bay held off Seattle to advance to the NFC Championship. Despite a 2019 campaign plagued by injury, Adams could be the second wide receiver off the board in 2020 fantasy drafts.
In a divisional round full of fireworks, a host of big names came in at the top of the fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE) leaderboard.
Receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation Leaders – Divisional Round
In researching the Game Splits series last week, I ran across a bizarre result. Aaron Rodgers was significantly better during Adams’ 2019 absence.
While these stats were obviously fluky, they were also troubling. When his star receiver played, Rodgers’ fantasy scoring, yards per attempt, and pace stats all fell far below his established levels.
Using the AYA app, we can see that Rodgers averaged 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt throwing to Adams over the last three years. That number fell to 8.3 AYA in 2019. Rodgers’ two most efficient targets were Allen Lazard and Jake Kumerow.
Kumerow only earned 20 targets, but his snaps did jump during Adams’ absence.
The Packers obviously weren’t actually a better team without Adams, but they might have benefited from keeping the peripheral players more involved. Kumerow and Lazard both averaged over 10.5 yards per target while Adams was out. The superstar then averaged only 6.8 yards per target upon his return.
Regardless, this game was always going to rest on Adams’ shoulders. Over the final six weeks, his target share climbed to 32%.
Back Over 300 in 2020?
With his epic performance against the Seahawks, he’s now scored over 20 points in four consecutive games. His problem in 2019 was never volume. He ranked No. 2 in Expected Points (EP) per game. Unfortunately, after averaging more than 35 FPOE per year from 2016 to 2018, he didn’t even reach double figures this year and slipped to No. 66 among WRs.
That’s why his explosive performance against Seattle is so exciting. His 16.7 FPOE doubled his regular season total. In fact, it was more than he’d scored in any regular season game in his career.
It was another masterful season from Kelce in 2019. He’s so good that he’s easy to take for granted, but he again dominated the TE position in all of the important categories.
For KC fans hoping this would be the year to break the Arrowhead postseason curse, it was disconcerting to hear of the IT band injury that limited him in practice. The Chiefs immediately fell behind 24-0, before Kelce posted one of the greatest individual quarters in NFL history.
That he did it while playing at less than 100% just adds to the legend.
Lockett was one of 2019’s best receivers, averaging 5.5 reFPOE per game before his Week 10 injury.
Those numbers fell to 0.5 FPOE down the stretch, and he took a back seat to emerging playmaker D.K. Metcalf in last week’s victory over the Eagles.
Lockett looked fully healthy in this one, turning in a 9-136-1 line on 10 targets. The score and six of those receptions came in the second half as the Seahawks clawed almost all the way back from a 21-3 deficit.
The Playoffs Deliver
It’s been two thrilling weeks as the NFL looks to crown it’s champion. Hopefully your hometown teams advanced this weekend and your FFPC postseason rosters included a few of the big names from our leaderboard.
As we enter the homestretch of the 2019 season, be sure to check out our new dynasty content for 2020, including the prospect series.
To do your own prospect research, locate 2020 buy-lows, or search for ways to rejuvenate your dynasty roster, make sure to check out the tools I used in this article and more.
- Box Score Scout
- Combine Explorer
- NFL Stat Explorer
- NFL Pace
- Game Splits
- Team Splits
- RotoViz Screener
- Weekly Stats tool
- Best Ball Win Rates