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PGA DFS: Rory McIlroy has Everyone in the Rearview at the Farmers Insurance Open

We’re back again this week and heading to Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. The scoring won’t be quite as easy this week as we have a number of changes compared to La Quinta and The American Express. You can check out the Expected Birdies for this week which also has a link to last year’s course preview if you want a deeper dive into specific stats for the Farmers Insurance Open. 

Scoring Breakdown

Finish Position Category Average DK Scoring
Top 25 78
25th – 50th 62
51st – 75th 47.5
Missed Cut 22.6

Buy or Sell

Rory McIlroy ($11,600) is confirmed good at golf. McIlroy’s raw score of -2.28 puts him in elite company and he has a perfect 100 PRK score relative to the field. Golfers with a score of 80 or higher have accounted for 42% of the wins on tour despite only making up 10% of the total golfers making starts. McIlroy also happens to be ninth in Expected Birdies this week. His 38% Birdie or Better Percentage from 200-Plus Yards is one of the top marks in the field. McIlroy’s a buy because of his win equity, but you’ll need to do some dumpster diving to afford him.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900) is shaping up as one of the highest owned golfers of the week. His price tag is very palatable. Matsuyama is seventh in PRK with an 85 and 13th in expected birdies. He’s nothing if he’s not consistent. Matsuyama gained strokes everywhere but the greens at The American Express last week. Seven of his past eight starts have resulted in a 16th place finish or better. Depending on how much chalk you’re willing to eat in your lineup he’s a buy, but there’s a strong game theory case to be made for a fade if his ownership hits the stratosphere. 

Over/Under

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention at least one of the Over/Unders we did on Bogey Free this week. We set Rickie Fowler’s ($9,700) finishing position at 15.5. I took the under for a couple of reasons. He has an 88 from the PRK model this week, for one. That puts him in very solid company, historically. Golfers in that group finish in the top 10 25% of the time and in the Top 20 39% of the time. He’s coming off of a T10 finish last week and has been in solid form over the past year. Fowler has made all but two cuts in the 20 events since his last start here. 

Mid-Range Matchups

Matchup No. 1: Collin Morikawa ($8,900) vs. Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)

As far as the PRK Model is concerned, this couldn’t be much closer. Morikawa comes in with an 87 in PRK this week. Scheffler? Also an 87. Expected Birdies has this as a razor-thin matchup, as well. Morikawa is second in Expected Birdies (4.06) compared to Scheffler who’s fourth (3.86). With such a tight matchup, I’m going to lean on our Splits App. We’re dealing in small samples with both of these golfers, but Morikawa has averaged over two more strokes gained tee-to-green on courses longer than 7,400 yards. 

Matchup No. 2: Harris English ($7,400) vs. Keegan Bradley ($7,300)

These two golfers are both being talked about quite a bit throughout the industry. They will each likely soak up a fair bit of ownership in their own right, so it’s important to figure out who’s going to finish higher this week. English has a significant advantage in PRK. He comes in just under 83. Bradley, on the other hand, comes in with a PRK Score of 64. He’s going to have to overcome some pretty rough historical trends if he wants to take down English. Golfers in Bradley’s group have finished in the top 20 about a quarter of the time compared to those in English’s group who have hit that mark nearly 40% of the time. 

GPP Play

As I mentioned in yesterday’s article, Maverick McNealy ($6,600) pops up in the Expected Birdies metric once again. He has undeniable DK scoring upside even if his finish position doesn’t always reflect it. McNealy is 29th in DK scoring over the past 50 rounds despite only having one top 20 finish in that timeframe. 

Cash Locks

  • Collin Morikawa ($8,900)
  • Cameron Tringale ($7,100)

Here’s the rundown of cash locks to date in 2020:

Farmers Insurance Open - Model & Ownership Results

NameSalaryPowerRankingPRK ScoreOwnership
Rory McIlroy11600-2.2810020.5
Jon Rahm11300-1.2883.5517.5
Tiger Woods10800-1.2182.418.5
Justin Rose10300-0.8876.9716.5
Xander Schauffele10100-1.3885.213.5
Hideki Matsuyama9900-1.3985.3619.5
Rickie Fowler9700-1.6188.9810.5
Gary Woodland9500-0.6673.3621.5
Tony Finau9300-1.1481.2520.5
Patrick Reed9200-1.5187.347.5
Sungjae Im9100-1.2583.0611.5
Jason Day9000-0.3267.7613.5
Collin Morikawa8900-1.5487.8313.5
Scottie Scheffler8800-1.587.1712.5
Cameron Smith8700-1.282.2410.5
Joaquin Niemann8600-0.9177.4711.5
Jordan Spieth8500-0.6573.199.5
Brandt Snedeker8400-0.8676.649.5
Marc Leishman8300-0.9978.7814.5
Matthew Wolff8200-0.7775.169.5
Billy Horschel8100-0.6172.537.5
Ryan Palmer8000-0.767523.5
Lanto Griffin7900-0.9377.814.5
Francesco Molinari7900-0.0162.664.5
Cameron Champ7800-0.2967.2711.5
Emiliano Grillo7800-0.6272.78.5
Byeong-Hun An7700-0.1364.6410.5
Jason Kokrak7700-0.3367.937.5
Russell Knox7600-0.7875.337.5
Bud Cauley7600-1.0179.116.5
Bubba Watson7500-0.1264.4712.5
Phil Mickelson75000.8348.853.5
Harris English7400-1.2482.8912.5
Joel Dahmen7400-0.7975.495.5
Keegan Bradley7300-0.164.1413.5
Sebastian Munoz7300146.056.5
Matt Jones7300-0.5571.554.5
Talor Gooch7200-0.3568.267.5
Rory Sabbatini7200-0.8175.827.5
Nick Watney7200-0.6873.683.5
Lucas Glover7200-0.3868.752.5
Brendan Steele7100-0.4970.566.5
Cameron Tringale7100-1.0379.442.5
Sam Burns71000.1659.871.5
Danny Lee71000.4555.11.5
Denny McCarthy7100-1.4586.351.5
Cameron Davis7000-0.1464.87.5
Pat Perez7000-0.8977.143.5
Jhonattan Vegas7000-0.0362.992.5
Dylan Frittelli7000-0.1264.471.5
Sam Ryder7000-0.3968.911.5
Sepp Straka6900-0.2867.1111.5
Carlos Ortiz6900-0.8876.977.5
J.B. Holmes69000.8947.864.5
Harold Varner6900-0.0763.653.5
Scott Stallings6900-0.5371.223.5
Tom Hoge6900-0.6372.862.5
Michael Thompson68000.259.211.5
Grayson Murray68000.8947.861.5
Adam Schenk6800-0.672.371.5
Kyle Stanley6800-0.3668.421.5
Sung Kang68000.1560.030.5
Beau Hossler68000.4555.10.5
C.T. Pan6700-0.1965.631.5
Kevin Tway6700-0.3968.911.5
Bronson Burgoon6700-0.570.721.5
Keith Mitchell67000.5653.290.5
Bill Haas67000.1160.690.5
Kevin Streelman67000.0262.170.5
Luke List67000.7150.820.5
Matthew NeSmith6600-0.9477.964.5
Maverick McNealy6600-0.4369.573.5
Charley Hoffman66000.4754.771.5
Wyndham Clark66000.1659.871.5
Chesson Hadley6600-0.265.791.5
Jimmy Walker66000.1260.531.5
Peter Uihlein66000.1659.870.5
D.J. Trahan6500-0.7975.492.5
Doc Redman6500-0.672.371.5
Henrik Norlander6500-0.9878.621.5
Max Homa65000.0961.021.5
Bo Hoag6500-0.3468.091.5
Harry Higgs65000.2258.880.5
Stewart Cink6500-0.3267.760.5
Lucas Bjerregaard65000.8149.180.5
Chase Seiffert6400-0.570.722.5
Scott Harrington6400-0.265.791.5
Martin Laird64000.0162.341.5
Patrick Rodgers64000.1460.20.5
Peter Malnati64000.160.860.5
Steve Stricker6400-0.4770.230.5
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6400-0.1665.130.5
Austin Cook64000.1560.030.5
Brandon Wu6300146.053.5
Hank Lebioda6300-0.1264.471.5
Xinjun Zhang63000.0661.511.5
Tim Wilkinson6300-0.3267.761.5
Ted Potter Jr.6300146.050.5
Rob Oppenheim63000.1859.540.5
Roger Sloan6300-0.1965.630
Anirban Lahiri63000.2358.720
Jason Dufner63000.2159.050
Patton Kizzire63000.6352.140
Sebastian Cappelen62000.5753.131
Seung-Yul Noh62000.1560.031
Robert Streb62000.7450.331
J.J. Spaun62000.7749.841
Aaron Baddeley6200-0.469.081
Robby Shelton62000.7849.670
Joseph Bramlett62000.750.990
Zac Blair6200-0.0563.320
Mackenzie Hughes62000.4555.10
Richy Werenski6200-0.265.790
Fabian Gomez6200146.050
Kramer Hickok62000.2857.890
Ryan Brehm61000.4155.761
John Huh61000.1759.71.5
Scott Brown61000.6551.811
Doug Ghim6100-0.1364.641
Matt Every6100-0.570.721
Tyler McCumber61000.357.571
Chris Stroud6100-0.1164.310
Justin Suh6100146.050
Jim Herman61000.7550.160
Michael Gellerman6100146.050
Kristoffer Ventura61001.5137.660
Nelson Ledesma61001.4738.320
Cameron Percy6100-0.2266.120
Dominic Bozzelli61000.3357.070
Trey Mullinax60000.2857.892
Brandon Hagy60000.3157.41
Isaiah Salinda6000146.051
K.J. Choi60000.8149.181
Satoshi Kodaira60001.5437.171
Graham DeLaet60000.2358.721
Mark Anderson6000-0.0863.820
Vince Covello6000146.050
Will Gordon6000146.050
Alex Beach6000146.050
Chris Baker60000.652.630
Kevin Stadler60001.8332.40
Rhein Gibson60000.8848.030
Michael Gligic60000.6951.150
Jamie Lovemark60000.5154.110
Patrick Martin6000146.050
Vincent Whaley6000146.050
Michael Block60003.800
Martin Trainer60003.485.260
Hunter Mahan60001.4838.160
John Senden60001.9730.10
Ben Taylor60000.5253.950
Rafael Campos60000.9447.040
Image Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.

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