Waialae CC is playing host to the Sony Open once again this year. It is a Par 70 that plays about 7,000 yards. Last year, I broke down the course from a statistical perspective and yesterday I unveiled proximity predictions for Waialae as our new preview format.
Buy Or Sell
The big question is whether or not Justin Thomas ($12,000) can pay off his salary this week. It feels like people are forgetting just how good Thomas has been over the last few years because of a “lackluster” 2019. Since the start of 2017, he’s made 72 starts. Over that span, he’s made 63 cuts and has 10 worldwide wins. You have questions about his recent form? Well, he won last week and is in the top five of every major strokes gained category excluding putting over the last 50 rounds. He’s a buy if you can figure out the value to make him work in your lineup. Below you’ll find Thomas’ splits on courses under 7,100 yards. JT is course-proof and is in consideration every single week.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500) isn’t getting a ton of buzz at the moment. He’s No. 22 in the world and some would say hasn’t been the same guy we saw a few years ago. It’s also fair to say that it’s almost impossible to keep up the streak of golf that he played a few years ago. He’s in the -1.5 to -1 group of the Power Ranking this week. Golfers in that group have finished in the top 10 over 15% of the time. Whether or not he’s hoisted enough trophies lately is up for debate. Matsuyama’s ball striking though? Not up for debate. He has only lost strokes on approach during three events since August of 2018. We love the consistency that typically comes with that level of iron play. Matsuyama is a buy and it appears he’ll go under-owned as of the time of this writing.
Mid-Range Matchup
Corey Conners ($8,900) and Marc Leishman ($9,200) are just $300 apart on the salary scale. They both have positive splits on courses shorter than $7,100 yards, per our Splits App. Both Conners and Leishman have the potential to be popular, as well. Luckily, the Power Ranking model can help us parse out tight matchups like this. Leishman holds the edge in that department with a score of -0.54 to Conners’s -0.28. Historically, golfers in Leishman’s group have finished in the top 20 over 20% of the time compared to Conners’ group which hits that threshold at just a 15% rate.
Make sure to check out the Bogey Free podcast for the Mid-Range Matchup between J.T. Poston ($8,100) and Sebastian Munoz ($7,900).
Cheap GPP Darts
Harry Higgs ($6,700) is an interesting name that’s caught my eye this week. He finished second in Bermuda and is coming in on the back of three straight made cuts. His Power Ranking Score is -1.32 which puts him in pretty elite company this week. Higgs is fifth in the Power Ranking Model. Golfers with a similar score to Higgs have finished in the top 20 nearly 30% of the time. That would be a ceiling outcome, to be sure. But it’s certainly a result you’d take from a golfer at his price point.
Cash Locks
A reminder that the cash locks are guys we’re willing to go all-in on. They will definitely be in cash/single entry teams and often weeks they will approach 100% exposure on our GPP teams. The results so far are in the screenshot below.
This week’s cash locks are:
- Sungjae Im ($9,600)
- Chez Reavie ($8,400)
Sony Open - Model Results and Ownership Projections
| Name | DK$ | Power Ranking | Ownership |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Thomas | 12000 | -1.68 | 28.0 |
| Webb Simpson | 11100 | -1.94 | 16.0 |
| Patrick Reed | 10800 | -1.1 | 13.0 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 10500 | -1.08 | 8.0 |
| Collin Morikawa | 10300 | -1.34 | 18.0 |
| Matt Kuchar | 9900 | -0.59 | 16.0 |
| Sungjae Im | 9600 | -1.21 | 15.0 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 9400 | -0.97 | 21.0 |
| Marc Leishman | 9200 | -0.54 | 16.0 |
| Charles Howell III | 9100 | -0.57 | 18.0 |
| Abraham Ancer | 9000 | -0.62 | 11.0 |
| Corey Conners | 8900 | -0.28 | 13.0 |
| Alex Noren | 8800 | -0.53 | 3.0 |
| Kevin Kisner | 8700 | -0.28 | 13.0 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 8600 | -0.82 | 11.0 |
| Cameron Smith | 8500 | -0.39 | 11.0 |
| Chez Reavie | 8400 | -0.93 | 16.0 |
| Brendon Todd | 8300 | -1.6 | 8.0 |
| Brian Harman | 8200 | -1.13 | 13.0 |
| J.T. Poston | 8100 | -0.79 | 23.0 |
| Andrew Putnam | 8000 | -0.57 | 9.0 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 7900 | -1.24 | 17.0 |
| Brian Stuard | 7900 | -0.91 | 15.0 |
| Russell Knox | 7800 | -0.78 | 11.0 |
| Aaron Wise | 7800 | -0.64 | 3.0 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 7700 | -1.15 | 8.0 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 7700 | -1.11 | 5.0 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 7600 | -0.43 | 13.0 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 7600 | -1.01 | 12.0 |
| Ryan Palmer | 7500 | -0.34 | 13.0 |
| Lanto Griffin | 7500 | -0.74 | 12.0 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 7400 | -1.21 | 9.0 |
| Zach Johnson | 7400 | -0.51 | 6.0 |
| Pat Perez | 7400 | -0.81 | 6.0 |
| Daniel Berger | 7300 | -0.53 | 8.0 |
| Shugo Imahira | 7300 | 0.62 | 6.0 |
| Brian Gay | 7200 | -0.73 | 4.0 |
| Keegan Bradley | 7200 | 0.47 | 5.0 |
| Matt Jones | 7200 | -0.77 | 2.0 |
| Scott Piercy | 7100 | -0.52 | 9.0 |
| Joel Dahmen | 7100 | -0.57 | 4.0 |
| Russell Henley | 7100 | 0.02 | 2.0 |
| Kyle Stanley | 7000 | -0.51 | 8.0 |
| Ryan Armour | 7000 | -0.71 | 6.0 |
| Bud Cauley | 6900 | -0.9 | 4.0 |
| Fabian Gomez | 6900 | 1 | 2.0 |
| Sung Kang | 6900 | 0.37 | 1.0 |
| Brice Garnett | 6900 | -0.93 | 1.0 |
| Patton Kizzire | 6900 | 0.41 | 1.0 |
| Graeme McDowell | 6800 | -0.35 | 11.0 |
| Adam Long | 6800 | -0.56 | 4.0 |
| Nate Lashley | 6800 | -0.32 | 4.0 |
| Talor Gooch | 6800 | -0.16 | 3.0 |
| Tyler Duncan | 6800 | -0.49 | 3.0 |
| Jimmy Walker | 6800 | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| Kevin Tway | 6800 | 0.18 | 3.0 |
| Keith Mitchell | 6800 | 0.11 | 1.0 |
| Charley Hoffman | 6700 | 0.43 | 6.0 |
| Xinjun Zhang | 6700 | -0.66 | 4.0 |
| Chris Kirk | 6700 | 0.12 | 2.0 |
| Harry Higgs | 6700 | -1.32 | 3.0 |
| D.J. Trahan | 6700 | -1.03 | 1.0 |
| Zac Blair | 6700 | -0.04 | 1.0 |
| Henrik Norlander | 6700 | -0.47 | 1.0 |
| Nick Taylor | 6700 | -0.9 | 1.0 |
| Doc Redman | 6600 | -0.81 | 8.0 |
| Hudson Swafford | 6600 | 0.54 | 1.0 |
| Luke List | 6600 | 0.45 | 1.0 |
| Robby Shelton | 6600 | -0.01 | 1.0 |
| Sam Burns | 6600 | -0.13 | 1.0 |
| Robert Streb | 6600 | -0.43 | 1.0 |
| David Hearn | 6600 | -0.47 | 1.0 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 6600 | 0.39 | 0.0 |
| Mark Hubbard | 6500 | -0.87 | 5.0 |
| Troy Merritt | 6500 | -0.5 | 1.0 |
| Sam Ryder | 6500 | -0.08 | 1.0 |
| Adam Schenk | 6500 | -0.23 | 1.0 |
| Jason Dufner | 6500 | -0.03 | 0.0 |
| Kramer Hickok | 6500 | 0.06 | 0.0 |
| Scott Brown | 6500 | 0.14 | 0.0 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 6500 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| Scott Harrington | 6400 | -0.29 | 2.0 |
| Matthew NeSmith | 6400 | -0.66 | 1.0 |
| Brendan Steele | 6400 | 0.09 | 0.0 |
| J.J. Spaun | 6400 | 0.85 | 0.0 |
| Chesson Hadley | 6400 | 0.03 | 0.0 |
| Cameron Davis | 6400 | 0.63 | 0.0 |
| Hank Lebioda | 6400 | -0.04 | 0.0 |
| Cameron Percy | 6400 | -0.63 | 0.0 |
| James Hahn | 6300 | -0.03 | 2.0 |
| Matt Every | 6300 | -0.29 | 2.0 |
| Andrew Landry | 6300 | -0.16 | 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 6300 | 0.25 | 1.0 |
| Michael Thompson | 6300 | 0.34 | 0.0 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 6300 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Doug Ghim | 6300 | -0.23 | 0.0 |
| Chase Seiffert | 6300 | -0.17 | 0.0 |
| Peter Malnati | 6300 | 0.15 | 0.0 |
| Tom Hoge | 6300 | -0.29 | 0.0 |
| Jim Herman | 6200 | 0.69 | 2.0 |
| Jerry Kelly | 6200 | 0.44 | 1.0 |
| Jamie Lovemark | 6200 | 0.78 | 1.0 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 6200 | 0.75 | 1.0 |
| Sepp Straka | 6200 | -0.38 | 1.3 |
| Bo Hoag | 6200 | -0.32 | 0.5 |
| Tyler McCumber | 6200 | 0.08 | 0.5 |
| Roger Sloan | 6200 | -0.17 | 0.5 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 6200 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Brandon Hagy | 6200 | 1.01 | 0.5 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 6200 | 0.45 | 0.5 |
| Ben Martin | 6100 | 0.81 | 1.0 |
| Graham DeLaet | 6100 | 0.19 | 1.0 |
| Rafael Campos | 6100 | -0.16 | 1.0 |
| Ryan Brehm | 6100 | 0.08 | 1.0 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 6100 | 1.12 | 0.5 |
| Will Gordon | 6100 | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | 6100 | 3.51 | 0.5 |
| Ryuko Tokimatsu | 6100 | 1.06 | 0.5 |
| Ben Taylor | 6100 | 0.59 | 0.5 |
| Ted Potter Jr. | 6100 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Rob Oppenheim | 6100 | 0.24 | 0.5 |
| Rhein Gibson | 6100 | 0.03 | 0.5 |
| Joseph Bramlett | 6100 | 0.08 | 0.2 |
| Kazuki Higa | 6000 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Tyler Ota | 6000 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Alex Beach | 6000 | 5.61 | 0.2 |
| Michael Gellerman | 6000 | 1.65 | 0.2 |
| Tim Wilkinson | 6000 | 0.02 | 0.2 |
| Bo Van Pelt | 6000 | 2.07 | 0.2 |
| Martin Trainer | 6000 | 2.24 | 0.2 |
| Vijay Singh | 6000 | 0.88 | 0.2 |
| Parker McLachlin | 6000 | 1.27 | 0.2 |
| Colt Knost | 6000 | 1.18 | 0.2 |
| Smylie Kaufman | 6000 | 5.32 | 0.2 |
| Michael Gligic | 6000 | 0.81 | 0.2 |
| Eric Dugas | 6000 | 1.65 | 0.2 |
| Chris Baker | 6000 | 0.55 | 0.2 |
