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PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open – Expected Birdies

We spent a weekend at the three-course rotation of the American Express out in La Quinta, Calfironia. Now we’re playing just two tracks here. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at Torrey Pines Golf Course. There are two courses the golfers will be tasked with playing. Each golfer will get one crack at the North course before the weekend, which is significantly shorter — and easier. Each golfer that makes the cut will also get three cracks at the South course. If you want to see an in-depth breakdown of the courses, check out last year’s preview article

Expected Birdies

NameSalaryExpected BirdiesPredicted - <125Birdie or Better (<125)Predicted - 125 to 150Birdie or Better (125 to 150)Predicted - 150 to 175Birdie or Better (150 to 175)Predicted - 175 to 200Birdie or Better (175 to 200)Predicted - 200+Birdie or Better (200+)Total Holes
Rory McIlroy116003.6450.2320.2220.1710.1740.386429
Jon Rahm113003.6550.2610.1920.1420.1740.393029
Tiger Woods108003.6350.2810.2410.1930.1440.352689
Justin Rose103003.4650.2510.2110.1630.1640.349589
Xander Schauffele101003.4350.2610.1920.1420.1340.343615
Hideki Matsuyama99003.5550.2800.2220.1730.1640.336986
Rickie Fowler97003.3750.2500.1920.1630.1540.3411589
Gary Woodland95003.2450.2210.1920.1520.1540.3311103
Tony Finau93003.3550.1920.1820.1810.1840.377349
Patrick Reed92003.2840.2310.220.1520.1450.329443
Sungjae Im91003.7640.2610.1720.1920.1650.372108
Jason Day90003.4850.2510.220.1620.1740.349530
Collin Morikawa89004.0640.3310.1520.0930.2940.39286
Scottie Scheffler88003.8650.2910.3120.1720.1740.35374
Cameron Smith87003.3240.2510.1820.1620.1550.34351
Joaquin Niemann86003.2550.2310.210.1530.1340.341750
Jordan Spieth85003.4340.2510.2520.1730.1440.358388
Brandt Snedeker84003.2930.2720.2120.1720.1350.2912384
Marc Leishman83003.0850.2200.1820.1630.1440.3112376
Matthew Wolff82004.0350.1910.1520.1920.3240.48175
Billy Horschel81003.1440.2310.220.1530.1640.3211083
Ryan Palmer80003.3150.2410.2120.1520.1640.3211451
Lanto Griffin79003.3650.2210.220.1520.1740.351588
Francesco Molinari79003.0630.2720.1620.1620.1250.274702
Cameron Champ78003.2650.1820.1830.2100.2140.351573
Emiliano Grillo78003.1540.2310.2220.1630.1540.314985
Jason Kokrak77003.250.2110.1720.1520.1540.3410901
Byeong Hun An77003.0950.210.220.1420.1440.333640
Bud Cauley76003.2440.2210.1720.1420.1250.337299
Russell Knox7600330.2220.220.1620.1150.278893
Phil Mickelson75003.3850.2500.220.1730.1440.3510553
Bubba Watson75003.3450.2320.1720.1610.1840.3310290
Joel Dahmen74003.1440.2310.2120.1430.1340.342894
Harris English74003.0950.2100.1920.1530.1540.3311451
Sebastian Munoz73003.5850.2600.220.1530.1740.362349
Keegan Bradley73003.1750.2200.1920.1730.1540.3211899
Matt Jones73003.1450.2200.1620.1330.1440.3411238
Rory Sabbatini72003.3130.2420.1920.1620.1550.3211747
Nick Watney72003.2650.2400.1920.1630.1440.3311562
Lucas Glover72003.1750.2200.1720.1530.1440.3410354
Talor Gooch72003.0950.2100.1820.1630.1540.322360
Denny McCarthy71003.4840.2610.220.1530.1540.382478
Cameron Tringale71003.2730.2320.1820.1410.1160.313037
Danny Lee71003.2430.2420.1920.1720.1350.319407
Sam Burns71003.2150.2210.220.1320.1540.331461
Brendan Steele71003.0850.2110.1810.1430.1440.3311269
Sam Ryder70003.4750.2800.220.1530.1240.342729
Cameron Davis70003.4550.2420.1610.1620.1940.351322
Dylan Frittelli70003.2550.2700.1720.1430.1140.321561
Pat Perez70003.2130.2420.1920.1620.1350.311080
Jhonattan Vegas70003.1150.2110.1720.1420.1540.3310028
Sepp Straka69003.5250.2510.2510.1330.1740.341380
J.B. Holmes69003.2950.2220.1810.1520.1640.3310719
Tom Hoge69003.2330.2420.220.1720.1450.36077
Carlos Ortiz69003.1850.2200.1620.1430.1440.344288
Harold Varner III69003.1650.2210.1810.1530.1340.345825
Scott Stallings69003.0150.2100.1620.1430.1340.3210924
Grayson Murray68003.3850.2210.1820.1620.1540.382779
Kyle Stanley68003.2740.2310.1820.1520.1350.3210640
Adam Schenk68003.2650.2410.1910.1430.1340.332950
Beau Hossler68003.2450.2400.1820.1630.1340.333098
Michael Thompson68003.130.2120.1920.1720.1350.39996
Sung Kang6800350.2300.1620.1430.1340.37511
Luke List67003.350.2120.1620.1410.1640.376319
Keith Mitchell67003.2550.210.2120.1420.1540.372764
Kevin Streelman67003.1840.2210.1820.1520.1350.3213115
Bill Haas67003.140.2210.1920.1320.1250.312704
Bronson Burgoon67003.150.2200.1720.1530.1240.333388
Kevin Tway67003.0850.210.1720.1220.1540.345114
C.T. Pan67002.9230.2120.1720.1420.1150.293961
Maverick McNealy66004.2150.2510.1810.2130.2540.46371
Matthew NeSmith66003.640.2510.2220.1620.1250.36374
Wyndham Clark66003.5550.2220.1920.1310.1740.411420
Chesson Hadley66003.3240.2410.1920.1520.1550.327020
Charley Hoffman66003.2850.2300.1920.1530.1540.3413297
Jimmy Walker66003.2150.2400.1920.1530.1340.3212559
Peter Uihlein66003.1350.2210.1610.1730.1440.312500
Doc Redman65003.8150.3400.1620.1730.1840.32448
Harry Higgs65003.2550.210.2510.1530.1640.34393
Henrik Norlander65003.2340.2210.1520.1520.1350.322375
Lucas Bjerregaard65003.1750.2820.1510.1220.0940.29125
Max Homa65003.0950.2200.1520.1230.1440.332557
Stewart Cink65003.0840.2410.1920.1730.1440.2910275
Bo Hoag65003.0740.1810.1220.120.150.36450
D.J. Trahan65002.9650.200.1720.1530.1240.325083
Steve Stricker64003.6930.2820.2610.1520.1660.314348
Scott Harrington64003.4850.2610.1820.1120.1340.38391
Austin Cook64003.3840.1910.220.1720.1850.352906
Peter Malnati64003.2330.2520.1920.1510.1460.275676
Kyoung-Hoon Lee64003.1830.2220.220.1120.1550.321380
Chase Seiffert64003.1650.2300.2220.230.1240.31341
Martin Laird64003.1650.2200.1720.1530.1440.3411995
Patrick Rodgers64003.0950.210.1820.1420.1440.335814
Brandon Wu63003.5540.3610.1120.1120.1150.3270
Hank Lebioda63003.3740.2810.1720.230.1440.321379
Xinjun Zhang63003.2550.2500.1920.1530.1540.321409
Jason Dufner63003.1940.2510.1920.1620.1250.2911151
Anirban Lahiri63003.1840.2510.1820.1520.1250.294444
Roger Sloan63003.1540.2110.2120.1320.1250.322197
Patton Kizzire63003.0540.2310.1920.1730.1340.315272
Tim Wilkinson63002.9530.2620.1910.1320.1160.244255
Rob Oppenheim63002.9330.2520.1820.1310.1360.242304
Aaron Baddeley62003.3140.2410.1820.1420.1450.3211315
Robby Shelton62003.2940.310.2220.1120.1150.29391
J.J. Spaun62003.1940.2310.220.1520.1350.34045
Mackenzie Hughes62003.1650.2400.1620.1430.1340.334401
Richy Werenski62003.1540.2110.1920.1420.1350.323914
Zac Blair62003.0830.2520.1810.1510.1170.245671
Kramer Hickok62003.0840.1910.1720.1420.1450.321374
Seung-Yul Noh62003.0750.2200.1820.1530.1340.327501
Fabian Gomez62003.0530.2320.1720.1520.1250.298175
Robert Streb62002.9740.2210.1820.1430.1440.39121
Joseph Bramlett62002.7750.1900.1920.1230.1140.311381
Sebastian Cappelen62002.7150.2410.1110.130.0340.3303
Kristoffer Ventura61003.450.1910.2220.2520.2440.31283
Tyler McCumber61003.350.2320.2220.1110.1740.32375
Matt Every61003.2340.2410.1920.1620.1350.38094
Dominic Bozzelli61003.250.2300.2120.1430.1540.333221
Cameron Percy61003.1740.2310.1820.1520.1150.315147
John Huh61003.1330.2120.220.1710.1360.2710191
Ryan Brehm61003.0950.220.1220.1610.1740.331495
Michael Gellerman61003.0640.210.1820.1730.2140.28323
Scott Brown61003.0530.2320.1720.1620.1350.2910475
Chris Stroud61003.0430.2320.1920.1620.1250.2812205
Jim Herman61003.0440.2210.1720.1420.1450.287504
Nelson Ledesma61002.8450.1910.1110.2130.1440.29282
Doug Ghim61002.8130.2620.2520.0420.1350.24250
Isaiah Salinda60003.5150.220.1320.1610.1740.44159
Ben Taylor60003.2750.2600.1620.1620.1750.26321
Brandon Hagy60003.2650.220.1720.1510.1440.371510
Jamie Lovemark60003.2650.2410.1620.1620.1340.335304
Vincent Whaley60003.2350.2210.1510.0730.0640.43268
Trey Mullinax60003.1950.2120.1620.1410.1840.343416
K.J. Choi60003.1230.2620.1910.1710.1270.248692
Graham DeLaet60003.1250.2200.1920.1530.1540.328668
John Senden60003.1230.2220.1920.1420.1550.39101
Kevin Stadler60003.130.2220.1920.1620.1350.36363
Michael Gligic60003.150.2300.1520.1830.1540.28305
Rhein Gibson60003.0550.2300.1620.1330.1540.291182
Hunter Mahan60003.0450.2300.1820.1530.1240.311062
Mark Anderson60002.9430.2120.1720.1420.1250.292185
Rafael Campos60002.9150.2200.2220.1130.1240.3320
Satoshi Kodaira60002.8530.1720.1920.1410.160.261821
Vince Covello60002.8250.2200.2220.1230.0340.36250
Martin Trainer60002.6150.1710.1510.0930.0940.311187
Will Gordon60002.4250.1510.120.1520.140.26125
Chris Baker60002.1130.1420.120.1220.0650.23216

Standouts

If you look at the $9,000-plus range, the golfers are relatively close in Expected Birdies. Sungjae Im ($9,100) has a slight lead while Jon Rahm ($11,300), Rory McIlroy ($11,600), and Tiger Woods ($10,800) are essentially tied right behind him. 

Collin Morikawa ($8,900) and Matthew Wolff ($8,200) are two of the brightest young stars on Tour and it’s easy to see why when you look at their Expected Birdies. They are in just a handful of golfers that are over four Expected Birdies per round in the entire field. The duo also happens to be in the $8,000 range, making them rather easy to fit into your lineups. 

In the under $7,500 range, we have a few familiar young guys paired with one of the oldest competitive guys on Tour. Maverick McNealy ($6,600), Doc Redman ($6,500), and Sebastian Munoz ($7,300) are joined by Steve Stricker ($6,400) with some of the highest upside in this range. 

Image Credit: Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Collin Morikawa.

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