We are back for another season of PGA DFS. This week, the Tour kicks things off with the Tournament of Champions by heading to the Plantation Course at Kapalua. If you want an in-depth look at how the course has played in the past, check out last year’s course preview.
Checking the Chalk
Trying to parse out ownership in small fields like this is usually a fool’s errand. There may be a golfer or two that go very high-owned and a couple that goes very low-owned, but everyone in between is typically bunched up pretty tightly.
These tournaments provide plenty of opportunities for stars and scrubs lineups, largely because even the “worst” golfers in the field are still rather talented. This section will serve as a buy or sell for multiple golfers as each tournament comes and goes but we’ll just hit one this week.
Jon Rahm ($11,400) is the most expensive golfer and has been garnering quite a bit of buzz. It’s hard to argue with Rahm. He’s up to third in the world after his strong finish to 2019. Since missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s made 12 of 13 cuts. He isn’t just making cuts, though. Rahm has nine top-five finishes including three worldwide victories over that stretch. I wouldn’t be concerned about ownership when it comes to how well he’s been playing.
This is a new addition to the article for this year. It will usually be a segment on the podcast, which starts next week, so I figured I’d throw it in here for the TOC. Cameron Champ ($8,200) and Collin Morikawa ($8,600) figure to be popular options in the $8,000 range this week. I prefer Morikawa, though. Champ certainly has the distance advantage which can prove to be a big difference in Kapalua but Morikawa has an excellent course fit in his own right. It’s a small sample, but in the 8 events that he’s played on courses over 7,200 yards, Morikawa performs quite well. He averages nearly 75% GIR and more than twice as many SG: Tee to Green compared to shorter courses.
Over the past 36 rounds, Morikawa edges Champ out in everything that we’re concerned about this week. His proximity from 125 yards and in is much better. Morikawa has outscored Champ over that span. They’ve ranked 6th and 22nd, respectively, in DK scoring. I’ll find the $400 and pay for Morikawa over Champ.
We’re resetting the counter this year but just a friendly reminder on how the Cash Locks worked out last year:
- 57 of 62 (91.9%) made cuts
- 42 of 62 (68%) top-30 finishes
- 18 of 62 (29%) top-10 finishes
Here are this week’s cash locks:
- Collin Morikawa ($8,600)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
Model Results - Sentry Tournament of Champions